Political Turmoil in Pakistan

Happy Friday! Best of luck to the newest team in the Australian Football League, which is trying to name itself after an animal native to its home but bumping up against a Looney Tunes-shaped copyright lawsuit.

“It’s our animal, and we’ll use it if we want,” said Jeremy Rockliff, premier of Tasmania.

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

• The Biden administration replaced the expired Title 42 immigration policy with new immigration rules Wednesday tightening asylum restrictions and adding legal consequences for crossing without permission. Migrants caught illegally crossing the border will be deported and barred from re-entry for a minimum of five years, and migrants seeking entry will now be denied asylum unless they have first applied online or have sought and were denied protection in a country they traveled through to reach the United States. The administration also plans to open 100 regional migrant processing centers in South and Central American countries. 
• Ukrainian and Russian commanders confirmed Ukrainian troops on Wednesday drove Russian forces back from some positions surrounding the eastern city of Bakhmut. Yevgeny Prigozhin—leader of the Russian Wagner Group mercenaries—declared the attacks the beginning of Ukraine’s much-anticipated spring counteroffensive, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated the country’s armed forces need more time to prepare.
• President Joe Biden and congressional leaders—Reps. Kevin McCarthy and Hakeem Jeffries and Sens. Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell—postponed a second debt ceiling negotiation meeting from today to sometime next week. The delay will give the leaders’ staff more time to work out areas of agreement.
• The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation announced Thursday it plans to charge the country’s top banks $15.8 billion in additional fees over the next two years to replenish the deposit insurance fund after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. How much each lender pays will be determined by a “special assessment” of which banks benefited the most from the coverage of uninsured depositors. 
• The Environmental Protection Agency proposed a new rule Thursday that would require fossil fuel power plants to cut their emissions by 90 percent between 2035 and 2040, or shut down. The EPA is advising plants that don’t plan to shut down to invest in carbon capture technology—a method of storing emissions underground to prevent them from hitting the atmosphere—but the technology’s efficacy is contested and none of the country’s coal- and gas-fired power plants currently use it.
• Former President Donald Trump formally filed an appeal on Thursday of a jury’s recent decision to hold him liable for the sexual abuse and defamation of writer E. Jean Carroll and award her $5 million in damages. The former president decried the verdict at a CNN town hall event Wednesday night, saying Carroll’s account of his attack was “a fake story”—potentially opening himself up to another defamation suit.
• The FBI arrested a U.S. citizen in Boston on Tuesday for allegedly spying for the Chinese Communist Party. Federal prosecutors charged Li Tan Liang with conspiracy and acting as an agent of a foreign government, alleging Liang has been working to suppress Chinese dissidents in the U.S. since 2018. 
• Peloton announced Thursday that—in cooperation with the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission—it is initiating a voluntary recall of more than 2 million exercise bikes manufactured between 2018 and 2023 due to safety concerns with the bikes’ seat posts. Over the last five years, Peloton has received 35 reports of seats detaching mid-cycle resulting in 12 injuries. The company will offer customers a free new seat post. 
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday the producer price index (PPI)—a measure of what suppliers and wholesalers are charging customers—rose 0.2 percent month-over-month in April after falling 0.3 percent in March. Producer prices were up 2.3 percent year-over-year in April, down from 2.7 percent in March and the lowest year-over-year rate since January 2021.
• The Department of Labor reported Thursday that initial jobless claims—a proxy for layoffs—increased by 22,000 week-over-week to a seasonally-adjusted 264,000 claims last week, the highest level since 2021, adding to the growing number of signs the hot labor market is continuing to cool.

Unrest in Pakistan

If you’re a Pakistani political leader, what’s the difference between being under arrest in a police facility under armed guard and being a guest in a police facility under armed protection? 

Easy: a few days of riots and a Supreme Court declaration.

