Israeli Strike on Iran Provides Potential Off-Ramp to Hostilities

Happy Monday! We have to hand it to Miami Heat legend Dwyane Wade for keeping his composure when the Heat unveiled a new statue of him that looks … literally nothing like him. 

But even if he kept a straight face, we all knew what he meant when he stood behind the podium and self-deprecatingly said, “This is crazy—who is that guy?” 

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

• Vice President Kamala Harris held a rally Friday in Houston where, joined by Beyoncé, she focused her message on abortion as Election Day closes in with the race locked in a dead heat. Harris also visited Philadelphia on Sunday, speaking at a church and attempting to court votes in historically black and Latino neighborhoods, and argued that “we have an opportunity to turn the page” on the Trump era. On Tuesday, she plans to speak to 20,000 people at the Ellipse in Washington, D.C., where then-President Donald Trump spoke to the crowd that later marched to the Capitol building on January 6, 2021. 
• Former President Trump campaigned in Michigan and Pennsylvania on Saturday. While in Michigan, Trump invited several Muslim leaders on stage with him in an effort to win support among Muslim voters frustrated by the Biden administration’s policy on Israel. On Sunday, at a Trump rally in Madison Square Garden in New York City, several speakers engaged in racist language toward immigrants and Latinos. When the former president took the stage, he repeated baseless conspiracy theories about the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s response to Hurricane Helene, described journalists as the “enemy of the people,” and called the U.S. an “occupied country,” promising to launch a massive deportation program aimed at illegal immigrants. 
• Israel overnight on Friday struck Iran in retaliation for Tehran’s October 1 ballistic missile attack. In the early hours of Saturday morning local time, Israeli fighter jets struck military targets across Iran, including ballistic missile production sites and air defense systems. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the attack met all of Israel’s objectives and “hit hard Iran’s defense capabilities and its ability to produce missiles that are aimed at us.” Israel did not target energy or nuclear sites, reportedly at U.S. urging. Iranian state media downplayed the apparently significant damage to the military installations, and it’s unclear how Iran will respond if at all—though several major targets would now be undefended by air defenses if Tehran provoked another Israeli attack. 
• Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said on Sunday that his government had proposed a two-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, during which four Israeli hostages would be released by Hamas in exchange for the release of some Palestinian prisoners currently in Israeli jails and the delivery of additional aid to the Gaza Strip. El-Sisi made his proposal as the chief of Mossad, David Barnea, headed to Doha, Qatar, on Sunday for truce talks with CIA Director William Burns and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani. Israel is reportedly examining the possibility of a small deal with Hamas—which is not directly involved in this round of talks—to learn more about the terrorist group’s decision-making process after the death of its leader, Yahya Sinwar, earlier this month. 
• Three journalists were reportedly killed on Friday by an Israeli airstrike that struck the guesthouses where they were sleeping. The Israel Defense Forces said the strike—which apparently did not come with any warning to those in the area—targeted Hezbollah infrastructure, but later said that the incident was under review. 
• The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump, has had regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin since 2022. During one of the conversations, Putin reportedly asked Musk to refrain from activating his satellite internet service Starlink over Taiwan as a favor to Chinese President Xi Jinping. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said on Friday that the reports should prompt an investigation into Musk’s ties to Russia; his SpaceX is a key contractor for NASA. Musk has not denied the allegations, but ridiculed them in a tweet on Friday. 
• Georgian Dream (GD), the pro-Russian ruling party of the Caucasus country of Georgia, declared victory in Saturday’s parliamentary elections with 54 percent of the vote. The two main opposition parties, the Coalition for Change and the United National Movement, both pro-European, have disputed the results, pointing to significant evidence of violence, disorder, and interference at polling stations by GD-aligned actors. 
• Tech giant Microsoft published research last week claiming that Chinese-controlled social media bots are targeting Republican politicians in Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, and Florida, in a campaign that has “parroted antisemitic messages, amplified accusations of corruption and promoted opposition candidates.” The GOP lawmakers—including Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, Sen. Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida—were targeted for their opposition to China. Meanwhile, the Associated Press reported Friday that Chinese hackers have also targeted the cell phones used by Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Harris, Republican nominee former President Trump, and his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance. 
• Japan’s ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), is set to lose its majority in the lower house of the Japanese parliament for the first time since 2009, Japan’s NHK public television said on Sunday. A change in government is not expected, but losing the majority will be a major obstacle for the LDP and its new leader, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who may have to find a third party to join his ruling coalition and may struggle to get his initiatives through parliament. The losses have been attributed to the LDP’s well-publicized financial scandals in recent years.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday that his government “will offer a range of responses” if Western nations give Ukraine permission to strike targets deep inside Russia with long-range missiles, long a priority of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. On Saturday, Russian drone and missile attacks on residential areas in Kyiv and central Ukraine killed a teenager and wounded dozens of people. Meanwhile, U.S. and Ukrainian officials said on Friday that North Korean troops are now stationed in Russia’s Kursk region and are expected to participate in efforts to push Ukrainian forces out of the Russian enclave they seized in August. 
• Phil Lesh, a founding member of the Grateful Dead and the band’s bassist, passed away Friday at the age of 84. Lesh learned to play the bass in 1964 at Jerry Garcia’s suggestion, when the guitarist was looking for a bassist for his band, The Warlocks. That band was later renamed the Grateful Dead, and Lesh became an influential bassist who wrote the music for hits like “Box of Rain.”  

