No Excuses

The uses of Mike Pence and Chris Christie.

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Former Vice President Mike Pence speaks to supporters during his presidential campaign launch on June 7, 2023 in Ankeny, Iowa. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Conventional wisdom has it that the three newest entrants into the Republican primary don’t stand the barest chance of winning, that they’ll be lucky if their combined national polling breaks double digits in the end.

Well, I’m here to tell you: The conventional wisdom is correct.

Mike Pence, Chris Christie, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum could plausibly reach 10 percent collectively, mostly on the strength of Pence’s name recognition, but I wouldn’t bet a ton on it. Christie and Burgum will be lucky to make the debates given the donor threshold set by the RNC. And Pence couldn’t safely navigate a gathering of his own party’s base without needing personal security.

It bears repeating on the occasion of his announcement: Mike Pence will not lead a party whose most ardent devotees have been heard to chant “Hang Mike Pence.”

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    Pence and Christie can do a good-cop-bad-cop routine on Trump. It just might have enough of an effect to narrowly deny him the nomination. Either that or Trump will have a heart attack on the trail.

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  2. Avatar photo
    John N.

    A lot of us *already have* clarity. We know, we see, what republican voters have become.

    For many, many millions of us, that is the reason we are not republican voters any more.

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  3. EireExpat

    I wouldn’t have believed it if I didn’t witnessed it but this article reminds me of a Trump voter I know who’s a smoker and was talking about their struggles with health and attempting to quit.

    “If only someone had told me how dangerous smoking was I never would have gotten hooked. If only someone …”

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    1. Avatar photo
      Chuckgold

      That's exactly it. They do what they choose, regardless. We've had cigarette warning labels since the sixties. Trump has been a known jerk, draft dodger, cheat, and philanderer since the seventies, and certainly since he came down the escalator.

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  4. Richard Kropas

    "There were many excuses for voting for Trump in 2016. “He’s an outsider.” “He’s something different after years of losing with establishment candidates.” “He’s running against the most hated Democrat in America.” “He won’t be as bad in office as everyone thinks.”
    There was a straightforward excuse in 2020. “He’s the incumbent.”

    I voted Trump in 2016 but he was my last choice of the 17 people in the primary. You are correct about HRC, so anyone was going to get my support.
    But in 2020 I also voted for Trump although by that time I wanted almost anyone else and would have supported Biden if not for the summer 2020 riots where I felt the entire American society was collapsing.
    Currently I would never support Trump again or anyone who does not actively admonish him. Asa or Christie is about all I see that fits although neither is going to come close to winning any primaries.

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    1. David Smith

      I don't understand why you would vote to re-elect the guy under whom it felt like "the entire American society was collapsing". His leadership--or lack of--was a pretty direct factor there.

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      1. Richard Kropas

        I get that. At the time I blamed democrats (not Biden in particular) and still feel we are a million miles from solving problems of race relations. I was just trying to show there are some like myself who never liked Trump but found the choices worse. I no longer feel this way. In hindsight I wish HRC had won.

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  5. Rossknode

    Here's the thing with Pence. He didn't stand up to Trump until it was 100% about him. How exactly is that courage? He sat back and watched him attack others and even supported it. "Attacking them is fine but attacking me isn't." Please, that's gutless.
    And pretty much everything Christie said in that soundbite is accurate. Why do Trump's acolytes feel the need to constantly make excuses for him? If he needs excuses then maybe he's not as strong or tough as he says he is.

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    1. Deleted Comment

      This comment has been deleted

      1. Rossknode

        Yeah. I would vote for Cheney or Hogan. I like Christie too.

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  6. Cvanheck2015

    Mike Pence “choked” response to the “gift wrapped” question concerning Trump’s pending (at the time) indictment for concealing classified information, I believe he made the correct decision. Though we knew the indictment was pending, we had no idea when. More importantly, we had, and continue to have inadequate information concerning the charges. As of this moment (9 June) the indictment remains sealed. It was an unreasonable question in that given moment. Pence should be asked what he thinks (rather than feels) about the matter after the indictments are unsealed. But again, that may be problematic for him as he may be called to testify. I have no doubt the Federal case will be airtight. The Justice Department would not have moved against Trump if it wasn’t. There is also the fact that defendants charged and tried in Federal cases never win. However, innocent until proven guilty must be the standard here. My own personal hope is that the Republican Party will find its backbone and shift to away from Trump and his so-called base. Chris Christie has shown the spine. He was correct in noting that Trump doesn’t own those who voted for him. Though I lack concrete polling data, I suspect a moderate leaning to the right Republican could lead to the Republicans doing very well in the election. I base this primarily on recent votes in the House and Senate. People are weary of all the drama from both the far left and the far right. Finally, I would add that any candidate who speaks of pardoning Trump shows disregard for the judiciary and judicial process. We are going to face constitutional issues similar to those could have arisen had Nixon been impeached and tried in a court of law.

