What to Expect When You’re Electing, Off-Year Edition

Contests today in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, and Mississippi will give us a sneak peek at the 2024 electorate.

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Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron speaks to the press during a campaign event on November 6, 2023, in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Michael Swensen/Getty Images)

Democrats are having a fit about the latest batch of very gloomy numbers for President Biden, this time from a swing-state poll conducted for the New York Times that shows Biden getting trounced in an Electoral College rematch with former President Donald Trump.  

It’s so bad that the old divisions between Biden and the team behind former President Barack Obama have reemerged, with former Obama adviser David Axelrod calling for Biden to drop out of the race, which came as Obama himself was pretty explicitly undercutting Biden’s staunch pro-Israel line on the country’s current war against Hamas. 

So how bad is it for Biden? Do the polls reflect temporary dissatisfaction that will melt away once voters are forced into a binary choice with Trump? Is there something deeper going on with the electorate and the incumbent that could overcome Trump’s intense negatives with voters?

Lucky for us, today offers five off-year statewide contests that will give us a clearer picture of where voters are heading, including in one presidential battleground state.

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  1. Nikitas Hatzimihail

    Thank you Mr Stirewalt for another excellent analysis. To quote from Ted Lasso (whatever) “It’s the hope that kills you”.

    In the end, Presley lost with a 4.9% margin (btw a 1.4% for an independent). What does this mean? A major moral victory but Mississippi is going to remain the 50th state (at least until Puerto Rico is granted statehood and it moves to 51st? )

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    Mike B

    Clever headline!

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  3. Stonylonesome

    If Tate Reeves is re-elected in Mississippi, the next time the national spotlight swings our way will be to cover the closure of multiple rural hospitals across the state. Heaven forbid we would accept billions from what MAGA-Tate still calls “Obamacare.” Cautiously optimistic about Brandon Presley’s chances today, but I also think Ole Miss has a prayer of beating Georgia next weekend, so don’t take my opinion to the bank.

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      Traceyclairet

      I was born and raised in Mississippi, and though I moved away more than 25 years ago, just coming across the name Mississippi in the news is like reading my family name. I will always care deeply about what happens there. Until 2016, I never would have thought outside the Republican box, but being exiled from my tribe has opened my eyes to so many other possibilities. If I were still there, I would be so happy to have someone like Presley to vote for. It’ll be interesting to see how many other Mississippians feel that way.

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      1. Stonylonesome

        Tracey, you can always come home again! Polls just closed, hoping for the best. Hotty Toddy!!!

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        Traceyclairet

        As for the Ole Miss-Georgia game, Hotty Toddy!

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    2. Curt

      Not sure about the politics in Mississippi, but I'l be pulling for Ole Miss - A Missouri Tiger Fan

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      1. Stonylonesome

        Bless you, my friend! Most of MS was cheering for Mizzou last Saturday! Time to knock GA off their perch. Along with Tate Reeves!

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    Dr. Livesey

    Love the headline ("What to Expect When You’re Electing, Off-Year Edition"). Over the next year, it can be slightly altered for future iterations of this column. Save time! Create a tradition! You'll be legends! Some candidates:

    Advice for when you can't make up your mind: "What to Inspect When You're Electing"

    When both candidates make you spitting mad: "Who to Elect When You're Expectorating"

    When something fishy is going on (and it happens in every presidential election): "What to Inspect When You're Selecting"

    When rumors of corruption in the campaign staff have become public: "Who to Suspect When You're Detecting"

    When the candidate seems reluctant to fire the scandalous staffer: "Who to Reject When You're Electing"

    When Joe Biden's so old he's just gotta drop out: "Who to Eject When You're Electing"

    When a replacement must be found for the just-dropped-out Biden: "Who to Elect When You're Ejecting"

    What a candidate must do to get elected: "How to Attract When You're Interacting"

    First months of a new administration: "What to Subtract When You're Enacting" OR "What to Inject When You're Enacting"

    When a campaigner needs to take back some previous statement, gaffe or position: "What to Inject When You're Redacting"

    Advice for the opposition party: "How to Object When You're Detracting"

    For journalists at any time: "How to Abject When You're Protecting"

    See: I've done all the work for you. Take some time off. The articles should write themselves.

    Advice for the writer of this comment post: "How to Disconnect When You're Protracting"

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    1. BEE

      What did I just read

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        Will Bates

        What to dissect when you’re deflecting

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        Jack

        Pure genius, that’s what.

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    Pgrossjr47

    The results of Kentucky's off-year election for governor can be hard to make sense of. Schools and public offices are closed and the Democrats do a good job of getting their supporters to the polls. However, turnout is often low as there are only a handful of state offices on the ballot and if there is not an issue to motivate turnout, those with jobs do not make the effort to turnout. Matt Bevin tried to ride Trump's coattails to reelection but forgot Trump was not on the ballot. Further, he managed to do one thing Trump is good at and that is to alienate the independent voter. Beshear has the teacher's unions solidly behind him and they were in favor of the one thing that a lot of voters were not when it comes to Bevin and that was the shutdown of the schools. As it has become clearer how much damage was done to the kids, the polls have shifted in Cameron's favor. It was just revealed that half of school age children are performing below grade level. That is an issue the GOP should be able to capitalize on in the national elections. Assuming they remember that the goal of a political party is to win elections, not get 30 seconds on CNN.

