Conventional wisdom has it that the three newest entrants into the Republican primary don’t stand the barest chance of winning, that they’ll be lucky if their combined national polling breaks double digits in the end.
Well, I’m here to tell you: The conventional wisdom is correct.
Mike Pence, Chris Christie, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum could plausibly reach 10 percent collectively, mostly on the strength of Pence’s name recognition, but I wouldn’t bet a ton on it. Christie and Burgum will be lucky to make the debates given the donor threshold set by the RNC. And Pence couldn’t safely navigate a gathering of his own party’s base without needing personal security.
It bears repeating on the occasion of his announcement: Mike Pence will not lead a party whose most ardent devotees have been heard to chant “Hang Mike Pence.”