About Those Bush-Dukakis Comparisons …

It's safe to say 2020 is not 1988, for starters.

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In July 1988, Democratic presidential nominee Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 17-point lead against Vice President George H.W. Bush in a Gallup poll. But Bush went on to crush Dukakis, taking 40 states and winning by 7 percentage points. He did so by running an aggressive—critics would say demagogic—scorched-earth campaign against the then-Massachusetts governor.

It’s been fun to watch Republicans and Democrats alike invoke the Bush-Dukakis race this summer. It began with Republicans, when Trump’s poll numbers started to sink like a bulldog in a bathtub. Keep hope alive, Team Trump insisted. Bush came back from worse.

Now, with Trump’s slight recovery in recent polls and the start of the GOP convention—which, according to lore, initiated Bush’s ’88 comeback—Democrats have been pointing to the story as a “we can still blow this” cautionary tale. As if the party of Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, and Al Gore needed a 32-year-old history lesson on that score.

Over the weekend, Adam Nagourney of the New York Times offered a little for both sides with a long recap of that race, headlined: “A Glimmer of Hope for Trump? How Bush Mounted a Comeback in 1988.”

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  1. Avatar photo
    CynthiaW

    I think that writers' and campaign staff's discussing the 1988 election as if it's relevant today is a sign of the media echo chamber they have created for themselves. Out in the real world, this kind of thing doesn't cross people's minds.

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  2. Kaybmorrow

    Angie, thanks, I have been disappointed with the Dispatch organization. Just paid to get Jonah, now not even that!

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  3. CatoTheElder


    CatoTheCrankyElderjust now
    I must disagree with Jonah once more. But before I get to my disagreement, let me first say that I agree, by and large, with his abbreviated-Cliff’s Note-version of the history of the 1988 election. I agree at least equally strongly that Trump is no GHW Bush. The latter was a good man, a great American, and a good president. Trump is an American, a male of the species, comes from a wealthy family, and...I think the similarities end about there, actually.

    I do disagree with Jonah’s statement, though, that “the only thing useful in the Biden-Dukakis comparison is to consider how much things have changed since 1988.” For a political advisor/strategist, there’s another, obvious utility in the Biden-Dukakis reminder that polls in the summer can be dramatically different than what the polls in November produce. It behooves the Biden campaign not to get to comfortable with what may seem to be a shoo-in election for their man from the Blue Hen State. They should be especially uncomfortable in seeing that the Bush campaign swung below the belt (according to popular lore, anyway) in a seemingly non-Bush sort of way, and won, while the Biden campaign faces an unpredictable halcyon of dirty-play-politics from a man who has been willing to get his passport stamped in Moscow to get ammunition for the battle.

    Say what one wants about Trump, it doesn’t appear he’s going to go down without a fight, and he seems to have made darn sure that there’s no one in his corner who’ll throw in a white towel without his say-so. According to the bookies—anyone else got a better recommendation for something better than tea leaves?—Trump still has about a 1-in-4 or so chance at victory. For Trump, who doesn’t know how to play from ahead anyway, this means he can take the gloves off and be full-on, 24/7 Donald J. Trump, super-stable genius and con artist.

    Trump’s like one of those monsters in the movies that just won’t die. Don’t turn your back on him until the corpse is cold and buried, or you’ll find a shovel between your shoulder blades.

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    Dave

    An interesting side item (at least to me) not mentioned: that 1988 election is the one used by Richard Ben Cramer's great book What It Takes to study the race for the presidency through profiling the candidates he felt had a real opportunity to win.

    Biden was one such person, until his campaign imploded with gaffes and outright plagiarism. That he's got the nomination 32 years (!) later suggests that his political survival skills should not be underestimated. But the same foibles and flaws that derailed him in 1988 still exist today.

    If you haven't read the book, it is definitely worth checking out (even literally -- I'm sure they have a copy at your local library, musty-smelling and covered in dust most likely).

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      George.Skinner

      Megan McArdle's book "The Up Side of Down" makes an important point about failure: you need to learn why you failed and do something to correct it next time. I guess the big question is whether Joe Biden of 2020 has learned from Joe Biden of 1988. And did he learn the right lessons?