Already reeling from an ongoing economic crisis and fallout from flooding and terrorist attacks, Pakistanis took to the streets this week after the country’s military arrested populist former prime minister Imran Khan. The Supreme Court order officially undoing his arrest—improperly conducted in a courthouse—may have eased immediate tensions, but instability remains, exacerbated by the looming risk of default on sovereign debts.

A nation of 230 million, Pakistan has been plagued by political tumult since it gained independence in 1947. No prime minister has ever completed a full five-year term under the 1973 constitution, and military coups have played a recurring role in national politics. Khan, a charismatic former cricket star who rode a wave of populist and anti-corruption sentiment into office, was no exception—a no-confidence vote in April 2022 ended his tenure after four years amid accusations of economic mismanagement and inconsistent foreign policy, pushing Pakistan in fits and starts away from the West. Parliament replaced Khan with opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif, former administrator of populous Punjab and younger brother of a previous prime minister disqualified from office on corruption charges. 

Khan’s popularity has rebounded since his ouster as Pakistan’s economic woes have worsened—and he’s also racked up more than 100 criminal charges, many corruption-related. Evidence supporting many of the accusations has yet to work its way through the courts, but the sheer volume of charges is likely at least somewhat motivated by the military and current government’s desire to permanently disqualify Khan from holding office, as has happened to some previous prime ministers.

Khan had previously avoided arrest through a combination of legal maneuvers and hordes of supporters camped outside his residence serving as a bulwark against law enforcement. But during a court appearance Tuesday, members of the Punjab Rangers—a paramilitary group—smashed into an Islamabad courtroom and placed him under arrest. “They took me like I was a terrorist,” Khan, who alleges members of the group beat him during the fracas, told the Supreme Court Thursday. “We were in a state of shock.”

This escalation may have been triggered by Khan’s decision in recent days to accuse a specific security official of being behind a shooting last year, which the former prime minister has claimed was a government and military-backed assassination attempt (a bullet injured Khan’s leg). “I think the military felt that the red line has been breached,” said Baqir Syed, a diplomatic and national security correspondent for Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper and fellow at the Wilson Center. “They needed to stop him from criticizing the military publicly and naming their officers, so they decided to arrest him.” In a May 8 statement, the military accused Khan of making “fabricated and malicious allegations” and said it “reserves the right to take legal course of action against patently false and malafide statements and propaganda.”

Whatever the motive, Khan’s supporters blamed the military for orchestrating the arrest—and hit the streets. Some wielded rocks, assault rifles, and Molotov cocktails, setting police vehicles and ambulances ablaze. A few hundred stormed a military commander’s house in the city of Lahore, breaking windows and lighting furniture on fire. “There have been instances when the public has resented the military or military rulers,” in the past, said Shuja Nawaz, a political analyst and distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council. “But to attack military installations and houses of military commanders is unheard of.”

In response, police fired tear gas and rubber bullets at protestors and opened fire in Quetta, and at least eight protesters have died. In an effort to slow the spread of rumors—and videos of bloodied protesters—the government also cut mobile internet service across the country and throttled access to Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter. Law enforcement has arrested hundreds of people—including members of Khan’s political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf—on charges of intimidation, rioting, and assault on government officials.

On Thursday, the country’s Supreme Court overturned a lower court’s ruling that had upheld Khan’s arrest. The decision didn’t question the validity of the warrant, but faulted officials for arresting him in a courthouse, reasoning citizens must be able to attend court hearings without fear. The chief justice ordered Khan’s return to the same facility where he’d previously been held. Khan is still under guard, but this time “for his protection”—and he’s allowed 10 visitors of his choice. Government officials have blasted the court’s ruling, and Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah told a television station Khan will be arrested again.

