Is the GOP Just Waiting for a Fresh Start?

Whatever happens in Manhattan, weightier indictments might prompt Republicans to reject Donald Trump.

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Former President Donald Trump appears at the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York on April 4, 2023.(Photo by Andrew Kelly/AFP/Getty Images.)

Now is a time of woe, not just for Never Trump conservatives, but also for the much larger group of Republicans who made peace with Trump once but dread having to do it again.

In fact, just going by my unscientific survey, the melancholy is worse for those Republicans who may have agreed with the Never Trump crowd in principle (and in private), but for pragmatic and professional reasons found it necessary to spend years eating the steaming bowl of unpalatable fare that fate had put in front of them.

But after disappointing Republican performances in 2018, 2020 and 2022, almost entirely because of Trump’s influence, a lot of these former accommodationists and transactionists have concluded—correctly—that Trump’s an albatross for the GOP.

For all the talk about how this indictment helps Trump solidify Republican support, it hurts his—and the party’s—prospects in 2024. People who voted against Trump in 2020—and against his most sycophantic disciples in 2022—are unlikely to suddenly change their minds about him because he got indicted for a scheme to pay hush money to an adult film actress. And contrary to the alternate reality peddled by Trump and his biggest fans that he is the voice of the American majority, more Americans dislike him than like him.

And, again, contrary to the echo-chamber mythmaking of Trump’s P.R. team, reaction to the New York indictment confirms it hurts him. A new CNN poll finds that 1 in 5 Republicans approve of the indictment and 1 in 4 conservatives do. Majorities of independents (62 percent) and Democrats (94 percetn) approve. Overall, 6 in 10 Americans support the indictment.

Meanwhile, Republican voters are rallying around Trump. In other words, this indictment is good for Trump in the hothouse of Republican primary politics 10 months before the Iowa caucus, but affirmatively bad for a party that wants to win general elections.

At least Never Trumpers get the consolation prize of saying “I told you so.” The Never Again camp, however, is probably despondent at the prospect of having to get out the spoon for another helping—and losing again.

The despair is understandable but possibly premature.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s indictment may be the first indictment of a former president, but it is unlikely to be the last. Georgia is likely to indict Trump for his effort to overturn the 2020 election, and most legal observers believe that Special Counsel Jack Smith will likely indict Trump on federal charges related to his actions on January 6, 2021, or his absconding with classified materials—or both.

Predicting what the future will look like is always a mistake. After months of revelations and Trump outbursts, it’s not inconceivable that the MAGA forces will disperse from exhaustion.

But one should not bet the mortgage on a sudden outbreak of intestinal fortitude, strategic resolve, or conservative principle among GOP leaders when it comes to Trump. At least for some Republicans, supporting Trump on the New York indictment might be the best way politically to prepare for more serious indictments if they happen. (As a critic of Bragg’s decision, I think opposing the indictment is a defensible position on the merits.)

Such positioning now could help inoculate against charges of reflexive Trump-hatred should weightier indictments drop. Right now, even Mike Pence and Ron DeSantis feel the need to defend Trump. But given that they want to run for the presidency, they’re simply waiting for the opportunity to argue the GOP needs a fresh start.

It’s worth recalling that despite the immediate frenzy of Republican support for Trump after the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago last August, Trump’s poll numbers did not improve much, even among Republicans. Indeed, Trump’s unfavorability numbers are remarkably high and stable.

As the New York drama unfolds, and the unseemly facts about porn star payoffs and Trumpian drama once again fill Americans’ headspace, new indictments may seem less like fresh outrages from the “deep state” and more like last straws and justifications for pushing away the bowl.

Interestingly, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson seized this moment to move up his formal announcement that he will be challenging Trump for the nomination and that Trump should drop out of the race because of all of his baggage.

Perhaps even more revealing, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, among the most pliant of Trump enablers, recently suggested the front-runner now—i.e. Trump—may not be the eventual nominee. The 2024 race needs to be a referendum on Biden, he explained, and therefore the GOP needs a candidate who can make that case. “It’s about addition, not subtraction,” he told podcaster Dave Rubin.

That’s not exactly a brave repudiation of Trump, but it is a baby step in the right direction.

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  1. Avatar photo
    DougAz

    https://apnews.com/article/oklahoma-tennessee-florida-partisanship-polarization

    The Depraved Conservative Republicans power grab continues. When will the lesson he learned?

    As in Wisconsin, decent people will oust the Powerista...the Conserveritata.

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    Earl King

    I sound like a broken record but it is true that any serious GOP politician has to ask themselves. Is Trump adding to his numbers or static or losing. Cleary he is not more popular....people generally don’t like bitter angry people. Yeah, ok they like a fighter, Trump problem is isn’t fighting anything other than just his ego....It will be a mistake that the GOP electorate will go down the Trump path for the sole reason they mistook Trump fighting for them rather than just for himself.....It is a bit cult like. Now is the Winter of our discontent.....Yeah I know, but it felt winter like today.

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    BrettH

    Enjoyed the read, thanks Jonah.

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  4. Joe1776

    The Georgia case and January 6 "coup attempt" cases are even worse legally and politically. In America it is not a crime to give political speeches even if what they say is false. And nothing he or his team said to Raffensperger is even close to criminal. He did not tell Raffensperger to get 11,800 votes. Rather he was telling Raffensperger he (Trump and his investigators) already have evidence that way more than that many were fraudulant. If you haven't read the transcript I recommend it because it is short and often misconstrued by the media. Trump may be wrong about what he is claiming in that call but there is nothing close to criminal.