Up or Down the Escalation Ladder? 

On October 1, Iran fired some 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in only its second-ever direct attack on the Jewish state—at least notionally as retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah—killing one Palestinian in the West Bank and injuring two Israelis.

For 25 days, Israel promised a harsh response, and early on Saturday local time, it finally came, in the form of the largest Israeli attack on Iran in history—and one of the few for which it openly and immediately claimed responsibility. 

It’s not clear whether or how Iran will respond to what Israel called “targeted and precise” attacks on Iranian military targets, though the strikes certainly make Iran more vulnerable to future waves of Israeli attacks if it responds by escalating the conflict between the two foes. 

In the aftermath of the October 1 attack, the United States—which had helped fend off ballistic missiles with U.S. naval assets stationed in the region—at first appeared supportive of a forceful Israeli response, though the support became more qualified in the intervening days and weeks. President Joe Biden and the leaders of the G7 countries urged Israel to respond “proportionately” in the days following Iran’s attack, and Biden and other U.S. senior officials publicly discouraged Israel from striking Iranian energy infrastructure—like oil refineries or petrochemical plants—or sites associated with the Iranian nuclear program, for fear it could fuel an escalatory spiral. 

“We listen to the opinion of the U.S., but we will make our final decisions based on our national interests,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said earlier this month in response to reports that he had given Biden assurances in a phone call that Israel would not strike energy or nuclear program sites. 

When Israel’s attack did come overnight on Friday, it appeared to heed U.S. pleas, employing seemingly calibrated strikes against Iranian military sites. Israel struck Iranian targets in waves over four hours. Israel reportedly deployed some 100 aircraft, including U.S.-made F-35 stealth fighter jets, flying a first sortie through hostile airspace in Iraq and Syria to destroy air defenses there before subsequent waves targeted Iran.    

In subsequent strikes, Israeli jets fired on Iranian military targets, including air defense systems and missile production capabilities. Several Israeli fighter planes reportedly breached Iranian airspace, though many of the Israeli jets involved attacked from outside Iranian territory. 

Though the full extent of the damage is unclear, Israel reportedly struck facilities involved in the production of ballistic missiles like the ones used to bombard Israel earlier this month. Axios’ Barak Ravid reported that the missile production facilities sustained enough damage to impede Iran’s ability to resupply its proxies in the region like Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen. The attacks could also affect the Iranian regime’s calculus in retaliating. “I think the inventory is still there, but they’re going to be much more cautious about using it, given the fact that their production capabilities for missiles have been so damaged,” Mark Dubowitz, the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told TMD. 

The targets—even if they were in line with U.S. requests—came close to crossing that line. Israeli jets reportedly destroyed the air defense systems guarding oil and petrochemical refineries and a large oil field, though it didn’t strike the energy assets themselves. Israel also reportedly hit the Parchin military site, which, according to the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency, was once used as a testing site for the Iranian nuclear weapons program—though Israeli forces apparently refrained from striking any active nuclear research sites. 

The strikes are strategic, should there be another series of tit-for-tat retaliations: Iran’s major military assets are now largely undefended by Iranian air defenses and vulnerable to subsequent Israeli attacks. “The message is that we don’t want an escalation but if Iran decides to escalate and attack Israel again, this means that we have increased our range of freedom of movement in the Iranian skies,” an Israeli official told the Wall Street Journal. 

At an event marking the anniversary on the Hebrew calendar of the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas—a symbolic date for an Israeli strike—Netanyahu said Israel’s attack had been a success. “The attack in Iran was precise and powerful, achieving all of its objectives,” he said. Israel’s retaliation always seemed likely to come before the U.S. presidential elections next week. 

Iranian state media seemed to try to minimize the damage in the immediate aftermath of the strike, and while Iranian officials said they had a right to retaliate, they didn’t issue any immediate promises to do so. The damage from the strikes “should not be exaggerated nor downplayed,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, opaquely, on Saturday. 

