It’s Later Than You Think

Hope for a game-changing SOTU falls flat.

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233
Joe Biden, moderator and NBC News anchor Kristen Welker, and Donald Trump participate in the final presidential debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, on October 22, 2020. (Photo by JIM BOURG/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Not for another seven and a half months will there be truly meaningful news at the polls to analyze, but I suppose Tuesday night’s primary results warrant a word or two.

So here’s a word or two: We remain, as a people, trapped in the darkest timeline.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    This is democracy for you. This is the kind of choice we get.

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  2. Bloodredinabluestate

    SOTU addresses are usually such boring affairs that it's easy to understand that they never matter. I think Biden's SOTU address this time was slightly different in that many people tuned in just to see if Biden would implode. Getting a bounce would have been nice, but I think the primary aim was not to lose ground.

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  3. Pohl

    The time has finally arrived for Nick’s gloom and doom to shine at TD. I agree with this article, and it’s why I’ve been saying Weekend at Biden’s should be his campaign slogan. The best argument for re-electing him is that, even were he to die in office, whatever comes next is still preferable to Trump. It’s not the end of the world to vote for Biden. Best case, he ambles along through a second term while not being Trump. Worst case, he passes the torch to someone else who will do equally as well at not being Trump. There’s really no downside. Four more years!

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  4. Dougrhon

    How could ANYTHING Biden says or does convince anyone that he can still be serving a full five years from now. We all have parents or grandparents who have aged (or are aging ourselves) we all know reality. The odds of even a completely fit 81 year old being fit at 84 and 85 are very low. Not even even. Low. It's madness to even elect a 78 year old let alone an 82 year old. This is irrespective of anything either of these bozos say or do.

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    1. Avatar photo
      PJ

      Does not matter unless Biden is not qualified constitutionally on election day. You can thank the GOP for running an unqualified candidate, and our binary political system.

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      1. Pohl

        Correct. If Biden, heaven forbid, has a heart attack while I’m at the polling station, I will still vote for him. I would also vote for Oprah, Tom Cruise, Tom Hanks, Tom Bodett, Tom and Jerry—literally anyone besides Trump. How is this not what we’re all thinking? I mean, we deserve Trump. Are his followers just all self-loathing?

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      2. Dougrhon

        Of course it matters. It matters who the president is. And no while I of course blame Republicans for nominating an also very old man who happens to he a lunatic I won't excuse the Democrats or Biden himself for their irresponaibility.

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        1. Chucky Bob

          I just had a long conversation with my dad who is in his 80s. The whole time he was ranting about how much he dislikes Trump, but he kept coming back to "but Biden's worse." I asked him what that meant and he said he's old and incompetent. Granted. I'm not going to try to polish the turd that is voting for Biden. But I refuse to do what I did in 2016 and allow my contempt for the democrats to enable the continued spiral of the Republicans away from my conservative ideology. Back then I had a lot of doubts about Trump, but also a lot of unknowns. The unknowns are gone. I won't defend Biden, but I will vote for him becuase I cannot support Trump. I lobbied hard for people in my life to vote for Haley and she still lost so this is where I am.

          I view this like I view the Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Hamas wars. I will not commit to defend every decision by Zelensky/Netanyahu, but it has to cross some serious lines before I will ever get past "the other side is the aggressor and not only that, but has committed horrible atrocities along the way. The war should end when the bad guys lose, not when the victims get enough bad PR." When Trump goes away, then I'll start listening to arguments about why the Dems are horrible again, until then, I'd vote for a sock puppet over that megalomaniac.

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          1. Dougrhon

            I understand. I won't fault you. As for me I refuse to be forced into a binary choice between two genuinely unacceptable candidates. I'll write someone in. Probably John Fetterman who I probably disagree with on every issue but one.

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  5. Kevin M

    The way things are going, Trump could die and his poll numbers would rise.

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    1. Chucky Bob

      Someone told me he should be assassinated. I chastised him and told him you shouldn't wish that on anyone and that we don't want a political system where that is considered an acceptable route...But that doesn't mean I don't pray for him to have an aneurysm, either. Deus ex machina...

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    2. Avatar photo
      PJ

      It would raise my impression of him as a candidate.

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    3. Avatar photo
      BloggerBarbie

      And come to think of it, we don't actually have anything in the Constitution that says a president must actually be alive, do we?

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  6. Avatar photo
    Mick.Staton

    "To those wishing upon a star that there’s a “shy anti-Trump vote” deus ex machina poised to rescue America this fall, I would say this: What makes you so sure there isn’t still a “shy pro-Trump vote” lurking within the electorate that will emerge and propel him to an even more resounding victory than the current polling indicates?"

    Well, other than the fact you have been wrong on most every prediction you have made this primary season, Nick, there is one very obvious reason there is not a "shy pro-Trump vote" out there. The pro-Trump vote has taken over the Republican party. It is no longer a, "hold my nose and vote for Trump" situation. Trump voters are now large and in charge, and they are proclaiming quite loudly that anyone who is not pro-Trump is no longer welcome in the Republican party. When your entire identity and friend circle is dependent on your party politics, you aren't going to go out on a limb to declare yourself an apostate.