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/03/politics/trump-brad-raffensperger-phone-call-transcript/index.html

    The classified documents case is likely at least as good as this Manhattan case legally. But if Joe Biden is not also indicted, lots of people will be very angry. If Joe Biden were also indicted I think it would be ok, but we all know they are not going to indict a democrat. The wheels of justice at the current DOJ does not move in that direction.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Retired Prosecutor

      The classified documents case would not be about mishandling secret documents- which regrettably is apparently customary among our upper political class - but about Trump’s obstruction of judicially authorized efforts to retrieve them.

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      Mudskipper

      There is NO evidence that Joe Biden knowingly withheld documents and lied about that fact. There IS evidence that Trump did exactly that. It is looking like he lied to his attorneys, telling them that he did not have documents that he indeed knew he had.

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    3. Avatar photo
      DougAz

      Doesn't Braggs 34 felony counts in the Trump indictment mean anything to you?

      What criminal statue do you allege⁰ President Biden to have broken?

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      1. Avatar photo
        Retired Prosecutor

        Bragg’s case is a bad joke. But the apparent obstruction of justice case the special prosecutor is building, regarding Trump’s apparent refusal to comply with attempts to retrieve classified documents in his possession, looks like a very good case to me.

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        1. Avatar photo
          DougAz

          Quite a few former and current federal prosecutors disagree with you about Braggs case. Including here, our MsMsM.

          NYC handles numerous Financial crimes, I'm certain vastly more than other locations. Bragg alone has 29 Financial fraud indictments with 151 counts. Absolutely nothing unusual about the Trump indictment. Normal course of business. The Federal aspect is probably a red herring. There are many New York banking, tax and campaign laws. Of which Trump's CFO Allen Weisselberg was found guilty.

          I appreciate 2 things about your commentary. First I agree the special prosecutor case has more in plain sight heft.

          I also appreciate the lack of demeaning tone.

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    4. Hikingguy

      And yet he sent his deranged fans to assault the Capitol. Funny how you forget that part. Keep making excuses for this walking orange dirt bag, though, if it makes you feel better.

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  5. James Morphew

    I suggest that the #NeverTrump-ers don't convince anyone with their repeated "I told you so" gloating. Popular in some circles (such as The Dispatch?), but not particularly inclusive nor inviting.

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  6. Avatar photo
    Ralph S

    Isn't it clear by now that Trump is not competent to administer his household let alone this country? The nonsense he is spouting about defunding the FBI and the DOJ without a plan for the critical services provided by those organizations underscore that these are the rantings of a madman. His entire victimization charade is intolerable. He has so outdone the woke folk in that regard. I bought that the democrats were out to get him when he was in office (and they still are). But Trump is more than capable of hanging himself than any democrat plat to destroy him. This is the numbskull that wanted to delete or change parts of the constitution for his own particular predicament. He doesn't seem to have respect for the executive office or the concept of public service. Shades of Alice in Wonderland. He is in a fantasy world where he only sees himself as being cheered. There is not a serious thought in his head regarding policy. But he is an ace when it comes to name calling.

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  7. MB

    Agree as well. Please console your Commentary Podcast friends who appear very despondent....even more than their usual crushing morosity.

    Seems to me like the primaries are pretty far away and alot of shoes are going to drop between now and then.

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    1. Krbrady1919

      I appreciate the phrase "crushing morosity," because I see it on all sides these days. In many ways, we have it better than we've ever had as a country and as a species, and yet many of us are perpetually miserable (and find ways to make money on that misery..)

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      1. Lermanews

        “Crushing Morosity” don’t you get it that’s their bit.. and it’s usually pretty compelling especially these days

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  8. David Schmidt

    Agree with Jonah's assessment. I would also add the old tired (but sometimes helpful) cliché: Follow the money. What I mean is it would be very helpful to follow how much money each of the declared Republican candidates start to amass. To win a nomination and general election, it will take hundreds of millions of dollars.

    I read today that Nikki Haley already has 11 million dollars. Not bad. Surprising to me, actually. Let's see what the others can haul in as well. Because the fact is there will be no defeating Trump unless Republican donors stop giving the Trump and start giving to someone that can actually win an election.

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  9. Johnnyberge

    I hope you are right, but we were all eyewitnesses to what happened on Jan. 6, and have also since learned that it was not some spontaneous event, but instead was planned well in advance. So if that was not enough to dump Trump, I'm not sure if anything other than seeing him behind bars will make a difference to his base or GOP pols. Doubling down seems to be the only acceptable response.

    Moderates and swing voters may be influenced by the current and possible future indictments, but GOP politicians are taking their marching orders from the MAGA base and right wing media, so it seems they are now tethered to Trump for better or worse (while secretly rooting for Smith and Willis).

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    1. Avatar photo
      BloggerBarbie

      Do you really think seeing him behind bars will make a difference to his base? You're more optimistic than I am. They will be screaming for him to govern from Attica. (Though as a native of Wyoming County, I must say that would bring in some much needed tourism money... )

      Seriously, ever since 2016, the one thing I've agreed with Trump on is that he could shoot a guy on 5th Avenue without losing support. The difference being that he's triumphal about it and I consider it a major tragedy.

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      1. Johnnyberge

        Agree. One of Trump's greatest talents is spotting the weakness and moral failings in people and manipulating them accordingly. Of course it takes two to Tango.

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          DougAz

          The 2nd are the weak and motally failing Trump voters naturally. Well then his sycophants in Congress and state government.

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  10. John Mack mack

    I doubt if Trump will be tried in Georgia. Georgia has a Republican governor who no doubt has no great desire to take the stand and implicate Trump. If Trump is indicted there, the legislature will repeal or modify the laws under which he is indicted.

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    1. Johnnyberge

      There is already legislation in the works in GA to give the Legislature the power to remove DA's that they deem unfit. They might as well call it the Trump Protection Act.

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