Conscription Fears Spark a Russian Exodus

Thousands of men fleeing the country undermine Vladimir Putin’s mobilization efforts.

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ISTANBUL—Vlad left Russia shortly after his home country invaded Ukraine in February, but he reluctantly returned in August to put his affairs in order. Last week President Vladimir Putin threatened nuclear escalation and announced a partial mobilization, and the 27-year-old knew it was time to flee to Turkey again.  

The conscription could press hundreds of thousands of Russians into the war to help replenish the military’s depleted ranks. Ukrainian forces have already killed or wounded some 80,000 Russian soldiers, according to a U.S. estimate. Vlad, who requested The Dispatch not publish his surname so he could speak freely, wasn’t interested in joining that long list of casualties. 

Hundreds of thousands of other Russian nationals seem to feel the same way. Last week evacuees waited for hours at border crossings—on mopeds, bicycles, scooters, in cars, and on foot—in last-ditch efforts to reach border countries permitting their passage. Finland, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Georgia have collectively accepted nearly a quarter-million Russian citizens in recent days. 

Others bought up the handful of flights destined for countries still accepting Russian aircraft, including Serbia, Armenia, and Turkey. “RUBLES ACCEPTED HERE” banners flashed across exchange offices in Istanbul International Airport last week. Some 3 million Russians traveled to Turkey last month alone, official data showed, a 23 percent year-over-year increase.

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  1. Avatar photo
    d.a. douglas

    What also won’t be great for their economy is drafting many working age men to die in this stupid war.

    There already is a brain drain of many who left the country.

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  2. Kgfroehle

    I'd suggest (re)reading Nick Catoggio's Gimme Shelter for a lucid treatment of Russian immigration. He covers it all very well. For a mere blogger, I mean.

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  3. Tom Doniphon

    How to handle the refugees is a sticky question.

    On the one hand, anything to undermine Putin's potential conscript pool is welcome. The brain drain has been mentioned, and that too is valuable.

    However, there are potential problems. In the first place, a bunch of ethnic Russians moving to (primarily) Russia's immediate neighbors increases the Russian ethnic population of those countries, and being a small country (or even not so small, as Ukraine has found out) on Russia's borders with a Russian minority is itself a risky situation.

    And more deeply and broadly, are we to now consider conscription grounds for an asylum claim? Is conscription itself unlawful political oppression, entitling the potential conscripts to asylum? If so, any country on the planet could simply pass a universal conscription law, which would, by that logic, entitle their entire population to asylum in whatever country they choose - by law, the first country they enter - and obliges that country to permit them to apply for asylum.

    So do we really believe if 20 million Russians board planes and ships and head straight to the US, we have a duty to take 20 million in from a single country? What about Norway, Finland, Poland, Georgia, and the Baltics? What about Mongolia, a liberal democracy of only 3.3 million people, and unhappily landlocked entirely between the world's two most powerful totalitarian states, Russia and China? Estonia has only about 1.3 million people - if 1 million Russians make their way to Estonia and request asylum, is Estonia obliged to let them enter and send 1 million applicants through an asylum hearing, and apparently must grant asylum on grounds that the threatened conscription is political oppression justifying asylum?

    This is a serious matter; declaring conscription grounds for asylum could radically change the game and require any and all liberal democracies to simply open their doors to effectively unlimited immigration from any country ruthless enough to pass conscription laws specifically to drive unwanted citizens out of the country. It would in fact incentivize such a move.

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  4. Avatar photo
    Clayton

    Cool piece!

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  5. Avatar photo
    CynthiaW

    It sure is easy to cross national borders in some parts of the world and then just hang around. I feel like if I wanted to go to Mexico and make myself at home, somebody would say something.

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    1. Kgfroehle

      Banana Republics by Jimmy Buffett.

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      1. Avatar photo
        CynthiaW

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJxXu8MdL-A

        Great song, although a friend of his named Steve Goodman wrote that song.

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    2. Michael.Terrien

      If you have a passport, you can go make yourself at home in Mexico for 180 days without even breaking Mexican law. Not really sure how long it would take for somebody to say something if you overstayed that. But assuming you aren't making trouble, I'm not sure why we'd expect their immigration authorities to be any more competent than ours are.

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    Christopherfield07

    Excellent reporting here - actually getting quotes from those directly involved is exactly what I was looking for.

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  7. Mathew A

    "fewer fighting-age men available to fuel the war effort, the better"

    Agreed. Not to mention the brain drain that is occurring as people flee Russia

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  8. Avatar photo
    Rjosephpaquette

    People are not stupid. Russians understand they are in an unjust war—and losing.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Pat Riot

      They aren't stupid, but with total control of the media in that country millions believe whatever they see on TV--especially early on. Eventually the entire populace of the old Soviet Union understood what was happening to them, but the regime controlled information for many years. Of course that was before the internet and ubiquitous mobile phones so clearly things would move a lot faster now.

      All that said, the people who *definitely* know what is what are those in the business of *creating* that propaganda, and *they* are the danger to Putin (and Putin knows this and we should all be careful with predicting a Hollywood ending in a country with a history of sending tens of millions to their deaths).

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      1. Avatar photo
        Rjosephpaquette

        I honestly read your comment four times. Can’t tell if you agree or disagree with me.

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        1. Avatar photo
          Pat Riot

          LOL, I guess it's because I agree with your sentiment but I'm adding some of my own views of the facts to the situation?

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    2. Terry Gill

      Sorry. People are very very stupid. We've seen it here with total devotion to news sources that spread lies and the reflexive denial of facts and justification of outrages. Outside Moscow, Russia is packed with undereducated alcoholics who long for the "good old days" of Stalin and emperors. They stick to state run TV and swollow whole Putin's lies indiscriminately.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Rjosephpaquette

        Respectfully disagree. The exodus supports my point. I also saw a YouTube video of a senior high school class the teacher was espousing the Russian state lies—and they ALL were laughing and making fun of him.

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        1. Terry Gill

          What city?

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  9. Avatar photo
    Julie from Texas

    "Finland, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Georgia have collectively accepted nearly a quarter-million Russian citizens in recent days." That's a huge number, and more are leaving? I'm glad to see the structure supporting Putin is wobbling. I really hope there's a tipping point where he falls off, and we're done with him. Fingers crossed and all!

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  10. Dennis Trask

    Wow, am wondering if this will accelerate much like the fall of the Berlin Wall.

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