North Carolina’s Gritty Gubernatorial Campaign

The state’s Republicans hold most political power, but the 2024 campaign for governor will be competitive.

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North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson speaks during a Save America rally for former President Donald Trump in 2022. (Photo by Allison Joyce/Getty Images)

Dale Folwell wants to become the CEO of the largest business in the state of North Carolina. At least that’s how he describes his campaign for governor.

A Quaker and accountant first elected to the North Carolina House of Representatives in 2004 and now in his second term as state treasurer, Folwell received more statewide votes in 2020 than Donald Trump, Sen. Thom Tillis, and state Attorney General Josh Stein, now the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor. 

But he’ll face stiff primary competition from Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, a culture warrior and Donald Trump ally with a history of bankruptcies, tax troubles, and controversial comments.

Robinson formally announced his campaign on Saturday at a rally at Ace Speedway in Alamance County—a nod to his Greensboro roots and a throwback to the anti-lockdown politics of yesteryear (Gov. Roy Cooper ordered the speedway closed during pandemic lockdowns in 2020 after large events there). Virtually unknown until his viral comments about gun rights at a Greensboro City Council meeting propelled him to Fox News fame and a successful 2020 run for lieutenant governor, Robinson is beloved by the Trump base. He has a commanding lead in early primary polling, endorsements from prominent republicans such as Sen. Ted Budd and Rep. Dan Bishop, and a robust small-dollar fundraising operation.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Scarlette Tarte

    I don't think North Carolina has gotten "redder". What it has gotten is terribly gerrymandered. Just like other Republican led states, the repubs have done their best to gain a stranglehold on state government via antidemocratic means. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/11/republicans-gerrymandering-north-carolina-supreme-court/620625/

    And that Robinson is bad, bad news.

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    1. Norcal

      You don't think Democrats have done their best in other states to gain strangleholds via gerrymandering?
      🙄

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      1. Kittyecws

        Well, gerrymandering won’t help in statewide elections. That’s why we have Democrats in the Governor’s and Attorney General’s office I’m hoping that will e the outcome in the next election. Robinson is definitely bad news. His rhetoric. Is worse than Trump’s.

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      2. Avatar photo
        Wj

        So long as gerrymandering is lawful nationally, both parties will be strongly incentivized to do it, even if party policy opposes it, since it can change the balance of the national house.

        Democrats are feeling the pain a bit here since some blue states have managed to move to independent commissions (like CA and CO). They might actually have a house majority today if several of those states had aggressive partisan gerrymandered districts in their favor. I don't expect any more states to move away from gerrymandering in this environment, unless it's outlawed nationally for everyone.

        That said, Democrats would be the winners and Republicans would be losers if national law rid the country of partisan gerrymandering, and so there are some strong incentives for D's to end it once and for all.

        R's, on the other hand, are facing major demographic collapse of their base (boomers) and seem to have given up on expanding their coalition, and are therefore determined to lean into every anti-majoritarian/anti-democratic aspect of our political system so they can hold power, even as a minority party. Extreme gerrymandering is a key pillar of that strategy.

        Moral of the story: send D's to Washington if you want gerrymandering to go away.

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      3. Avatar photo
        Scarlette Tarte

        Democrats actually just got into Gerry mandering the way Repubs do it, and it has ticked off the GOP.

        Sure, both sides gerrymander. But in the last 15 -20 years, Repubs have basically decided that anyone to the left of someone like Marjorie Taylor Green should not have representation. Aside from court ordered districts, they would get rid of every Democrat if they could.

        But just last year, Dems decided to fight fire with fire. And Repubs can't stand it. https://newrepublic.com/article/165314/democrats-redistricting-blue-state-gerrymandering

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        1. Avatar photo
          Pat @ Tavi Hall

          Naw, back under the Democrats in the late 80s and early 90s, here in NC there was the famous snake district wending it's way from Raleigh to Charlotte along I85.

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        2. Avatar photo
          Party-san

          The Democrats have successfully gerrymandered a couple of states (and most notably had their attempt shot down in New York) but the bias is strongly towards the Republicans and has been since 1966. The red wave of 2010, however, shifted things far more than usual - five times as many Republican legislatures got to draw state maps than did Democrats so the Republicans have an advantage in far more states than Democrats do today.

