The Sweep: Mommy, How Are Candidates Made?

Before the horse race starts, you need your horses.

By and
35

Campaign Quick Hits

Actions Have Consequences: According to the Associated Press, “nearly 5,000 Arizona voters dropped their GOP voter registration in nine days after the Capitol attack.” And in the days following January 6, 4,600 voters dropped off the Republican rolls in Colorado, 6,000 in North Carolina, and 10,000 in Pennsylvania. NPR, who reported the data, noted that this was specific to the GOP: “there was no comparable effect with any other party.” This isn’t just bad news for Republicans on the ballot in 2022—it’s bad news for the future of the party, because it may signal that more moderate Republican voters have simply given up on fighting against the fringes over the direction of the party. 

It’s Gerrymandering with a ‘Guh’: The Census Bureau announced that it wouldn’t be able to determine how many congressional seats each state gets for the next ten years until April 30, due to a lack of data. That’s a problem. Ally Mutnick at Politico summed up the ensuing chaos nicely: “43 states with more than one district must redraw 428 seats as quickly as possible before the 2022 primaries. But they can’t begin until they know the population size per seat, numbers that should have been available by Dec. 31.” And that means neither party can be quite sure which seats will be their “top tier” pick-up seats and where they need to recruit candidates—our main topic for this week’s newsletter! But not to worry, there will still be endless litigation over the lines that will drag out for years—the Supreme Court was still deciding cases from the 2010 census lines as recently as 2017.

Rubio Gets A Walk: Speaking of candidate recruitment, Democrats don’t seem to have any takers to challenge Sen. Marco Rubio in 2022, potentially saving Republicans more than $100 million if they don’t have to seriously defend the seat with the Senate majority on the line. Marc Caputo, the most well-sourced guy in Florida politics in my opinion, reported last week that “President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer are trying to recruit one of two Orlando-area congresswomen—Val Demings, who was on Biden’s vice-presidential shortlist, and Stephanie Murphy—to challenge Rubio, but so far they’ve been noncommittal.” So far, Caputo said, other potential candidates are more keen to run against Ron DeSantis for governor. Why is governor—another wildly expensive statewide race—viewed as easier? It’s all about Miami-Dade County, where Democrats have to run up their vote to stand a chance of winning statewide. “Once a Republican starts taking a chunk of the Hispanic vote, they’re almost unbeatable. And with Marco being from Miami-Dade County, it’s just really difficult to get there,” a state Democratic operative told Caputo. 

Ticket Splitting from 2020: Echelon Insights released some great data on voters who either voted for Donald Trump and a Democratic senate candidate or Joe Biden and a Republican senate candidate. Not surprisingly, Republican candidates overperformed Donald Trump by a 1.4 point margin. But that includes folks like Susan Collins, who ran 17.7 points ahead of Trump in Maine and Ben Sasse, who ran 17.3 points ahead of Trump in Nebraska. Overall, Echelon noted that “Republican Senate candidate overperformance happened most consistently in suburban and urban areas across the country,” while Trump overperformance “tended to happen in rural areas.” What that often meant was that the raw numbers for the Senate and presidential votes looked similar, but actually there was “significant split-ticket voting running in both directions, tied to the education gap.”

Keep reading with a free account
Create a free Dispatch account to keep reading Get Started ALREADY HAVE AN ACCOUNT? SIGN IN
35
By and
Comments (35)
Join The Dispatch to participate in the comments.
 
  1. Matt Wavro

    Sorry to disagree, but the Republican Party of Virginia has zero ability to filter out fringe candidates in a convention. The only filter mechanism is a filing fee and a statement that you are in accord with the principles of the Republican Party. A primary at least brings public scrutiny of the fringe and provides some much needed sunlight on the party's public-facing strategy for the fall.

    Additionally, conventions in Virginia has been the mechanism for fringe candidates to gain access to the party ticket for the general election. The best example of this is the 2013 Lieutenant Governor race at the convention.

    Corey Stewart had secured a federated bloc of Tea Party Activists from across the state that had all agreed to vote for him on every ballot regardless of any speeches or new information uncovered in the run up to the convention. This kept Corey alive through, and this is from memory, 4 rounds of voting before he was eliminated. In the chaos, E.W. Jackson secured the Lt. Governor nomination and his views on Yoga as evil and that elected officials should use their office to convert gay people into straight people basically sunk most paths to a Republican victory that year and started the long slide to Democratic control of the legislature.