U.S. officials said Saturday that the U.S. would come to Israel’s defense—as it did earlier this month, and during the previous Iranian attack in April—if Iran decided to strike again. “Should Iran choose to respond, we are fully prepared to once again defend against any attack,” a senior administration official said. “We recently deployed a THAAD battery, which is a ballistic missile defense system, to Israel. And we have worked to strengthen Israel’s air defense systems in the run-up to tonight’s response.”

If there is another back-and-forth, the first round could be a harbinger of what’s to come in the next. “I think the messaging [from Israel] was also very important,” Dubowitz said. “If this continues, ‘We’re going to take out your energy infrastructure. We’re going to take out your nuclear sites, even though, this time around, we just took out your air defense systems that protect it.’”

Iran seems likely to wait until after the U.S. election to act, if it acts at all, calibrating its response to whether it will see a Harris or Trump administration come January. And after weeks of an Israeli onslaught, Hezbollah—previously considered a reliable insurance policy against Israeli action against Iran, with its once-robust missile and rocket arsenal trained on Israel—likely doesn’t have the capabilities to provide the deterrent effect it once could, further complicating a potential Iranian response. 

But even a degraded Iran is still dangerous. “If that’s the case, and Khamenei is seeing himself now as increasingly defenseless,” Dubowitz told TMD, “this may be the time where he does move on a nuclear weapon and plays the nuclear ‘queen’ in order to protect the regime ‘king.’”

Worth Your Time

• America’s 250th anniversary is coming up in 2026, and the American Enterprise Institute is commissioning essays on its main themes by dozens of major thinkers. “That we can mark the anniversary of such a moment offers us an opportunity for gratitude and celebration,” Yuval Levin wrote in the introductory essay. “The authors of the Declaration of Independence, and the people whom they led and represented, would surely have been surprised that their achievement has lasted for two and a half centuries—and that the nation they launched has become the most prosperous and dynamic society in history. We should be thankful to be the beneficiaries of their sacrifices and to have the chance to build on what they left us.” 
• Is the NFL recovering from the “concussion crisis” of the 2010s? Yes, argued Reeves Wiedeman at New York Magazine—but that doesn’t mean the sport has become much safer. “Even the people most affected by those hits—the ones reporting their concussions—don’t seem to want to take the violence completely out of football. On Wednesday, the same day Tua Tagovailoa returned to the Dolphins practice field, Grayson McCall, the 23-year-old starting quarterback for North Carolina State University’s football team, announced that he was retiring from football in the middle of the season. McCall has a history of concussions and suffered another brutal hit earlier this month when three defensive players crashed into him at once and sent his helmet flying through the air. ‘I have battled injuries my whole career, but this is one that I cannot come back from,’ McCall wrote in an Instagram post announcing his retirement. But he wasn’t turning his back on football. McCall said he wanted to get into coaching, to ‘serve and lead the next group of kids with a dream.’”

Presented Without Comment

The Guardian: [Washington Post Owner Jeff] Bezos Faces Criticism After Executives Met With Trump on Day of Post’s Non-Endorsement

The Post on Friday announced it would not endorse a candidate in the 5 November election after its editorial board had already drafted its endorsement of Kamala Harris.

Friday’s announcement did not mention Amazon or Blue Origin. But within hours, high-ranking officials of the latter company briefly met with Trump after a campaign speech in Austin, Texas, as the Republican nominee seeks a second presidency.

Also Presented Without Comment

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In the Zeitgeist

Our hearts go out to Declan after this crazy Hail Mary scoring pass from Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels to Noah Brown as time expired secured an 18-15 win over the Chicago Bears for the Commanders. 

Toeing the Company Line

• In this month’s Dispatch Monthly Mailbag, Employee No. 1 Valerie Smith answered your questions about going to Wheaton College, Dispatch culture, and what it was like to work for a company with no name. 
• In the newsletters: The Dispatch Politics crew reported on the GOP’s Nevada push, Nick explored (🔒) the limits of cross-political friendship, Jonah examined how “fascism” lost its power as a political insult, Chris gave us seven counties to watch on Election Night, and Father Robert Sirico reflected on the Vatican’s Synod on Synodality in Dispatch Faith. 
• On the podcasts:  In this weekend’s edition of The Remnant, Jonah reflects on Tucker Carlson and “the ‘F’ word”—that is, fascism.
• On the site over the weekend: Ryan Shinkel wrote about the evolution of horror films, Luis defended “Pulp Fiction” 30 years after its release, Paul D. Miller argued that the Yankees-Dodgers rivalry is the greatest in baseball, Nadya Williams reviewed a new series of essays reflecting on the famed poet and author Wendell Berry by the agrarian ethicist Norman Wirzba. 
• On the site today: John Aziz takes a look at what Gaza could be like post-Sinwar, and Kevin Carroll argues the CIA has responded woefully to its workplace sexual assault problems.

Let Us Know

How do you think a Harris and Trump administration would differ significantly on Iran policy?