On Abortion, Texas Isn’t a Whole ’Nother Country

It’s the one everybody else lives in, too.

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“Texas: It’s like a whole ’nother country,” or so the state tourism bureau slogan used to insist, but in spite of its yee-haw reputation, Texas is in most ways a whole lot like the rest of the country, including in Texans’ attitudes toward abortion: In recent polls, 54 percent of Texans said they oppose a total ban on the procedure, precisely the same figure found in national polls. 

But something very close to a total ban on abortion in the state is what Texas has—a fact that has some Republicans hearing footsteps ahead of Election Day. 

They probably are overreacting. Even as “Roe the Vote” signs go up in the manicured yards of affluent lefty neighborhoods around the state, Texans continue to tell pollsters that their top issues are border security, immigration, political corruption, and inflation, in that order, with abortion coming in next as the top issue for only 8 percent of voters compared to a combined 30 percent for border security and immigration. (Border security and immigration are, in effect, one issue in Texas as a matter of political reality. Texans who say their top issue is immigration aren’t usually talking about well-heeled Nigerians settling in Harris County.) Abortion is unlikely to a dispositive issue. In any case, the people with the “Roe the Vote” signs and bumper-stickers probably weren’t going to be super enthusiastic about Greg Abbott irrespective of the Dobbs decision or the consequent activation of Texas’ abortion “trigger” law, which prohibits abortion except in the case of a “life-threatening physical condition aggravated by, caused by, or arising from a pregnancy that places [a woman] at risk of death or poses a serious risk of substantial impairment of a major bodily function.”

That being said, Texas Republicans have no reason to be cocky. The Republican share of the presidential vote in Texas has declined from 61 percent in 2004 to barely 52 percent in 2020—of course, Texan George W. Bush might have been expected to put up a big number in 2004, but Mitt Romney in 2012 finished with a convincing 57.2 percent of the vote in 2012, and John McCain won 55.5 percent in 2008. Maybe Donald Trump’s relatively low numbers in Texas in 2016 and 2022—52.2 in 2016, declining slightly to 52.0 in 2020—were about Trump. But they might have been about the Texas electorate. 

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  1. Alan

    How hard is this? What has broad support is something like restrictions beginning at the 15-20 week range where before that time it is easy to access, and after that time the specific situations where it is acceptable (rape, incest, life of mother, terminating ectopic pregnancies etc.) are obvious both to potential patients and doctors, such that no one is worried about charges. These vague laws that seem to be either written by morons or intentionally vague on exceptions are not it. Like seriously, when the Idaho ag says “yes the Idaho law criminalizes the termination of ectopic pregnancies but no Idaho prosecutors will take a case like that so trust us” run like hell

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    Ceich62

    Kevin, do you dictate your article? Sysco is a foodservice company, whereas Cisco is the networking giant.

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    BrettH

    Enjoyed the read, thanks Kevin.

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    TheKingPrawn

    I'd argue that Republicans can't move towards those young urban voters unless those voters move away from their socialist, baby-killing positions.
    Also, I grew up in Midland at the same time you grew up in Lubbock, so howdy, neighbor.

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    Ms. SSM

    I really wish people thought these rape and incest exceptions through to their logical prosecution end. Which is an almost certain acquittal. If the law incentivizes lying, it makes victims that much harder to believe. People will say the woman lied to get an abortion. People will say the woman lied to be able to get an abortion just in case. Rape convictions are already hard to get. They are about to get harder in states with these laws.

    In any case this is an interesting article on the abortion issue. I think the issue becomes more and more salient as more and more people interact in some way with these new laws. They are already unpopular and that is likely to grow. It’s like gay marriage in reverse as a culture issue. But KW is right in that I don’t see it flipping TX this cycle. TX seems on borrowed time though. There are no blue or red states. Just states whose cities out number the red areas and states where the cities don’t. TX is too urban to not see a tilt soon.

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      ARS

      You seem to know quite a bit about this subject so I have a question for you. To me, one indication of the sloppiness of the TX law on abortion is if you don’t have an exception for rape, you at least need it for severely intellectually disabled women. Any impregnating of such women would be nonconsensual as they are mentally incapable of consenting to sex. Are the people in favor of current law actually taking the position they should be forced to have a baby or do you think the life of the mother exception is big enough to employ to allow an abortion by severely intellectually disabled women?

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    Patrick

    It doesn’t change the point you were making, but that Texas Sysco is a food distributor, not California Cisco the tech company.

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    George.Skinner

    I'd guess that the Democratic breakthrough in Texas happens when they start picking candidates who lean towards Democratic positions on culture war issues, but to an extent consistent with the general conservative bent of the state. If the Democratic candidate excites the national Democratic establishment, they're probably the wrong candidate for Texas.
    Texas also seems like another case where there'll be escalating tension as the political power balance and political attitudes of urban and rural voters changes. Rural power has been slipping, although they can still command the agenda because their support is necessary but insufficient for Republicans to win the state. As they continue to lose power and their influence declines, rural voters are going to become more and more strident about obtaining extreme positions. In other jurisdictions, it get to the point where a hard core of extremists with a rural power base can sabotage the party if they drift to far to the center, but insist on positions that are likewise poisonous in a general election.

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  8. Pohl

    Okay article if I were inclined to listen to a strategist’s take from the likes of Rove. For the umptieth time at TD, the lame “compromise” of 15 weeks is trotted out, which will effectively allow most abortions, as people contemplating post-first trimester abortions will simply move up their timetable. It’s less a case of the 99th percentile vs the 96th, than the 99th vs the 10th who think this is progress.
    I’m not saying some states won’t end up with such a sorry limit, but there’s no need to treat it like the “reasonable,” European way or the conventional wisdom. Aside from this quibble, I guess the article has good advice for the Texas GOP, the health of which is pretty far down on my list of cares.

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      Ms. SSM

      The loss of TX would be a big blow to conservative Presidential aspirations. So to that extent I think it would be a big deal to out of state conservatives.

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      1. Pohl

        I’m not arguing that Texans or motivated outsiders do nothing. I’m saying I’m not going to do anything about Texas. Well, I just offered up a prayer, but that’s it.

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  9. Shaybult

    "Republicans in Texas and elsewhere unfortunately seem to have mostly forgotten how to engage in that kind of old-fashioned coalition-building politics."

    Yup - in the case of abortion and a host of other issues. And it's not like the Democrats have been doing any better.

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  10. Jim S

    I admit I get irrationally irked with the recent trend of conservatives invoking European abortion law to support their position.

    So if the issue is guns or healthcare or paid tuition or speech or internet access or consumer policy or environmental policy or paid leave et al and someone more liberal invokes European policy they are immediately shot down from the right with something along the lines of “none of that applies here” or “America is different”.

    But now suddenly the issue is abortion and we should all look to France? Bah! So transparently disingenuous.




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