Abortion On the Ballot in Tomorrow’s Off-Year Elections

Plus: Biden’s poll numbers set off alarm bells among Democrats.

By , and
65

Happy Monday! Andrew lost in all three of his fantasy football leagues this week. Please keep him in your thoughts during this trying time.

Up to Speed

  • Voters head to the polls in several states this week for off-year elections, including gubernatorial contests in Kentucky and Mississippi and state legislative elections in Virginia. Kentucky’s Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is being challenged by Republican state attorney general Daniel Cameron, while GOP Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves takes on Democrat Brandon Presley.
  • Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds will endorse Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for president at a Monday rally in Des Moines, the Des Moines Register first reported Sunday. The move isn’t unexpected: Reynolds and DeSantis have long shared a similar governing outlook, and Reynolds has frequently appeared at her Florida counterpart’s Iowa events. Her endorsement comes as DeSantis desperately needs a shot in the arm, failing to close former President Donald Trump’s huge polling lead in Iowa and slipping out of second place in several other key early states. 
  • Donald Trump lashed out at Reynolds after the news of her coming endorsement broke, calling her and DeSantis “two extremely disloyal people” and threatening that the endorsement would be “the end of her political career in that MAGA would never support her again.”
  • The third Republican presidential debate of the year will take place this Wednesday evening in Miami. Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, and Chris Christie have all qualified to participate; Donald Trump will once again skip the event and counterprogram it with a nearby rally.
  • Trump is set to testify again under oath today in his ongoing New York civil fraud trial, where he is accused of inflating his net worth in documents to obtain better terms on loans from banks and insurers.
  • Former Rep. Peter Meijer of Michigan announced Monday he is running for Senate, targeting the seat being vacated by outgoing Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow. The one-term lawmaker lost his House primary last year to a Trump-backed challenger, John Gibbs, over his vote to impeach the former president after January 6. Gibbs went on to lose to Hillary Scholten, a Democrat, in November. Meijer joins a Republican field that includes former Rep. Mike Rogers and former Detroit police chief James Craig. 

Ohio to Decide on Abortion Rights Constitutional Amendment

Canvassers hold pro-life signs at Columbus Christian Center ahead of Election Day during a pro-life canvasing meeting in Columbus, Ohio, on November 4, 2023. (Photo by MEGAN JELINGER/AFP via Getty Images)
Canvassers hold pro-life signs at Columbus Christian Center ahead of Election Day during a pro-life canvasing meeting in Columbus, Ohio, on November 4, 2023. (Photo by MEGAN JELINGER/AFP via Getty Images)

Ohio voters will go to the polls tomorrow to decide a colossal question: whether to enshrine the right to an abortion in their state constitution.

It’s the latest test of how far abortion-access advocates can push their electoral advantage—and whether the pro-life side can stop the electoral bleeding—one year after the end of Roe v. Wade.

The measure, State Issue 1, would establish a “right to make and carry out one’s own reproductive decisions” while recreating Roe’s own restriction standard: permitting prohibitions on abortion after fetal viability except when “in the professional judgment of the pregnant patient’s treating physician it is necessary to protect the pregnant patient’s life or health.” Ohio currently bans abortion after 22 weeks. A six-week ban signed in 2019 by Republican Gov. Mike DeWine is currently stalled in state courts.

You're out of free articles
Create an account to unlock 1 more articles
By signing up with your email, you agree to The Dispatch’s privacy policy and terms and conditions
Already have an account? Sign In
65
By , and
Comments (65)
Join The Dispatch to participate in the comments.
 
  1. Jenaigoss

    My voting ballot seemed rather boring this year, at least with no huge decisions to make. But it was rather nice to have a moment of normalcy, with many local races for schools or sewer districts in the like simply a matter of choosing between a seemingly competent incumbent with good results and a seemingly competent opponent with good ideas or a better fiscal or community focus. There were only a couple races where I felt that if the person I voted against won, there might be noticeable negative results.

    I think I am going to miss this years quiet ballot come next year, where it's going to be more important to weed out the crazies.

    Collapse
  2. Dancrist13

    I can see the argument that Trump made DeSantis's career -- it's an exaggeration, and he was already a member of the House of Representatives, but Trump played a role in him winning the Republican nomination for governor.

    Nikki Haley, on the other hand, was already the twice-elected governor of South Carolina when Trump came along. She took the job as Ambassador to the United Nations (which seemed like an odd move at the time), but that never seemed like much of a promotion.

    Also, given that Haley appointed Scott to the Senate, there's a stronger argument that Scott owes his political career to Haley than that Haley owes hers to Trump.

