RFK JR. Could Play Spoiler, but Not for Biden

He’s more popular with right-leaning Americans than with Democrats.

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at a Hispanic Heritage Month event at the Wilshire Ebell Theatre on September 15, 2023, in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is expected to announce next week that he is leaving the Democratic Party and taking his presidential bid elsewhere. 

Where, exactly, remains unclear. But there are hints. As the folks at No Labels can attest, gaining ballot access for a new party is very hard. And at this late date, Kennedy would need help, which the struggling Libertarian Party could provide. 

Kennedy met with the party’s chairwoman over the summer, and his views on vaccines, foreign policy, and allegations of criminal conspiracies inside the federal government line up well with the party’s current direction. And some of Kennedy’s funders occupy that fuzzy space between MAGA and the new-look Libertarian Party.

Kennedy’s longtime work in favor of environmental regulations—work that endeared him to many on the progressive left—or his comments about Jews and COVID might have posed a serious barrier to his nomination by the old, Randian Libertarian Party. But they don’t seem like much of a stumbling block these days. “I’d vote for him in a heartbeat,” the party’s 2012 and 2016 nominee, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, told the New York Times.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    “They voted for Jorgensen knowing that they were abandoning the party with which Libertarians have been more traditionally aligned and knowing that it might mean a Democrat was elected president.”

    Including me. I liked Jo Jorgensen and thought she would have made a better president than Trump or Biden. If I hadn’t voted LP I would have written in John Galt, not voted for Trump.

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  2. TheRealAndy

    For reasons of journalistic integrity, the party should be referred to as the "Libertarian" Party, in quotes.

    Given targets like the Jones Act, the tax code, immigration policy, fuel ethanol, and a host of other practical reform opportunities, these nuts are looking at vaccines and chemtrails? They are as "libertarian" as Trump is "conservative".

    Lincicome 2024.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Ben Connelly

      Oh exactly! If the LP goes for RFK they aren’t Libertarian anymore. Honestly Gary Johnson’s comments about RFK make me glad I didn’t vote for him.

      If RFK Jr. is a libertarian, then I’m not using the term libertarian anymore. I’m a conservative free market fundamentalist, or an anti-statist conservative, or a hawkish traditionalist capitalist.

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  3. Linilulu

    I put my money on Kennedy walking off with the Qanon vote. A girl can dream!

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  4. Jack H Wolf

    I think the calculation that a third party would work against Biden is based on the calculus that Biden's support is more labile. 538 did a deep dive into this and at least with Joe Manchin, Cornel West, and Larry Hogan polling showed that it hurt Biden. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/third-party-candidate-spoiler-trump-biden/
    I could not find any polling with RFK Jr. as the third candidate.
    The Libertarian candidacy is ridiculous with little about RFK being consistent with libertarianism. He is anti vax not from any belief in freedom but from false beliefs about the vaccine. On environment he is pro government interference. I know libertarians, they are not going to go for RFK. They may be rigid ideologically but they are not crazy conspiratorialists and anti capitalists.

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  5. Nsper7

    Given that both major political parties are deeply unpopular and there is a certain amount of flux in terms of voters moving between the parties or becoming Independent (i.e. some suburban whites moving from GOP to Democrat, some Hispanic/Latino, Black, and Asian working-class voters moving from the Democrats to the GOP, more people on both sides are registering Independent, etc.), both RFK Jr. and Prof. Cornel West could act as wildcard spoilers, pulling voters from both parties and the growing number of Independents.

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  6. Randall Briggs

    Chris is most likely correct that RFK Junior will siphon more votes from the crazy-neo-fascist-Putin-loving-Fauci-hating base of the Republicans than from the Democrats.

    If he runs as a 3rd-party candidate, "All the Way with RFK!"

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  7. Avatar photo
    Wj

    The question for me is whether the base's positive Kennedy vibes will survive even if the MAGA propaganda machine turns against him - which it almost certainly will do if he starts to look like a threat to Trump in 2024.

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  8. Randall Briggs

    I agree with Chris that RFK Junior running on a 3rd-party label will siphon off more crazy-angry-conspiracy-theorizing-Fauci-hating-Putin-loving-Ukraine-hating Republicans than Democrats. So I hope he succeeds in that.

    All the way with RFK!

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  9. Avatar photo
    Jonathan

    Truth be told, the implosion of the Libertarian Party is a fun schadenfreude. They don’t matter nearly as much as the two main parties so I don’t worry when I see them devolve into chaos. Though it does speak to the fact that our problem with institutions is deeper than the institutions themselves collectively choosing to be crap. Which is its own worry.

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  10. Cdj

    How big is the new right, conspiracy nut bro cult vote?

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