The ‘Butcher of Syria’ Now Leads Russia’s Troops in Ukraine

There is apparently a new commander for Russia’s war in Ukraine: Aleksandr Vladimirovich Dvornikov. He is a relatively well-known Russian general who has commanded troops in Chechnya. He is best known for having overall command of Russian troops in Syria during the early years of Russia’s intervention there. Sources for the Guardian describe Dvornikov as “old school” and a “blood and soil nationalist” who has few qualms about civilian deaths. In fact, he’s been labeled the “Butcher of Syria.” He is on sanctions lists because of his command there and some of his activities in Ukraine. Retired U.S. Lt. General Mark Hertling said that the Kremlin would press Dvornikov to achieve a victory in Ukraine by May 9, “Victory Day.” This is the celebration of Nazi Germany’s defeat in World War II and so has a massive significance in Russia, especially while Russia is in the process of “denazifying” Ukraine, as Putin claims. On the other hand, retired U.S. Adm. James Stavridis told NBC: “The appointment of this new general indicates Vladimir Putin’s intent to continue this conflict for months, if not years.”

Without some kind of inside information, it is probably not wise to speculate too much on what Dvornikov’s special orders are or how he will change the way Russia is waging its war on Ukraine. According to some reports, up until this point there has been no overall Russian military commander for their Ukraine invasion! This is yet another piece of evidence of Russia’s poor planning for war and expectation that Ukraine would collapse quickly. (Why would you need an overall commander just to collect surrenders?) So, at least, a unified command in Ukraine may improve Russia’s ability to wage war there.

Dvornikov is probably a very competent and creative general, and he may not do anything predictable or predicated on his previous strategies. As the Institute for the Study of War put it in one of its recent bulletins: “General Alexander Dvornikov is the natural choice to take overall command of Russian operations in Ukraine. There is no reason to suppose Dvornikov was selected for any particular skills or experience, nor is there reason to think the conduct of the Russian war effort will materially change more than it was already changing due to the Russian abandonment of northeastern Ukraine and focus on the east.” Also, talk about how his selection as commander presages “more brutality” does not make that much sense as Russian troops and leaders already appeared set on getting maximally brutal with Ukraine. 

This is not to dismiss any speculation or informed opining about Dvornikov. If nothing else, we might get some insight into how Putin views the war based on who he chose as a commander, and Dvornikov does not seem to be the kind of person one makes a commander if one is looking for a rapid negotiated peace. Dvornikov may have given us some direct insight into his thinking when he penned a 2018 article for the Voenno-Promyshlennyi Kurier, which translates to the Military-Industrial Courier, a weekly magazine reporting on Russian military affairs and related topics. Dvornikov wrote (or had ghostwritten) the article titled “The Staff for New Wars” when he was coming off of his successful command of Putin’s Syria campaign. 

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Comments (19)
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  • Makes me appreciate Norman Schwarzkopf more. Sounds like Russia has more Buck Turgidsons.

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    1. Have you ever SEEN Dvornikov drink water, Mandrake?

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  • Bravo, Andrew. Informative, with a heckuva closing graf.

    God save Ukraine.

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  • People who are susceptible to crazy theories rarely confine that tendency to one particular domain. It sounds a bit like putting Dvornikov in charge might be analogous to Michael Flynn being given a major combat command. Flynn was known to come up with some interesting insights when running intelligence operations related to counterterrorism, but apparently was prone to loopy conspiracy theories and needed to be focused by his staff and superiors. Placed in a 3 star role without those guardrails, he rapidly imploded as director of DIA.
    Dvornikov will be dangerous, but may hinder his own effectiveness by ignoring objective reality in favor of his pet theories.

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  • While we might not be engaging in color revolutions and the like around the world, we surely are engaged in the spread of democracy and freedom around the globe. And if we aren’t, we should be.

    This upsets Russia, China, Iran and other tyrannies because they want to control the population. As long as America stands a beacon for freedom, tyrants can’t pretend it doesn’t exist. Just witness Ovalbak Turdakun’s harrowing description of Chinese camps in Xinjiang.

    I would argue we aren’t doing nearly enough to sanction and isolate countries like China who are brutally abusing their own people. Instead, we built a damned Disney World over there.

    In short, we should make those Russian conspiracies true and get far more aggressive in defending freedom and democracy around the world instead of just reacting to brutality when it covers our faces in egg.

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    1. I'm also in favor of arming democracies to the teeth if they are in real threat (Taiwan, SK, Ukraine, etc).

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      1. Definitely. Liberalism discourages violence in favor of commerce, which is one of the great benefits. Unfortunately, it weakens the muscle memory for defense when aggression comes knocking.

        I always think of America as a fat Dad sitting on the couch watching baseball and these tyrants and bullies like his kids making a commotion in the next room.

        “Do I have to get up and come in there?!”

        He says repeatedly. If they make us get off the couch, it won’t end well for anyone - including us, which is the problem.

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        1. As the biggest military industry, its also pretty messed up that we are willing to sell arms to any country that is not largely in sync with our values (like Saudi Arabia).

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          1. That, I think, is picking the best of a host of bad choices in that region. Iran isn’t any better, though it seems to me that the Democrats desperately prefer that country for some strange reason.

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  • Dvornikov, the commander of Russia’s Southern Military District, has focused exclusively on southeast Ukraine. As southeast Ukraine becomes the main battleground Dispatchers can prepare for his offensive by checking out my Week 6 Recap of the war in Ukraine.

    https://infraredline.substack.com/p/warzone-ukraine-week-6-recap

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  • The Dvornikov excerpt seemed like a quasi-schizophrenic, conflationary screed lifted from a 1970s Cold War movie villain rambling in a vodka-soaked fever dream. I think the Bircher analogy is frightfully apt. This is all unfortunately worrisome for my prediction (and others') that open conflict and eventual nuclear weapon use is inevitable to some extent.

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  • When Russia has generals like this, it really seems farcical that so many in the west are still concerned about OUR responsibility in escalating to WW3. The enemy has a vote too, and they apparently voted to annihilate Ukraine. Ukraine will look like the aftermath of WW3 when this is all over, in no small part due to the west's inability to properly arm them. We gave them enough to keep fighting, but not enough to deter invasion nor win - at least not without tremendous sacrifice. Nuclear proliferation is the only sensible strategy for any small nation bordering a hostile giant, and we have only ourselves and our fecklessness to blame for it. I fully expect a nuclear weapon to be used in my lifetime, I just hope its only one.

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    1. If I had been Ukraine's leaders I'd never have given up the nukes for that reason.

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