The legal technicalities may quell the immediate crisis, but won’t solve the underlying economic troubles fueling many Pakistanis’ frustrations. Floods last fall decimated agricultural regions, causing an estimated $40 billion in damages, while the war in Ukraine depressed world grain supplies, exacerbating Pakistan’s already high inflation. In April, the rate of price increases hit a record 36 percent year-over-year, while the cost of food climbed 4 percent month-over-month. More than 20 people died in stampedes to get food during Ramadan, and police in some major cities regularly fire tear gas to disperse crowds trying to obtain flour at distribution points. Terrorist attacks have also spiked in recent months—a January suicide bombing at a mosque killed more than 100 people—contributing to overall fears of disintegrating public order.

Pakistan has imported more food to make up for its shortfall, which has tapped already depleted foreign currency reserves. It now has about $4 billion, less than it needs for a single month of imports. A $6.5 billion deal with the International Monetary Fund struck in 2019 could help the country avoid defaulting on its debts—which topped 80 percent of its gross domestic product in 2022—but the plan has been derailed by the government’s struggles to raise taxes and cut subsidies on food, gas, and utilities. The IMF reportedly said Thursday Pakistan’s government had committed to dropping a proposed fuel subsidy and taking other steps that could unlock a delayed $1.1 billion disbursement—but the recent political instability could make IMF officials more cautious about negotiating with Islamabad.

U.S. officials have long fretted that Pakistan—a strategically located and nuclear-armed country—would seek China’s aid for its ills. Indeed, Pakistani officials grasping for ways to pay debts and keep food and fuel flowing have in recent days weighed buying Russian fuel with Chinese currency instead of U.S. dollars. Chinese diplomats have also participated in recent anti-terrorism discussions with Pakistan and neighboring Afghanistan. But the White House shouldn’t consider Pakistan a lost cause, Nawaz argued. “There are people in Pakistan—and also particularly in the military—who do not want the U.S. relationship to go astray,” he said. “They prefer U.S. training. They prefer U.S. equipment.” He argued U.S. leaders should emphasize they won’t work with a coalition that takes power by subverting Pakistan’s constitution—but noted U.S. officials can’t sort out the crisis for Pakistani leaders.

Syed agreed, but didn’t see a clear path to resolution. “How do we move forward from here? How is the government or the military going to pacify the people?” he asked. “The scars from the events of the past three days will continue to haunt Pakistan for a long time to come.”

A Monumental Election in Turkey

Millions of Turkish voters will go to the polls on Sunday and decide whether or not to extend President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rule over the country. The Dispatch’s Charlotte Lawson is in Istanbul, and has a piece up on the site this morning looking at the key issues in the race—and what’s at stake.

Erdoğan’s rivals are banking on Turkey’s economic disrepair, corruption, and authoritarian lurch to win over supporters, while the incumbent is fanning old grievances—including against the United States and its allies—to hold onto power.

“We need to teach America a lesson,” Erdoğan said recently, calling on his base to vote by doubling down on a claim that the United States is backing his rival, People’s Party (CHP) head Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

Turkish Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu took the accusations of American meddling a step further during a campaign event last month, charging the West with plotting to overthrow Erdoğan via the election. “July 15 was their actual coup attempt,” Soylu said in reference to Turkey’s failed military putsch in July 2016, which he and other government officials have baselessly blamed on the U.S. “And May 14 is their political coup attempt. It is a coup attempt that can be formed by bringing together all preparations to eliminate Turkey.”

Kılıçdaroğlu has taken a different campaign approach.

At an Istanbul rally on Saturday, the 74-year-old bespectacled former bureaucrat, not mentioning Erdoğan by name or sowing conspiratorial thinking, focused on the realities of Turkish suffering under the current system. 

“We are all thirsty for justice, we all want justice. Justice doesn’t just happen in courtrooms. If a child goes to bed hungry, 85 million people are hungry. If a child sleeps in the cold, it means 85 million are in the cold. All of Turkey’s problems can be solved. I have no interest in the palace. I live like you. I have a modest life like you,” Kılıçdaroğlu said, casting himself as the Everyman in contrast to Erdoğan and his billion-dollar presidential complex. 

