Heading into Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s confirmation hearings, his allies were confident that at least one or two members of the Democratic caucus, such as Bernie Sanders of Vermont or John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, would vote to confirm Kennedy as secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services—more than enough to offset any Republican “no” votes.
But after two days of hearings in which Kennedy was slippery on questions about vaccines and uninformed about basic authorities he’d have as HHS secretary, it’s conceivable that Kennedy could get zero Democratic votes and even lose the vote of Bill Cassidy, the Republican senator from Louisiana who chaired Thursday’s confirmation hearing.
Combine a potential shutout among Democrats with the skepticism of Cassidy—plus a few more Republicans who have already shown some willingness to reject Trump nominees—and there is a real but uncertain path to Kennedy’s defeat in the Senate.
“I’m not really sure how much support is going to emerge after that,” Fetterman told CNN on Wednesday night. “I think we can all agree that was a really difficult performance.”
Kennedy’s opposition to and skepticism of vaccines took center stage in the hearings on both days. At times, Kennedy flip-flopped on or simply denied past comments. He now says he supports vaccines for polio and measles and wouldn’t discourage parents from vaccinating their children. But in a 2021 podcast, he said: “I see somebody on a hiking trail carrying a little baby and I say to him, ‘Better not get him vaccinated.’”
“I’ve been struggling with your nomination,” Cassidy said at the end of Thursday’s hearing. Does “a 71-year-old man who spent decades criticizing vaccines—and who’s financially invested in finding fault with vaccines—can he change his attitudes and approach now that he’ll have the most important position influencing vaccine policy in the United States? Will you continue what you have been, or will you overturn a new leaf at age 70?”
At other times, Kennedy equivocated. He said on Thursday that he “will support the CDC schedule” that recommends what vaccines children should get, but that left plenty of wiggle room for appointing people to the advisory committee that could change the CDC schedule.
Thursday’s hearing ended almost exactly as it had begun, with Cassidy and Sanders asking Kennedy to unequivocally say that vaccines don’t cause autism. Kennedy repeatedly deflected by replying that he would look at the science.
“That is a very troubling response, because the studies are there. Your job is to have looked at those studies as an applicant for this job,” said Sanders.
Cassidy recited research broadly looking at a number of studies that found no link between vaccines and autism, and Kennedy replied there are “there are other studies” that show “the opposite.”
Kennedy’s comments on vaccines and autism are just one reason the hearings put his confirmation in doubt. In an exchange with Massachusetts Democrat Elizabeth Warren on Wednesday, Kennedy refused to commit to not profiting from any lawsuits filed against drug companies during his tenure as HHS secretary or for four years afterward. “This ought to be disqualifying,” a Wall Street Journal editorial said of Kennedy’s comments to Warren. In a recent ethics filing, Kennedy said he was entitled to continue taking a 10 percent fee for a successful lawsuit against a vaccine manufacturer in a case he had referred to his law firm.
Asked by Colorado Democrat Michael Bennet about past comments promoting the conspiracy theory that COVID-19 may have been genetically engineered to spare people who are Chinese or Jewish, Kennedy said he was just citing a study. But that study did not say anything about the possibility COVID had been genetically engineered.
Kennedy also failed to demonstrate a basic understanding of Medicare and Medicaid—massive programs over which the HHS secretary has oversight. Kennedy said the big problem with Medicaid is that “the premiums are too high, the deductibles are too high.” Medicaid programs generally don’t have any premiums. He was also shaky when quizzed about Medicare.
He also stumbled Wednesday when Nevada Democrat Catherine Cortez-Masto asked him whether the Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act (EMTALA) ever mandates abortion in states that have enacted restrictions. Guidance issued by Biden HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra about EMTALA and abortion is at the center of a complicated lawsuit that made its way to the Supreme Court. “I don’t know,” Kennedy told Cortez-Masto on Wednesday. Asked what authority he had as HHS secretary to enforce EMTALA, Kennedy said: “My understanding is that I have budgetary power, and that it’s pretty much limited to that.” Cortez-Masto pointed out that the department investigates EMTALA violations.
Although former Vice President Mike Pence and the editors of National Review have called on pro-life senators to reject Kennedy over his support for an expansive right to abortion, pro-life senators seemed content with Kennedy’s commitments to do whatever Trump wants on the issue. On Thursday afternoon, Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, the largest pro-life group in the country, announced the group was “encouraged” by Kennedy’s comments and would not score the vote on Kennedy.
Still, if Democrats unanimously oppose Kennedy, there’s a decent chance that there could be four Republican votes necessary to defeat him. In addition to Cassidy, Mitch McConnell, a polio survivor, is another potential “no” vote. McConnell, plus moderates Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, already voted against a Trump Cabinet nominee once when Pete Hegseth’s nomination came up for a vote to be secretary of defense. During Thursday’s committee hearing, Collins asked serious questions without tipping her hand about how she would vote, while Murkowski was more conciliatory toward Kennedy. The Alaska senator requested that Kennedy speak positively about vaccines but didn’t actually ask him any questions about vaccines. Utah freshman John Curtis is another Republican senator who could conceivably vote against Kennedy.
As a doctor and chairman of the health committee vetting Kennedy, Cassidy’s vote could be the most influential of all. Cassidy left the door open to Kennedy reassuring him, but the Louisiana senator seemed genuinely anguished about the harm Kennedy could do as the United States’ top public-health official.
At the end of Thursday’s hearing, Cassidy recounted the story of an 18-year-old woman he treated who had to be flown by helicopter for an emergency liver transplant due to a case of Hepatitis B, a disease easily prevented by a vaccine. Cassidy said if someone dies because she was “not vaccinated because of policies or attitudes you bring to the department,” the “greatest tragedy will be her death.”
An “associated tragedy,” Cassidy continued, is that it “will cast a shadow over President Trump’s legacy, which I want to be the absolute best legacy it can be. So that’s my dilemma, man, and you may be hearing from me over the weekend.”
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