The Sweep: Democrats Take the Senate, but For How Long?

Plus, a look ahead to the 2022 Senate map.

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Welcome to 2021—an election year for some states and a short break for Georgians who will be back at it in no time, hearing ads about their newly elected senator, Raphael Warnock, who is back up in 2022. 

Campaign Quick Hits

Least shocking statistic you will read today: Nine of the top 10 highest-spending advertising Senate races were in the 2020 election cycle and more money was spent on advertising in the Perdue/Ossoff race than any Senate race in our nation’s history at $253 million. 

Yes, Virginia, there is a governor’s race: Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe announced that his 2021 Virginia gubernatorial campaign had raised $6.1 million in 2020, ending the year with $5.5 million cash on hand. He was already the odds-on favorite to win the primary—and the general election for that matter—but his fundraising prowess continues to astound. In 2017, Ralph Northam won the Democratic primary with a total of $6.4 million. By this point, he had raised only $3 million and had $2.2 million on hand.  And the only person ever to have outraised Northam in the history of Virginia elections? Why, yes, it was Terry McAuliffe in 2013. 

New man on the Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota’s Democratic Gov. Tim Walz is watching his 2022 back in a state that may or may not be creeping redder. Minnesotans last elected a Republican governor—Tim Pawlenty—in 2006. But in 2016, Trump lost the state by only 1.5 percent (although he lost it by just over 7 points in 2020). The more interesting question for now will be which way Republicans decide to go. President Trump’s personal friend, MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, told the Minneapolis Star Tribune he is 90 percent to 95 percent likely to run for governor next year. Lindell said that he has spent “more than $1 million of his own money” to uncover evidence that Donald Trump won the 2020 election “and that he has been working closely with former Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn on probing allegations of election fraud.” There are plenty of other candidates, though, both from the usual ranks of elected officials and at least a couple Minnesota Vikings: Matt Birk and Chad Greenway.

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  1. Very Old Grumpy Guy

    Interesting and well reasoned as always!

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  2. Very Old Grumpy Guy

    Sarah - I did not read this before yesterday's insurrection. Should I bother, or will you make revisions?

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      Sarah Isgur vertical-nib Author

      This is a campaign focused newsletter so the focus is on the results in Georgia and the 2022 senate map.

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      1. Very Old Grumpy Guy

        Thank you!

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    Paul Britton

    Solid stuff, thanks.

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    Pat Riot

    Exactly as I predicted, Trump never cared about the outcome of the election per se, and he had this to say about their loss:

    "The president was telling people today that he was happy Loeffler and Perdue lost, according to a person familiar with the conversations. He said they didn't defend him enough."


    https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1347042668564664320

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      2sequoia

      He is one sick man.

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    John Robert

    Trump bears full responsibility for today's riots.

    ITMFA!

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    Another Aaron

    I'm going to need a day or so to get the images from today out of my mind before "The Democrats take the Senate" makes any sense.

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    Merrijane

    Thanks Sarah. It was delightful to read this on an otherwise crazy, crazy day. I appreciate you.

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    Victor Clairmont

    Sarah, The Dispatch will have to rewrite all its predictions I believe.

    Since the protests in Washington DC, on Jan. 6th, has turned into a riot and the storming of the capital.

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    Dave Conant - MO

    Suppose, for the sake of argument, that a sitting President of the United States incited a riot for the purpose of invalidating the results of a popular vote, an Electoral College vote and numerous court decisions at all levels and said riot resulted in a breach of the Capitol building which endangered, among others, the members of Congress then in session and the Vice President of the United States as presiding officer.
    Is that not a clear violation of his oath of office to preserve, protect, etc. as well as a presumptive violation of any number of Washington, DC criminal statutes and, if so, does he need to be impeached and convicted in order to be removed or does the violation invalidate both his oath and his presence in office thereby making the Vice President in fact the President?
    Not that this would ever happen, just curious in light of recent rhetorical comments.
    Great newsletter Sarah and interesting observations on the coming election cycle which starts at what, about 12:03PM on Jan. 21?

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  10. SPliskin

    It is my understanding that over 40,000 military and overseas ballots were mailed out Only 4000 of the 28000 military ballots have come back so far and 6000 of the 12000 overseas ballots have come back so far. Isn't a little early to be calling this?

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