          Yes, it's legal. But that doesn't make it right or fair (a view shared by a majority of the country, according to many polls). Politics, of course, is about splitting every hair and finding every loophole to gain an advantage - there is no unfair advantage in politics, there's just outsmarting your opponent.

          FiveThirtyEight has a great and detailed breakdown of biases in different sectors of the government: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/advantage-gop/

          They also have a particular look at North Carolina, which is more egregious than almost any other state: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/partisan-gerrymandering-north-carolina/

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          1. Avatar photo
            Sad Trombone

            What you folks attribute to gerrymandering is the result of Lee Atwater's jui jitsu of the Congressional Black Caucus when implementing majority-minority districts to comply with the Voting Rights Act. Going back to Clinton, Dick Gephardt would have been Speaker of the House for two terms but for this monstrosity.
            Also I would deny the argument that NC is not getting redder. Like Florida we have substantial immigration of Yankees fleeing the result of Dem rule in their home states; they hate Trump, but like the Thom Tillis country club Republicanism of the super-majority.

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  2. FreddySez

    Hi folks - a "conservatarian" anti-Trumper here, writing to you from central North Carolina, where I've lived for 15 years.

    Robinson is bad news all the way down. He manages somehow to make Trump look statesmanlike by comparison. If he's learned to obey the prompter for a few minutes at a time, don't be fooled.

    In a traditional political environment I would refuse, without acrimony, to vote for either Roy Cooper or Josh Stein. They're Democrats and I'm not, is all.

    But in them, particularly in Cooper, we've seen a record of quiet competence with minimal partisan demagogy or base-baiting. I can point to issues on which I've disagreed with each, but not to any times when either has made an ass of himself.

    Notice how you never heard Cooper's name in the national media during COVID, when it seemed every governor in the country was either a hero or a villain from one day to the next?

    I would vote for Folwell if he got the nomination. I would never vote for Robinson. And if I end up having to pull the lever for Stein, I won't have to hold my nose THAT hard.

    If there will ever again be a GOP I feel like putting my shoulder behind, it will start at this level of government. It's time to Make Crazy Disqualifying Again.

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    1. LD

      I'm also from NC. I agree that Roy Cooper has governed with "quiet competence ". A relief compared to so many governors of other states that seem to put performing before governing. Josh Stein has been a good AG and will govern similarly. Robinson, however, is a terrible politician. At least NC has been able to avoid the high drama so many governors have inflicted on their states. As a outrage performer, Robinson would thrust NC into that category. Can we just have a reasonable governor who governs with the NC citizens in mind instead of his own culture warrior image.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Scarlette Tarte

        If he has done well, why don't you all elect more Democrats? Isn't "competence" what you are looking for? If the Dems are putting competent people into office, why not go with that?

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          Sad Trombone

          Cooper has made his share of missteps too. He scored an own-goal by appointing two radical Black members to a council that sat and turned their back to the flag during the pledge of allegiance.

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            Scarlette Tarte

            Please send a reference to this story. I googled it and could not find anything on it.

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        2. Kittyecws

          Scarlette, we are trying. I’m not even a Democrat. I’m unaffiliated but I have been voting mostly for Democrats except for a few moderate locals I know and trust. Democrats inNorth Carolina have always been moderate. Republicans used to be but now they are just bats-in-the-belfry crazy! Even my Republican relatives agree; however, Robinson is a special case. He’s much worse.

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          1. Avatar photo
            Scarlette Tarte

            I understand. I just want someone to tell me why they are not getting more traction if everyone concedes Cooper is competent.

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        3. LD

          What a strange reply to my statement about my personal beliefs. I don't claim to speak for anyone else in NC and can't tell you why they voted as they did. I was dismayed that my fellow Carolinians gave our supreme court and both houses to Republicans knowing their prior record when they had this power from 2018-2020.

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          1. Avatar photo
            Scarlette Tarte

            Not strange at all. If you "agree that Cooper has governed with competence", why do North Carolinians not elect more Dems? They see the competence...why not expand on that?

