The Vibes, They Are A-Shiftin’

Aren’t they?

By
358
Donald Trump and Joe Biden debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, on October 22, 2020. (Photos by Brendan Smialowski and Jim Watson/ AFP/Getty Images)

Are Joe Biden’s chances at reelection improving?

A lull in the Republican primary is an opportune moment to tackle the question, especially now that the outcome on the GOP side is no longer in doubt. To the extent it ever was.

In August, we considered the Biden victory scenario. As weak as the president is, squint hard and you can make out how he might outperform his 2020 margins against Donald Trump this fall. The economy keeps rolling; Trump is convicted of one or more felonies; horror stories from red states that have banned abortion galvanize liberal turnout; Biden remains mostly lucid on the campaign trail.

There’s no trick to beating Trump. He’ll do most of the work. Just get out of the way and let him do his thing.

But you know how this newsletter works by now. Optimism never lasts long.

So in September, we considered the Trump victory scenario. Voters miss the strong pre-pandemic Trump economy; they despise the disaster on the southern border over which Biden has presided; and after a fiasco in Afghanistan and a stalemate in Ukraine, they fear that the president has lost control of events abroad. Grandpa Joe is probably one public “senior moment” away from landing in an electoral hole he can’t climb out of. There’s no need to squint to see how we end up with Trump II: This Time It’s Personal.

That was five months ago. With both candidates on track to sweep their parties’ primaries, which scenario is more likely now?

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    “If the economy is working, many will conclude it must be in spite of him rather than because of him. ”

    It’s always in spite of him, not because of him. Deregulation and eliminating tariffs and price controls and other nonsensical policies will help the economy, but that’s only by removing what’s actively harming it. Beyond not doing harm, or doing less harm, there’s not much the federal government can do about the economy.

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  2. Crankytroll2

    With death or dementia just around the corner for both Presidential candidates, I'm wondering why there isn't more attention - or panic - focused on Vice-Presidential candidates. Biden has apparently selected his (hence the "panic" reference). Advantage Trump, if he could persuade Haley to be his. She's ambitious and I'm betting she'd go for it, despite whatever private feelings, probably loathing, she may have for him. It would require him to eat some of his nasty words, no problem at all for a coprophage.

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  3. ConProf

    A slightly less shitty shit sandwich is still a shit sandwich. Biden getting reelected is hardly a victory for the country.

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    1. Marc Whipple

      I think Biden has done pretty well as POTUS, particularly on foreign policy. But given the alternative to Biden is narcissistic, authoritarian, and seditious, Joe should be getting a lot more support. This should be an easy choice for Americans who value civic virtue and good citizenship.

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    Kyle Rose

    I feel like I have to say this on every story now, but to be clear:

    I don't want Joe Biden to be President again. He hasn't quite been a disaster, but he's not a good President: he's old and weak and projects oldness and weakness, he appears to believe there are no limiting principles on executive branch powers, he's constantly putting politics ahead of what's good for America, he governs like Bernie Sanders despite having a mandate merely to be not-Trump, etc. That he's better than the other guy doesn't make him desirable.

    So pardon me if I'm not going to run around and cheer a "vibe shift" toward Joe Biden. If Nikki Haley doesn't somehow pull off a miracle in the GOP primary, my vote is likely going to No Labels, unless they chicken out or nominate someone more reprehensible (which, while possible, is highly unlikely). And I hope the cohort of like-minded people who have had enough of these old coots is sufficient to make that a viable choice. Otherwise, I will have to be satisfied with a dice roll for control of the executive branch this November.

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    1. Marc Whipple

      See my comment directly above. The alternative to Biden is narcissistic, authoritarian, and seditious. Whatever you believe are Biden's faults, they do not sink to the depth of Trump's unfitness for POTUS. A vote for Biden is a matter of civic virtue and good citizenship.

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        Kyle Rose

        Well, you have fun with that. Let me know how it goes.

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        1. Marc Whipple

          If Trump wins in November, we will all find out if I am right. My prediction is existential shit show for 4 years, and possibly longer. I hope Biden wins, so anti anti-Trumpers and "Biden is just as bad as Trump(ers)" don't have to apologize to the rest of us for the damage to the country caused by their foolishness.

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  5. John Geffel

    According to Yale U researchers their adjusted analysis found that "the excess death rate among Republican voters was 43% higher than the excess death rate among Democratic voters" after vaccine eligibility was opened.”

    So it seems to me that if people are willing to die before admitting they are wrong, there’s certainly a case to be made that “blind faith” is a strong determinant for people’s behavior So against all evidence to the contrary, they truly and honestly believe that Trump will, in fact, “make America great again.” Come hell or high water he’s their guy.

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    1. Craigowen1112

      In the researchers' adjusted analysis of the period after April 1, 2021, they calculated Democratic voters' excess death rate at 18.1, and Republicans' at 25.8 — a 7.7 percentage-point difference equating to a 43% gap.

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  6. Dougrhon

    There is NO optimistic scenario. We are in for a world of hurt either way.

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  7. Ken Motamed

    "Fifty-three percent of swing-state voters in the Bloomberg poll said they wouldn’t vote for Trump if he’s convicted of a crime before November." The vast majority of that 53% wouldn't vote for Trump anyway. And convictions are appealed, which should, to a reasonable person, lessen their importance.

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    1. Wes.Bridges

      Wouldn’t it be a fascinating exercise to attempt to quantify the cost to the taxpayers of prosecuting Trump? THERE’S an interesting data point.

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  8. Dancrist13

    In that group of swing state polls, while Trump led in each state, he was also below 50% in each state. I'm not saying the remainder in each state will become Biden voters, but his standing is less solid than his supporters think.

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  9. James Burdi

    I find it fascinating that so many otherwise thoughtful people think that “but Trump” or “but Biden” is a cogent rebuttal to a negative point about a candidate. That the other guy is bad, or even worse, does not make your guy worth my vote. There are alternatives, if we choose them.

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    1. M L

      I do wonder what the write-in/third party vote will look like. Could be a banner year. I think the only thing that will really piss me off is when the victor takes his flaccid win from a low turnout election with embarrassingly large alternative votes and claims a scorched earth mandate. And he will, and it galls me.

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    2. Marc Whipple

      Voting for an alternative is a failure of civic virtue and good citizenship when one of the two major party candidates is a threat to the Republic.

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      1. James Burdi

        What if BOTH are a threat? You have a preferred path to destruction. I don't. It's not a failure of civic virtue. It is the only moral choice that I can make in good conscience. that is why we live in a free society. So that I can vote my conscience.

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        1. Marc Whipple

          Biden is not a threat to the Republic. Trump is. One of the two is a bat shit crazy narcissist with seditious and authoritarian impulses. The other one is Joe Biden.

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          1. James Burdi

            And that is where we disagree. Let us leave it at that.

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    3. Kittyecws

      There are alternatives, or might be, but the election will come down to either Biden or Trump.

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  10. Mattfrommo

    When considering data about the economy, inflation is different than anything else. I say this because, the problem is not solved just because the data looks better. When unemployment goes down, the problems associated with not having a job have indeed gone away for those who were hired. Whatever residual problems that built up during their period of unemployment are usually dealt with in a few months. Inflation is different. The growth in prices may have slowed, but those prices did not return to pre-Biden levels. The damage that was already done still remains and it will until wages catch back up. For some people, that will never really happen.

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