Support for Israel Is Costing Biden. But for How Long?

One year from now, progressives might be more worried about Donald Trump than angry with the president.

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President Joe Biden sits with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the start of the Israeli war cabinet meeting, in Tel Aviv on October 18, 2023. (Photo by Miriam Alster/AFP/Getty Images)

Since shortly after Hamas’ October 7 terrorist attack against Israel, we’ve been hearing a great deal about the price President Joe Biden will pay for his embrace of the Jewish state.

The first warning signs came from Arab-American voters, who make up a considerable bloc in swing-state Michigan. One poll showed Biden getting only 16 percent of the Arab-Muslim vote in a state he would almost certainly need to win again to retain the White House.

And this week, a new survey from NBC News puts Biden not only at the lowest approval rating of his presidency, but trailing his most likely general election opponent, former President Donald Trump.

Biden’s decline mostly comes not from disenchanted swing voters, but from within his own party. Within that party, he struggles most among younger Democrats, the most progressive—and most critical of Israel—faction. 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Gibby

    The numbers seem to show what many have been saying, all along:

    Trump and Biden are the only ones who can lose to each other

    I actually suspect that the first party that switches horses is going to win

    And I do think both of them will switch horses. I definitely think Steve will win “the bet.”

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  2. Betsybowditch

    I would assume Muslim voters have noticed Biden's attentiveness to the Israeli hostages, who hold US citizenship though they don't appear to be residents of the US, in contrast to naturalized US citizens and their American-born children who couldn't leave Gaza to return to their homes in the US.

    The latter were relegated to the State Dept as they received conflicting information and several delays about when the gate would be open to allow them to leave through Egypt. One man, who held Austrian citizenship, said the most harrowing part of his visit to Gaza was getting to the gate because you could be hit anywhere by an Israeli bomb.

    Yesterday the NYT's reported "more than twice as many women and children have already been reported killed in Gaza than have been confirmed killed in Ukraine, according to United Nations figures, after almost two years of Russian attacks."

    If Muslim voters in Michigan stay home, it could swing the 2024 election. That being said, they may decide Trump could be worse.

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  3. Seth Halpern

    I'm not quite as sanguine that progressives will be averse to spoiling Biden's chances, even once the stakes are imminently clear. I suspect many are just as capable of flipping off the system as Trump's right wing acolytes have been.

    Plus, as Ralph Nader demonstrated, it wouldn't require a multitude.

    That said, Biden has a lot more to lose by backtracking on his neo-neocon posture (re which support for Israel is also a proxy for backing Ukraine, Taiwan and NATO itself) than he would by staying the course.

    For an 81-year-old who has been relentlessly savaged as mentally and physically unfit, policy floundering would be about as useful as a public pratfall.

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  4. Silcad

    I can't see Trump beating Biden head-to-head. The big unknown factor in my mind is the effect 3rd-party candidates will have on the election. Even if Manchin doesn't run, Jill Stein could have the same effect on Biden as she did on Hillary's candidacy.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Jeff Younger

      I couldn’t envision it either a few months ago. But Biden has been a terrible President, and was never “loved” by voters. Trump’s numbers may tank once the Dem ad blitz kicks in, but both candidates have extremely high negative numbers. I guess we get the government we deserve.

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    Rdpulfer

    I think Biden made a critical miscalculation in his full-throttled support of Israel. This may come off as cynical, but I believe Biden wanted to appeal to moderate and hawkish conservative voters by rallying around Israel's plight the same way he did with Ukraine. The problem is, these are nuances between the two situations, and before too long Biden dove headfirst into the cultural divide between conflicting sympathies for Israel and Palestine. It's difficult to predict what both the conflict and the vote will look like a year from now, but it's hard to imagine Trump handling the situation much better (praising Hamas, anyone?), which will probably be top of everyone's mind in 2024 - the one silver lining in all of this.

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    1. Silcad

      Unfortunately, most Arabs don't seem to be able to differentiate between mainstream Palestinians and Palestinian terrorists. This may cost Biden votes, but it is the correct decision. And who knows what other issues will be dominating the news next fall. Those issues will be more likely to affect the election outcome than something that happened a year earlier. Trump was riding high until Covid came along just before the election. His reaction to it cost him votes.

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    Earl King

    Biden has the benefit of defending Israel is the morally correct position when put against murdering terrorist thugs.

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  7. Dave Thatcher

    Mr. Stirewalt I think we. An agree that trump has no view other than “trump good” (and likely doesn’t know what he is talking about. So doesn’t that leave us with Biden’s base is moving away even though, here, he is is right?

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      Carolyn

      Biden's base isn't the young progressives; they are more in line with Elizabeth Warren.

      Biden's base is the Southern Black church ladies.

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  8. Avatar photo
    Delenda Est

    The return of Trump is starting to feel inevitable. At every step the way is being made for him. The failure to convict in his 2nd impeachment. DeSantis' failure to capitalize on his midterm-momentum. The failure in general of the Republican field to consolidate. The failure (thus far anyway) of the 14th Amendment challenges to his eligibility. The dates for his upcoming trials steadily being deferred. The hapless inertia of the Establishment Dems to get past the creeping decrepitude of the Biden Admin. The rise of not one, not two, but *three* potential 3rd-party vehicles to sap the Dems' electoral strength in November of next year - which, if it doesn't hand the presidency back to Trump outright, will at the least throw the election into the House, which is now and will then be under the iron fist of MAGA. Trump could become president again with the support of less than 40% of the national electorate.

    There is very real reason to doubt that this Constitutional democracy will survive it; we will follow the path shown already by most Latin American "democracies" who followed our system.

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  9. Bigdonmck

    Jewish Americans have pretty much voted Democratic.
    And I'm not sure how Muslim Americans have voted in the past.
    I'd be interested to know if that current poll of Jewish Americans is higher than in the past elections and if that paltry Muslim American vote is lower than in the past votes.

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      Ms. SSM

      Muslims are Dems like every other religion in the US aside from Christians. There is really only one demographic in America that isn’t a Dem.

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  10. Avatar photo
    Greg Williams

    Thanks Chris. It's nice to see someone in the political media looking further ahead than today's gotcha headlines. I think right now is probably the peak season for voters to vent in the polls and not really think about the mindset they will probably have in the voting booth. I hope you are right about the wayward dems coming back to Biden because I would hate to see another Trump term and I would hate to have to vote for Biden in order to prevent it. But my gut tells me that Biden has allot more at risk than Trump going forward.

    Lots of stuff will likely happen to influence voters between now and next Nov. I would really appreciate your views on what the most likely wild card game changers might be. I have two.

    First, I think something is likely to happen in or around the major shooting wars that are going on which will herd the undecided sheep to seek cover with the more hawkish right wingers. This need not be an all out escalation or spread of geographic conflict. A serious run in between great power proxies around the conflicts would probably do it.

    The second thing I fear is that Biden will suffer a physical age-related incident far more serious than a gaff about pop music icons. I wouldn't wish it on anybody but I'm afraid a broken hip from a fall or a stroke from the stress is not that far-fetched. Once voters get a look at a newly sworn in President Harris, even if it is temporary, I think that Biden is done.

    Any chance you might pull out your crystal ball for us on this Mr. Stirewalt?

    Greg Williams
    www.christiansoldier21.org

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