            That was my only question. Which you have now answered...you basically are confounded by that as well.

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    2. Avatar photo
      Wj

      Cooper has done well, and has scored real bi-partisan wins that almost make our current R legislature seem like reasonable adults from time to time. I shudder to think about what we have in store with their new super majority though.

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  3. J. Everett Schubert

    "But some Republicans worry that his rhetorical firebombs could be a bridge too far for suburban swing voters next November."

    Narrator: "They were..."

    Good grief. How many times do we have to do this same old song and dance? A cuckoo-for-cocoa-puffs Trumper has no chance in a state like North Carolina, where you have lots of educated suburban voters. Can you imagine the clownish Robinson sitting at the negotiating table with potential large employers interested in relocating to North Carolina? Either he'd be laughed out of the room -- or they'd get up and walk out.

    Nominate a center-right, business friendly Republican with no scandals, and you're golden.

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      Rajeev

      I think Robinson would have a decent chance. He is Lt Governor so not one of those electoral losers that was nominated with no political experience. Hopefully Josh Stein wins he's a lot like Cooper. North Carolina isn't turning blue at the rate Georgia is but has many of the same dynamics where it can elect reasonable people from both sides of the aisle.

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        Pat @ Tavi Hall

        Agreed, we saw Dan Forest lose because he became too wild against Cooper, but it is also is wise to remember previous poorly chosen Democrats in NC, Cal Cunningham and Bev Purdue spring to mind. For that matter Ted Budd might well have had a harder campaign with a stronger opponent. To quote Sarah, "canidates matter."

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    2. FreddySez

      I agree with you except in your dismissal of Robinson's chances. He did win statewide office once before, after all, with a margin that was small, but still greater than Trump's was a the top of the ticket.

      This is a time to be vigilant against complacency. He *does* have a chance, and we can't sleep on it.

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      1. J. Everett Schubert

        Oh I agree. (Not a NC resident though) I'm actually surprised that NC isn't more of a purple or light blue state. Y'all have Charlotte, the Research Triangle with many transplants from blue states, the suburbs of each metro area that are loaded with the quintessential educated, suburban voters. And to top it all off, there's the progressive bastion of Asheville, basically a smaller, high elevation Austin. Are the rural areas so red that they just overpower all of the above?

        Roy Cooper is alright. I'm not a Democrat either, but he is a Democrat whom I can respect. I'm about to the point where I'd rather have a competent, boring, technocratic Democrat who can be reasoned with...as opposed to a frothing-at-the-mouth MAGAphile. Even if I disagree with the former on most policies.

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        1. FreddySez

          I think NC as a whole is very purple right now and getting a little bluer every day, mostly for the reasons you note.

          Rural areas of the state are indeed deep red -- it was far-western NC that gave us two years of Madison Cawthorn. It seems to me that whatever energy propels the remaining "red" presence in the state seems to be coming from the MAGA camp, not from the traditional arm of the GOP. Which means that as Trumpism wanes, so will NC conservatism.

          Until, that is, it's reborn in a post-Trump mold to retake its place as a viable philosophical and electoral choice. I might even rejoin the party if that happens.

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          1. Kittyecws

            That gave us Virginia Foxx too. For one election season we were in a different district but after last redistricting we are back in her district. Groan! That district will always vote Republican no matter how terrible the candidate. The one year reprieve was wonderful!

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  4. Avatar photo
    Wj

    Here's a charming new clip of Robinson saying it's actually black people that owe reparations to white people.

    https://twitter.com/NikkiBarnesFL/status/1650252653107064835

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    1. Kittyecws

      I’m not a fan of reparations,period., but that is totally ridiculous.

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    Jeff Younger

    Of course another Trumper is going to hand an election to the Democrats. It’s what they do. When DJT spoke of growing tired of “so much winning”, he must have been speaking for himself, and it only took one W to satiate his appetite for victory.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Wj

      > Of course another Trumper is going to hand an election to the Democrats

      I'm not so sure, but let's hope so.

      I don't know what a D governor can do while up against a crazy, Trumper R super majority in the legislature or a hyper-partisan R state SC majority, but at least it's something.

      We're looking more like TN by the day, and that's not a good thing.

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