“Bread-and-butter issues are important,” said Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, pointing to the cost-of-living crisis facing Turkey. The opposition has “made a very persuasive argument that the one-man regime, essentially, is a recipe for economic disaster,” she added. “It’s a dysfunctional, unhealthy way of running a state.”

In the midst of its most consequential presidential race in decades, tensions are already starting to boil over across Turkey, sparking fears about what Election Day may look like.

During a campaign event in the eastern city of Erzurum on Sunday, AKP supporters hurled rocks at the bus of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu, Kılıçdaroğlu’s vice presidential candidate. Kılıçdaroğlu in response urged his supporters to stay calm in the lead-up to the vote, and refrain from celebrating publicly if the opposition wins. “They can throw stones at us, but we’ll respond with roses,” Imamoğlu said Monday. “The agitators will learn their lesson from the nation at the ballot box first, then they will be tried in independent courts for their wrongdoings.”

In the event that neither Erdoğan nor Kılıçdaroğlu win the 50-percent-plus-one vote necessary to win outright on Sunday, the presidential race will go to a runoff on May 28. A May survey from the Ankara-based Metropoll put Kılıçdaroğlu in the lead at 49.1 percent to Erdoğan’s 46.9 percent after undecided voters were proportionally distributed among the candidates. And the last-minute dropout of splinter candidate Muharrem İnce on Thursday makes Kılıçdaroğlu’s odds of winning in the first round even greater, Metropoll chief Ozer Sencar told The Dispatch.

Worth Your Time

• After more than 20 years as a prosecutor in Cook County, Illinois—which contains Chicago—Jason Poje decided he couldn’t continue. RealClearWire published an email he circulated to his colleagues last week. “There is not a single day that has gone by that I have not felt truly honored to work with such an incredible group of people who spent every waking hour on behalf of victims,” he wrote. “And yet, I’m leaving. Why could that be? The simple fact is that this State and County have set themselves on a course to disaster. And the worst part is that the agency for whom I work has backed literally every policy change that had the predictable, and predicted, outcome of more crime and more people getting hurt. Bond reform designed to make sure no one stays in jail while their cases are pending with no safety net to handle more criminals on the streets, shorter parole periods, lower sentences for repeat offenders, the malicious and unnecessary prosecution of law enforcement officers, overuse of diversion programs, intentionally not pursuing prosecutions for crimes lawfully on the books after being passed by our legislature and signed by a governor, all of these so-called reforms have had a direct negative impact, with consequences that will last for a generation.”
• The Atlantic shared some of the winners and shortlisted images in the Close-Up Photographer of the Year photography contest. This year’s theme was “minimal” but the results are anything but—our personal favorites are the sawfly larva grasping a stalk and the close up of a small jumping spider.

Presented Without Comment 

New York Times: E. Jean Carroll May Sue Trump a Third Time After ‘Vile’ Comments on CNN

Also Presented Without Comment 

The Hill: “Rep. George Santos on Thursday voted for a bill that seeks to crack down on unemployment benefits fraud—the same crime he was charged with one day earlier.”

Also Also Presented Without Comment 

The Washington Free Beacon: [California Gov. Gavin] Newsom Spent 2 Years and $2.5M of Taxpayer Money on Reparations Plan Before Balking

Toeing the Company Line

• In the newsletters: Nick looks at who won Wednesday night’s CNN town hall with Donald Trump—and who lost.
• On the podcasts: Sarah, Steve, and Jonah discuss all things 2024 and the Biden family’s international dealings, while Sarah and Steve check in on (🔒) their bet after a tumultuous week for the Republican frontrunner.
• On the site: Harvest reports on the House GOP’s freshly passed immigration bill and Price walks through the Biden family investigations.

Let Us Know

Pakistan has long been a challenging ally—and arguably a some-time adversary. What role should the U.S. play in seeking stability in the country? And how much does Pakistan’s status as a nuclear power factor in your answer?