Is Saudi-Israeli Peace Done For?

Hamas used violence to veto normalization talks. It’s not a winning tactic.

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Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia takes his seat ahead of a working lunch at the G20 Summit on November 15, 2022 in Nusa Dua, Indonesia. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images,)

TEL AVIV, Israel—An unprecedented attack by Hamas and allied Palestinian groups has left some 1,300 Israelis dead, most of them civilians, while an estimated 130 others remain in terrorist captivity. More than 950 Palestinians are also reported to have been killed as Israel mounts its defense, and a looming ground operation in Gaza threatens to multiply the human toll for both sides.

In addition to drawing its enemy into a costly and unwanted war, Hamas’ attack appears to have achieved another of its key objectives: derailing U.S.-brokered peace talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia. A Saudi Foreign Ministry statement following the terrorist onslaught blamed “the continued occupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, and the repetition of systematic provocations against its sanctities.” Other sources close to Riyadh confirmed to the New York Times that the negotiations were “on hold” in light of the conflict. 

But both Israel and Saudi Arabia’s long-term motivations for achieving peace remain, and neither country has fully relinquished its commitment to the cause even as tensions in the region flare. So while Hamas may have disrupted Israel’s attempts at fence-mending with the broader Muslim world in the immediate term, it likely also solidified the Palestinians’ exclusion from any future deal to the great long-term detriment of the very people it purports to represent.

The surprise assault from Gaza last weekend began as Saudi Arabia and Israel appeared to be on the precipice of hallmark agreement. “Everyday we get closer,” Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the country’s de facto sovereign, said of the deal in an interview with Fox News last month. But instead of handing President Joe Biden his crowning foreign policy achievement ahead of the 2024 election, the Middle East erupted into war. 

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  1. Kevin M

    One question that needs to be answered is "what happens to Gaza after?" The Israelis don't want it, but don't want Hamas or its ilk to return. Egypt isn't likely to want it, and in any event is too poor to do anything constructive.

    Perhaps the Saudis can take over and use their wealth to build something not based on hatred and resentment. It might be part of any deal with the Israelis, and serve the Palestinians as well.

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    1. Pohl

      Gaza will likely be part of a Palestinian state with a land corridor to the West Bank. Inelegant but no more funky than Israel’s Green Line. It would be nice, perhaps, if it became a semiautonomous state under Egypt. As you say, though, that’s unlikely.

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    2. Placid Paddler

      The Palestinians need to build their own country. Any help from the Saudi’s that can be milked for cash will only further delay the Palestinians from becoming an honorable and self sufficient people.

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      1. Kevin M

        Because they've had all the advantages so far and to help would just be a moral hazard?

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        1. Placid Paddler

          Please read again. You can’t give them help that just gets turned into a source of cash for Hamas or other corrupt actors. (Beyond the minimal amount that mostly cannot be avoided).

          That just gives power to the takers. They need the power in Gaza going to the builders and other positive influences.

          The Palestinians are no different than anyone else in this regard.

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    3. Jack H Wolf

      It is an interesting thought. Egypt would be a more likely candidate over Saudi Arabia, sharing a border. I cant see the Saudis taking over, or Israel allowing it, they dont even have diplomatic relations yet and they are a lot more supportive of religious fundamentalists than Egypt.
      Most likely control will go to Israel as every war has increased Israeli expansion of territory, and I dont say this negatively, but because it is apparent that Gaza left to its own devices will repeat the process.
      I am sure many Gazans would leave if they could given that it is one of the most densely populated entities on earth- more than Hong Kong, and does not have the capability of supporting this population. The best Israel could hope for is that Arab countries accept refugees and then to arrest or deport everybody who works for Hamas and either directly ruling or getting a relatively more benign leadership like Fatah.

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      1. Kevin M

        Unless Gaza becomes part of Israel, with all the demographic problems that brings, or becomes a successful interface between Arabs and Jews, controlled by someone other than the massively-corrupt and dictatorial PLO, then it will remain a cesspool of people with nothing left to lose.