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    Dusty

    Does it really tell us much about next year, though? That seems like something the politically-obsessed say about everything. In 2021 the GOP did great in Virginia and New Jersey, and then underperformed in 2022. What happened between those two elections? Events. And absolutely horrible candidate selection.

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      Rickschwartz711

      Trump wasn't involved in Virginia at least in 2021. No talk of stolen elections and such. In 2022, it was Trump again and it didn't play well here in Northern Virginia. Of course, Trump blames us pro-lifers for his failures not his election conspiracy fantasies.

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        Dusty

        Yeah, the blame pro-lifers line has gotten way too much traction, even among Republicans. It somehow didn’t extend to the governors of Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, and Florida who all significantly increased their winning margin or the governor of Texas who maintained his rather large margin. But all the Trumpy terrible candidates lost.

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  7. Michael Hartley

    As someone increasingly drawn to the message of the Forward Party, it seems the long term the fate of the republic depends on restoring to these localized "off-year" elections something akin to the importance attached to the, for lack of a better term, "on-year" elections. The nationalization of all our politics, and news and opinion coverage thereof, is proving toxic. Thanks, Mr. Stirewalt, for keeping an eye on the localized prizes.

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    Connie

    My Kentucky vote is a conundrum.

    As a Never Trump conservative, Cameron’s MAGA credentials disgust me. Seeing Trump in a Cameron advertisement made me flush with anger. On the other hand, Beshear has done a good job, and is easy to vote for as a center-right conservative.

    My concern is Mitch McConnell’s health, and his diminishing probability of completing his term, which ends in 2026. If Beshear appoints someone to the Senate, I fully expect that person to be a Democrat. While I am fine with Beshear leading our state, I am not so fine with the Democrats getting a valuable Senate seat. On the other hand, Cameron would appoint a MAGA Republican to the Senate. We could very well end up with another Hawley or Vance replacing that bulwark against insanity, Cocaine Mitch.

    MAGA-land has destroyed my joy in voting. I just finished rewatching the HBO limited series, “John Adams,” last night. I look at then, compare it to now, and am left deeply saddened and wanting.

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      Bayesian

      "My concern is Mitch McConnell’s health, and his diminishing probability of completing his term".

      I'm not a gerontologist, and if I were I'd be barred by professional canons from commenting as a professional. Still, if forced to place bets, I still think he would be able to vote and understand what he is voting on in three years. But is he capable of functioning as Minority Leader? Far more dubious. Probably better to have the succession clown show (cf Speaker) before the 2024 elections and the (more likely than not IMHO) Republican majority in the Senate (especially if the relevant subset of Whee Thee Peepul also return the Golden-orange Calf to the White House).

      Re "If Beshear appoints someone to the Senate, I fully expect that person to be a Democrat. "

      You think Beshear will be able to sustain a court challenge to KY Statutes 63.200, even enough to get a temp? (the 2021 law that requires the replacement senator to be from the same party as the replaced senator) I don't, but I'm not a specialist in KY constitutional law (or a lawyer at all!).

      Could you give me a pointer to what you consider a convincing analysis?

      Summary for laypeople
      https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2023/07/28/heres-how-kentuckys-law-works-for-filling-u-s-senate-vacancies/70484359007/

      actual statute
      https://apps.legislature.ky.gov/law/statutes/statute.aspx?id=51338

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        Connie

        Huh! How did I miss this? Thank you so much!

        All’s well that ends well… I had already voted for Beshear. ;)

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          Bayesian

          You were probably busy in 2021 living your life. At the time it passed Beshear hinted, without committing himself to any particular course of action, that he would/might challenge it if the opportunity arose.

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    2. J. Everett Schubert

      Well said. I miss the days when I could at least get somewhat excited about voting for a candidate.

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      John

      "MAGA-land has destroyed my joy in voting. " Great line and I agree, though it's been a long time since my attitude toward voting has approached anything like joy.

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  9. ModeratelyLibertarian

    "We won’t learn too much about persuadable voters from these low-turnout contests..."

    I live in the 4th most populous city in America, Houston, where a mayoral race is being decided; Sheila Jackson Lee is on the ballot. Yes, I definitely voted in this off year, "low-turnout" election. Pray for us. :-P

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    1. Ufodaddy

      me too.

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    2. Pwjohns1983

      I live in Tomball, and I am like “Would a Lee victory actually be good for my property value?” haha

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      1. ModeratelyLibertarian

        I'd dare say that Lee just residing here brings down the property value across the whole state. :-)

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  10. Engineersighted

    I haven't read it yet, but I had to say this is an outstanding headline.

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