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  7. Dougrhon

    There is no future for the GOP through Trump. We might as well find out just how die hard his cult actually is and how large it actually is. I generally favor DeSantis as the one most likely to take out Trump BUT he will never succeed by being the "younger competent" Trump. Never. Not a chance. And if he continues to lay off while Christie and Pence tell the truth, it will diminish him. And probably ruin him. But it is early days so let's see. The reality is that if Trump is nominated by winning delegates with a plurality, it will be sign (as if one is needed) that this system need major alteration.

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    1. AJLiberty

      DeSantis' reaction captured at Mediate: “The weaponization of federal law enforcement represents a mortal threat to a free society. We have for years witnessed an uneven application of the law depending upon political affiliation.”

      Trump was given extraordinary latitude to return the documents and do an appropriate accounting. Instead, he turned it into a game of keep-away....with the final shoe dropping being an audio tape of him sharing a classified military document with an uncleared audience. How is this weaponization? How is it uneven? Again, this is either super-sized hubris, gross incompetence, or malicious intent…or some combination of the three. The concern is how does a Harvard and Yale lawyer guy like DeSantis not get this? I think he does, which means he's struggling to tell his electorate the truth...precisely when they need to hear it.

      The GOP needs straight talk. Hutchinson delivered it. Romney delivered it. And that's it. Unacceptable. This is a softball. This isn't time to play more politics.

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      1. rickle

        The FBI strikes me as one of the few moral actors left in government. Other than Comey’s grandstanding Hilary’s email, where else has the Justice department been “weaponized”?

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        Chuckgold

        Amen!!! ❤️

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      3. Dougrhon

        Agree 100 percent.

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  8. Nemmerle924

    One guy at 35% criticizing Trump on policy vs 3 guys at 35%, 1% and 1% criticizing Trump on policy, and everything else, is about the same numerically, but FEELS like 3x as much fighting back. Number of attack channels matters.

    Gladwell's The Tipping Point is an excellent read, and applicable here. The resistance to Trump is gaining steam (abetted by Trump himself behaving like a boorish clown) - these extra candidates help with getting that argument to the tipping point.

    Once it tips over look for DeSantis to be an utter juggernaut crushing all opposition. Many of us dont like his illiberalism. But he's 50x preferable to Trump.

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  9. Belisarius.Aves

    There are three reasons this is different 1) In 2016 they thought they could pick up his support so there were tepid critiques from Rubio and Jeb Bush. But Cruz, the guy who could have made the case, was too late 2) We saw the horrible sycophancy yesterday in McCarthy's unwavering support despite not even seeing the indictment 3) Trump loves to counter punch but had never had to do so against a field. And right now he is not doing so great at it. DeSunctus? Compare that to Little Marco or Crooked Hillary. And he praised ... Cuomo?

    His supporters love two things 1) Entertainment and 2) thinking he is the one who can fight the left. The first is grown stale and the second would be better done by RDS.

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  10. The Widow’s Son

    “At a town hall with CNN on Wednesday night, Pence was asked how he felt about his old boss possibly being indicted by the Justice Department for concealing classified documents. It was a gift-wrapped opportunity to build on the case that his opponent is unfit for office, but Pence couldn’t bring himself to do it. He choked.“

    What? That makes zero sense. Of course Pence didn’t use the indictment possibility to build his case; Pence is in similar legal jeopardy for having classified materials!

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    1. rickle

      I believe Pence’s position was that it would be better for everyone if we didn’t have to put the country through a trial and conviction - Not so subtly intimating that he would pardon Trump ala Gerald Ford.
      It actually makes a lot of sense. Beyond the Christian principles, it would quell the inevitable unrest that would surface if Trump was put behind bars.

      Such an agreement would have to come with a vow of silence to refrain from any further political activities and be banned from office.

      As much as I’d love to see him in orange, I really just don’t want to see him at all…

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    2. Rossknode

      No he's not because he didn't conceal them once the government asked for them back. Guarantee the indictment will focus on that behavior, not simply having the documents.

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      1. The Widow’s Son

        The DOJ can change its mind.

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    3. J. Walter Weatherman

      No, he isn't. The DOJ has already stated that they are not going to charge Pence, because there was no intentionality.

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      1. Harryanderson74

        There was no intentionality and, more importantly, there was no appearance of obstruction. It seems both Pence and Biden searched for the documents themselves and volunteered to return them.

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      2. The Widow’s Son

        For now. That decision can be changed.

        Moreover, Trump and his MAGA supporters would not see the distinction and, in fact, would intentionally ignore the distinction.

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