    I really appreciate The Dispatch and Advisory Opinions, but I have to disagree on this point.
    Thanks,
    Matt Wavro
    Purdue Political Science Class of 2002
    Fmr. Arlington GOP Chairman

    Collapse
  2. Avatar photo
    Rick Henderson

    "the Supreme Court was still deciding cases from the 2010 census lines as recently as 2017"

    You're welcome. Sincerely, North Carolina

    Collapse
  3. Avatar photo
    Not Jonah Goldberg

    Allow me to say that I’m very glad this newsletter is continuing after the election since it has become one of my favorites.
    As someone who has thought of running for politics in the Trumpiest state in the country, I like all the different things you dive into.

    Collapse
  4. Danny Grizzle

    Any chance any of this actually leads to a legitimate third party? Or just more primary challenges?

    Collapse
  5. Avatar photo
    Synchronize Your Dogmas (Bill B)

    "You talked about having the research and showing folks that there’s a path to win the seat, but then you’ve also said you just have to recruit everywhere for every seat. But in some of those districts, the research is going to show that there really is not going to be a path. How do you convince folks that it's worth a year of their life to do that?"

    Why even bother? If Democrats have a Trump Republican and a sane one runnning for the district with no hope of a Democrat competing back the sane Republican and save some money, time and energy... and perhaps the country. Is that a real option?

    Collapse
  6. Avatar photo
    Gz Expat

    11,000 Oregonians have left the party since the election. I'm one of them...did it last week. And, yeah, I'm done with fighting. Candidates that are put on the ballot, be it primary or general, are all super embarassing. I've left more ballots blank that I care to count.
    Oregon isn't that big of a state and the GOP is even smaller at that...so to see this high of a number of defectors warms my heart, actually.
    https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/02/more-than-11000-oregonians-have-left-the-republican-party-since-election-day.html

    Collapse
  7. Avatar photo
    JR

    From the article: "On the flip side, it’s worth noting that nominating conventions have the added benefit of allowing state Republican parties to filter out fringe candidates who often pose major challenges to establishment candidates in the polls."

    I may have a counterexample here, from the Democratic Party side. In Minnesota, the pattern for a while (at least three cycles) is for the party convention endorses an ideological extremist but the less extreme candidate to skip the convention and win the nomination at a primary election. And much more often than not (perhaps: always), that candidate wins the general.

    And think about this: You've got to be very motivated to politics to put in the time required to attend a nominating convention (which, in Minnesota, is the third event in a three-step process. Given the flight of sensible people from the GOP (see: Flake, Corker, Amash, Portman), I'm afraid that if the Republicans depended on nominating conventions even more than they do now, the result would be "teh crazees" take over even sooner.

    Collapse
    1. Marc Whipple

      I agree. With the GOP, the call from crazy is coming from inside the house.

      Collapse
  8. Erin

    "Why is governor—another wildly expensive statewide race—viewed as easier? It’s all about Miami-Dade County, where Democrats have to run up their vote to stand a chance of winning statewide."

    I don't get it. If they're both statewide races, why would Miami-Dade have a different impact on one race VS the other?

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      Marty

      Rubio is a native of Miami-Dade, and the Cuban community down there loves him. So the Orlando area congresswomen they're trying to recruit would have a tough time beating him. I don't know what part of Florida Ron DeSantis is from, but obviously it's not Miami-Dade.

      Collapse
      1. FloridaMan21

        DeSantis is from Pinellas County originally in the Tampa Bay area and now lives in Ponte Vedra in the Jax area. Rubio always outperforms in Dade County which makes him almost impossible to beat. He also overperforms in Hillsborough, Osceola, and Orange with significant Hispanic populations. In 2016, when Trump won by 1%, Rubio won by 8% statewide. In Dade, Hillary got 62% of the vote in 2016. The Democrat, Murphy, only received 54%. Rubio is also generally popular enough with suburban voters in Florida. In Jax, Rubio outperformed Trump by 7% as well. This was all against a well-liked moderate Congressman. Demings would be formidable though if she can get a Gillum type turnout mixed with the advantage of being a female on the ballot and she might but it would be an uphill battle. There is also a potential Rubio has lost some good will with suburban voters but he tries to constantly walk the line of keeping Trumpy voters while maintaining more traditional conservatives/moderates who lean right.

        Collapse
        1. Avatar photo
          Marty

          Thanks for the educated reply. Much appreciated.

          Collapse
    2. Avatar photocircle-angle-nib
      Sarah Isgur vertical-nib Author

      Because DeSantis isn’t a bilingual Cuban candidate like Rubio!

      Collapse
  9. Ell

    Like the quick hits better than the long interviews and discussions. Best sweep so far.

    Collapse
  10. Avatar photo
    Kevin Durant?

    “Mommy, how are candidates made?”

    “There’s a stork named QAnon Go play in your room.”

    *pours wine

    Collapse
    1. Scott N.

      I regret I have only one like to give this.

      Collapse
Load More