    Collapse
  3. Biebighauser

    Re: Virginia. The Dispatch keeps saying the Republicans need to gain 4 seats in the state senate to achieve a majority. This is incorrect. The current margin is 22-18, so a gain of 2 seats would result in a tie that would be broken by the Republican lieutenant governor. The Dispatch has repeatedly made this incorrect assertion and I have pointed it out at least twice before. I find it really disappointing that The Dispatch is so ill informed as to keep repeating this inaccurate information. Who is editing this content? Anyone who knows anything?

    Collapse
    1. circle-angle-nib
      Michael Warren vertical-nib Author

      Thanks for commenting, Biebighauser. I take your point given the current margin, so perhaps some added context was necessary here to explain what we mean by Republicans needing to win four seats to win the majority in the state senate. That was my mistake, since I'm editing this content and I knew better.

      Because of redistricting (and several retirements), it's generally understood that of the 40 senate seats, 18 are safe for Democrats and 16 are safe for Republicans. This is assuming that there are no crazy upsets in one of these "safe" districts, but for our purposes, we can make that assumption.

      That leaves 6 seats that are thought to be the battlegrounds for today's election. They're the 6 both parties have poured resources into. If Republicans can win races in 4 of those 6 swing districts, they can add them to their 16 safe districts and will have 20 seats. With the vote of the lieutenant governor to break a tie, that would give the GOP effective control of the senate. So while Republicans have 18 seats in the senate right now, that's with an old map. As I said, you raised a good point, and perhaps in an effort to avoid bogging readers down in the specifics of redistricting, we erred in our shorthand approach. But I'm happy to lay out the context here in the comments!

      Thanks for keeping us honest and for reading.

      Collapse
      1. Biebighauser

        Thanks for responding. Needless to say, this convoluted context has been missing from your assertions about the Virginia senate breakdown and probably should have been mentioned earlier. Nonetheless, thank you for providing the context. This is one of those cases where two things can be true at the same time. The good news is with the election being today we will know the answer soon enough and we won't have to worry about the calculations anymore.

        Collapse
  4. Avatar photo
    Dusty

    I can guess the way the Ohio amendment is going to go, unfortunately. So I'm most interested in Virginia's legislative races and Kentucky's governor race. Both are tests of popular governors in states that tend not to vote for the governor's party, though perhaps more directly in Kentucky. I don't know much about Daniel Cameron, but he appears to be a pretty strong candidate from the McConnell coaching tree who nevertheless is the underdog heading into tomorrow.

    Collapse
  5. Avatar photo
    Bill B

    The NY/Sienna College survey is concerning. The really interesting question was;

    "If Joe Biden/Donald Trump were not the Democratic/Republican nominee, do you think you would "Definitely/Probably" vote for the Democratic/Republican nominee?

    Net 48% Democrats/Net 52% Republican

    Doesn't look that even with another generic Democrat running they win. Democrats are in deep trouble. Question is will they figure this before or after the election?

    And "Thinking about the nation's economy, how would you rate economic conditions today?"

    52% said "Poor". Have people been taking crazy pills or just have no memory previous to 2016? It's some inflation, it's not the frickin' Great Depression.

    Let's suppress interest rates for another decade so we can all afford to drown in consumer debt and we'll be delirious with joy and Biden will be elected for life.

    2024
    More Stuff Now!

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      Rdpulfer

      That is the worrying part. If Trump wins in 2024, people are counting on him to bring prices down. The only way I see that feasibly happening is if the high interest brings inflation down before or around the time of the election, and Trump takes credit for it.

      But if interest rates remain high into 2025, Trump will probably appoint someone to cut interest rates down...with rising inflation as a result.

      How high can it go?

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        Bill B

        Trump will be to busy delivering the "retribution" he promised his voters to worry about inflation.

        It's already been made abundantly clear that every tragedy or error can be laid at the steps of Democrats and it will get a welcome ear and fierce support from nearly half the country. Inflation will be the least of our worries if Trump is elected. Any disruption and disorder will just make it easier for him and his apparatchiks to justify extra- and un-constitutional measures.

        Collapse
        1. Avatar photo
          Rdpulfer

          I don't disagree with any of that. Any failure on Trump's policy will doubtlessly be blamed on "the libs and RINOs" and used to take more and more control.

          Collapse
  6. Avatar photo
    Earl King

    I listened to Mike DeWine speak about Ohio not falling for an Illinois Governor spending gobbs of money to allowing abortion up to birth.
    BS, voters want the option. All voters. Abortion politics have changed. It’s a loser for the gop

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      PaulH

      @Earl: I think the GOP has done a very poor job of pushing against the extreme Democratic abortions proposals. Only a small minority of people fully support these proposals, but they will vote for them if the other option is a ban or near ban on abortions -- as you say, they want some choice. If the GOP offered up 12 to 20 week limits (maybe 6 in a few states), they would be winning the issue.