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        Dave

        My guess is “no”.

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    Ray Salemi

    Thank you! Someone finally had to end the madness.

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    Butch Earl

    It's amazing how the world has changed since then. The Dukakis' Democratic Party was struggling with their candidate's reluctance to use the term "liberal" in the era of Reagan. Today, their candidate's message is, "Please, call me liberal or progressive, not socialist."
    Nobody's perfect, including the Bushs but, another thing Bush 41 had going for him was grace under fire. At his funeral, there was a lot of mention of George Bush the naval aviator, family patriarch, and 41st President. Not much was mentioned about him quite possibly the best Vice President in history. He was certainly the best in my lifetime. I'll never forget the day President Reagan was shot. If you were not around during the Cold War, you probably have no conception of what life was like when even the rumor of a President's possible demise could move that DefCon light one color closer to nuclear war. I'm not ashamed to admit that when I heard the news of Reagan's wounding, I was quite literally shaking. You cannot imagine how relieved I and my family were at the sight of George Bush stepping off that helicopter.
    In 1988, the GOP thought a candidate with a solid resume' was a good idea. I still do. Clearly, Trump's GOP does not.

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      George.Skinner

      I always chafed at the line the Hillary Clinton was the "most qualified presidential candidate in history." It was obviously George H.W. Bush - congressman, director of the CIA, ambassador to the UN, a substantial vice-president for 8 years.

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      1. Kaybmorrow

        And a very decent good man who I first knew in Houston in the 60s.

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  7. Kaybmorrow

    Why isn't this emailed to subscribers?

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      CynthiaW

      I think this is Jonah's syndicated column rather than his Wednesday "not the G-File but it really is a G-File."

      I'm getting very agitated without my supply of Goldberg content. If I have to buy another book, that will be the last straw.

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      Angie

      It should be if you have it checked...but, I have erratic outcomes with it too, some never show up. some are in spam...I wrote to the supposed help email and they never answered

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  8. Kaybmorrow

    Check your bank account, stock accounts and no new wars. See WSJ 8/25/2020 ,Gerad Baker

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  9. Raincheck

    The Democrats used to use dishonest hyperbole to paint Republicans as shallow, poorly informed, bigoted, hateful and corrupt. Now, conveniently, they have Trump to run against, and all their old lies are now truths.

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    1. Scroop Moth

      All their old warnings are now validated. But the Democrats weren't seers. Even GHWBush called Reaganomics voodoo.

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      George.Skinner

      I agree that previous Republican presidents and candidates have been unfairly maligned. The problem is that Trump is finally the candidate who embodies all of those accusations, and the Republicans seem firmly locked in support of him. If you were trying to validate your opponent's accusations, this is how you'd do it.

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      Adam

      Makes you wonder why so many people who are against cancel culture think re-electing *Donald Trump* would somehow improve things.

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        rlritt

        I know. I've never seen someone so thin skinned and ready to insult and ridicule people he doesn't like.

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    Bill Nelson

    Trump and Churchill have a lot of similarities: both had mothers, both went to school, both wrote books, both have been in New York. Amazing.

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      Michael Garrett

      Churchill's mother was American. Trump's mother was British.
      Trump does not drink beverage alcohol. Churchill did.

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        CynthiaW

        Are you suggesting Trump drinks industrial alcohol? That's not very nice.

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      Mike B

      Reminds me of an elephant joke (remember those?) - What's the similarity between a plum and an elephant? They're both purple - except for the elephant.

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      Ray Salemi

      With the two of them it's breathe, breathe, breathe all day long.

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      Adam

      BTW strongly tempted to Godwin's Law this - after all HITLER WAS ALL THOSE THIGNS TOO

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        Adam

        (typo left in intentionally)

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      Adam

      They're both men, they each have an r in their last name. The similarities are uncanny.

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        Mudskipper

        It is worse than that: they each have a u in their last name as well! (And Bush and Dukakis both have u's!!)

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