        I don't see Gaza being depopulated of Palestinians, as that would leave Israel a total pariah, with even America backing away. The only alternative is to make it work as a country, or as part of other country that works. That's not Egypt.

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  2. Carole St Laurent-Groves

    Nice article. Be safe, Charlotte.

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    Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

    Iran is the bad actor consistent throughout all this. Like Henry Kissinger, I was rooting for both Iran and Iraq to lose their war against each other.

    Until Iran is no longer a theocracy governed by a madman, the middle east will know no peace. We can wait for the geezer to die, but younger version of him likely takes over. The issue is simple--those leading this aren't suffering the pain of their decisions. We need to squeeze Iran even further, so their people eventually rebel against the madman.

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  4. Philip.R.M.Hunt

    I was wondering what the impact of the Hamas attack on the Saudi-Israeli deal was. Good to hear that it is not quite dead yet. Thanks for covering this Charlotte - I have not seen anyone else report on this.

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  5. Sawinston

    The long struggle between Jew/Palestinian seems to only become more widespread and intense. And seems likely to exist for several more generations. Pray of peace but expect war.

    Thanks for the great reporting. Real information regarding international relations the more intense real-politics behind the scene is hard to come by.

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    George.Skinner

    It's interesting to see reports that Iran may not have been aware of the planning for the Hamas attacks. Hamas has unquestionably been supplied by Iran, but Iran may not appreciate being implicated in the planning and execution. This could lead to another Palestinian foreign policy coup - a move that completes the alienation of the Gulf States and pushes them into an anti-Iran alliance with Israel, while simultaneously alienating their major sponsor by fomenting an immensely unfavorable tilt in the regional balance of power. The Palestinian leadership never learns - they backed Iraq in 1990 because they were titillated by Saddam's strongman pose, only to alienate the Gulf states who saw Saddam's aggression as an existential threat. Now they're again failing to read the geopolitics with respect to Iran.

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      Retired Prosecutor

      Those reports can well be true and yet would likely be meaningless. Not every government official in Japan knew of the Pearl Harbor attack, nor everyone in Germany about the 1939 invasion of Poland.

      Stories in the Wall Street Journal the past few days discuss a series of pre-planning IRGC meetings in Beirut with Hamas, a command-control relationship, and that the IRGC gave the "go-ahead" signal for the attack. If there is further proof of this, the Israelis and this country will face a very difficult situation. But one thing is certain, the Obama / Biden attempts to negotiate with the mullahs in Iran lies in tatters.

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        George.Skinner

        True, but I do like the thought of a rogue state having one of its own proxies go rogue in turn and inflict serious blowback. It's also completely in character with the Daffy Duck nature of the Palestinian leadership to continually engage in schemes that tend to undermine their own interests.

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    Bill B

    It does seem that Palestinians and their proxies are intent on torpedoing their own cause. After the the attack of the last few days I doubt too many folks are going to be manipulated by media accounts of suffering Palestinians into buying into a two-state solution. Who would want to live next to a state that harbors such monsters?

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  8. Pumpkin Princess

    Hamas did exactly what they said they would do. The PLO is more subtle. For an English speaking audience it nominally supports a 2 state solution, but for local consumption in Arabic it is virtually indistinguishable from Hamas. A genuine peace deal requires 2 honest brokers

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    Njh2005

    There is little reason to believe there is any significant support for peace in the Palestinian community. It is about time we accept the truth that Palestinian leaders, whether Fatah or Hamas, speak of a state from the river to the sea because that is actually their goal and they are reflecting the desire of the broader community. The dispute between Fatah and Hamas is about who will rule such a state and in what fashion. It is not about whether Israel should be exist.
    The only way forward is for the major Arab powers to acknowledge a two state solution is not possible in the foreseeable future and if the Arabs in the Wast Bank and Gaza are to have any form of political autonomy it will have to be under an existing nation’s sovereignty and the only realistic options are Israel, Jordan, and Egypt. As of today, no Arab leader is ready to accept this reality but we in the west must.

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  10. Lee2253

    What would they do if they conquered Israel ? Before long it would be tents and broken down factories and poor people wandering around trying to blame somebody for everything.

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