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        Earl King

        They would indeed. However they are stupid. So there’s that

        Collapse
        1. Avatar photo
          PJ

          Praise Jesus!

          Collapse
    2. Avatar photo
      Angie

      Yeah, and I voted for him, he really disappointed me with the six week band and how he went to the dark side on some stuff..and that up to birth thing is frustrating, no sane woman goes through 9 months of pregnancy and then decides who wants an abortion, those are only to protect complications with the baby or danger for the mom.

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        Earl King

        6 weeks was really stupid. There is a medical reason for a 25 or 16 week ban. They feel
        Pain and they are becoming sentient.
        The idea most women know when they pregnant is BS. 6 weeks is a joke.

        Collapse
        1. Avatar photo
          Angie

          My roomies boss, believe or not, just found out she was pregnant...and she is 8 and half months along...lol...she is married with three kids, you think she would have known...lol...she said she thought she was just getting fat ( she is a very tiny woman)...she isn't contemplating not having the baby, but, just a point about knowing you are pregnant so early...

          Collapse
        2. BadgerBill

          My wife certainly didn’t know she was pregnant at 6 weeks. As you say, very common not to know.

          Collapse
          1. Avatar photo
            Earl King

            The idiocy of y party is simply stunning. Nobody wants to end a a life. But the difference between a mass of cells and a sentient being matters.

            Collapse
  7. Avatar photo
    Donald E. L. Johnson, Florida

    Tim Scott wrote a book about his long-time friendship and working relationship with Donald Trump.

    He is a Mike Pence and Donald Trump backing member of the Trump Party.

    Compared with Nikki Haley, he is Trump's stalking horse.

    Collapse
    1. Juliechristinedraughon

      Still hoping for that VP spot in Trump’s administration?
      Puhlease, dear God, let Biden withdraw and focus on helping Ukraine and Israel. And, Lord, if you’re willing, let truth and justice prevail against DJT and remove him from the race. Our country is sinking.

      Collapse
  8. Avatar photo
    2sequoia

    I admit, I don’t understand a poll that shows that 47 percent of respondents said “peace and stability would increase in the world” if Donald Trump is re-elected compared to 31 percent who said the same would be true if Biden were re-elected. I’m not saying that the poll doesn’t accurately capture this point in time, but really? The world would more likely to be at peace if Donald Trump were president?

    Collapse
    1. Acre00

      It's not that absurd a notion, really. The Trump years were some of the most peaceful of the past 23, and as soon as he's out we have a major war in Europe and the Middle East, with Asia heating up right behind.

      Is it a logical proposition? Maybe not. Russia probably would have invaded Ukraine either way if Trump pulled out of Afghanistan as Biden did. And with that, maybe everything would have unfolded as it has with Biden as president.

      But Presidents always get blamed for what happens on their watch, whether they are it is their fault or not. Trump gets credit for the peace under his watch, while Biden gets credit for the conflict under his watch

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        2sequoia

        The events in Ukraine & Israel would have happened regardless of who the American president was. It is ludicrous to think otherwise. What is important is how the American president reacts to these events and Biden has shown tremendous leadership on the world stage.

        Collapse
    2. Iblamethedrugs

      If that's the quality of questions asked, it's reasonable to wonder if the poll means anything at all.

      Collapse
    3. Avatar photo
      Donald E. L. Johnson, Florida

      The assumption is that enemies would be less likely to test the volatile Trump than the appeasement oriented Biden. They probably are correct.

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        2sequoia

        The events in Ukraine & Israel would have happened regardless of who was the American president. I feel much safer today with Biden as president than I would with Trump.

        Collapse
  9. The Pragmatic Conservative

    That NY Times poll is interesting in that Trump is up in all the states EXCEPT the one that's probably the biggest toss up: Wisconsin. Also he's up 11 points in Nevada, a state that's almost as swingy as Wisconsin? Meanwhile, Democratic Senate incumbents are largely holding their own against Republican challenges in other polls. Somehow it seems unlikely that there will be a large chunk of voters who support both Trump and Baldwin, Brown, Casey, Gallego, Slotkin, etc. Perhaps NYT accidentally got a disproportionate response from MAGA world in this poll?

    Collapse
  10. Avatar photo
    JohnM.

    The only strategy memo that Tim Scott needs presently is the one that says, 'Drop out'.

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      Paul Britton

      I wish he were the front-runner, but he isn’t and it’s not going to happen.

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        JohnM.

        Yeah, so do I.

        Collapse
Load More