    No, what you will do is very quietly go to your polling place and leave the vote for President blank, or even hold your nose and vote for Biden.

    In the meantime, if you are Biden and the Democrats, you will take your massive fundraising advantage and pound Trump into the ground with advertising. Then you will step out of the way and let Trump hang himself with undecided voters and independents. Let's look at Trump's self-inflicted wounds in just the last few days:

    - He hangs all Republicans out to dry when he says he wants to protect Tik Tok
    - He declares he will cut entitlements and social security, then he says he won't cut them.
    - He tells Viktor Orban he will end the Ukraine war by completely cutting off their support and let them be slaughtered by the Russians.
    - He says that on day one he will pardon all the insurrectionists who stormed the Capitol on January 6th.

    If you are an independent and are still not sure who to vote for, or are a little uneasy with Biden's age, a few more gems like those will make up your mind real quick.

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  7. GMANwPlan

    I believe the one critical issue not yet baked into the polling is how the two candidates will be viewed through the prism of reproductive rights. Once this portion of the campaign rhetoric gets underway, we will have a better idea of how well those polling numbers hold up. This is not a "black swan event" per se, but rather a hibernating animal that has yet to emerge from its subterranian lair.

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  8. Srhritz

    Why is the political realignment going towards Trump in much larger numbers? If working class voters are heading rightward and the Republicans are becoming more populist, why aren't more college educated voters not going towards Biden? Could this be due to Reagan Republicans choosing to remain hostages to the MAGA movement?

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    1. Dougrhon

      Could it be a percentage of educated voters don't think an 82 year old should be elected president?

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    2. On Fox River

      For many of us college-educated independents, the choice is not binary. We're quite capable of hating Trump and detesting (for example) Biden's open border policy to the point of refusing to vote for him as well. Those of us who don't live in swing states have the luxury of enthusiastically picking None of the Above.

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  9. Crankytroll2

    "Needle of horror." I love it!

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  10. Anna K. Gorisch

    The only people who saw the SOTU as strong was the commentariat. I watched it on CSPAN to avoid said commentariat, and there were numerous occasions where he slurred and struggled with the speech that caused me to cringe. Now I'm being asked to believe that he ONLY slurred 5 or 6 times therefore it was a success. Also, I thought the man was amped on something before I learned that that's the GOP line. The bar has been set rather low - hey, he didn't faint or slur more than 10 times, success!!

    I don't envy you or your readers, Nick. 8 months of struggle sessions to accept that not everybody sees it the way you do. Not everyone is terrified of a second Trump term to the point they will do anything - including voting for someone they disagree with at every level and who is not fit - to stop him.

    As I recall, you couldn't find it in yourself to advocate for Haley when she was running against Trump. Now you have the audacity to suggest she might endorse Biden? It's not going to happen.

    Finally, this statement: "the right’s devolution into a Trump-worshiping cult of personality..." Would you at least limit that to the GOP? He hasn't captured the entire right.

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    1. Paul in NC

      He's captured most of it. So much so, in fact, the Trumpster's are actively telling traditional Republicans to get lost.

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      1. Anna K. Gorisch

        If he's throwing conservatives out of the party, then "the right" is not captivated by Trump. I can't wait to wear my Permanently Barred t-shirt. Not everyone who leans to the right is in his thrall.

        The diminished and shrinking GOP may be a cult of personality, but it's unserious to lay that at the feet of "the right." Frankly it's little sleights of hand that bother me the most about Nick's pieces.

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        1. Chucky Bob

          Well according to Trump's cokehead son, MAGA=conservative now. I'm not sure he actually knows what conservative means. It's just another term hijacked by the Trump noise machine. It's kind of like evangelical. The Good Faith podcast early on did a show called "What the heck is an evangelical?" and they laid out the actual definition of one. Then they looked at polling of self-professed evangelicals and they didn't check any of the boxes. So, I'm stuck being an evangelical conservative when the popular conception of both terms is, in many ways, the exact opposite of how I would describe my beliefs both political and religious.

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          1. Anna K. Gorisch

            So the first thing I think is, "Biden has a crackhead son." Then I remember Obama's defense of Bristol Palin when everybody insulted her for getting pregnant at 18. I don't know which of his sons you mean, but that individual doesn't get to define conservatism, and I don't care if anyone uses cocaine.

            My understanding of evangelical is that it involves the desire to convert others (evangelize). Conservative represents conserving institutions. I can agree that MAGA may not meet the description, but that just means conservatism is apart from MAGA.

            Personally I don't put much stock in what Trump or his progeny have to say (especially his progeny). I understand some people here are sure that Trump will, in one term, make the US a hereditary monarchy but I can't follow you there.

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