The Sweep: Of Polling and Primaries

Parsing the polling on how many Republicans actually believe Trump could be reinstated, and what we should expect in New York's mayoral race next week.

By and
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Campaign Quick Hits

Losers’ Table: Great data reporting from FiveThirtyEight here as former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke and current Florida Rep. Charlie Crist try once again to get elected to higher office. They’ve both lost twice, and this time isn’t looking particularly charmed either. 

We looked at candidates who’ve run for U.S. Senate, governor or president after they lost just one election and then tried to run again and found that since 1998, only 33 of 121 of them have managed to win higher office after having lost once. Losses transcended political parties, too, with 53 Democrats and 36 Republicans failing in their second attempt … But after two failed bids, the numbers get even worse. 4 Just 20 people have run for U.S. senator, governor or president after losing two consecutive elections. And only one, Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy, who won a 2016 runoff race after losing two previous Senate races, was successful … In other words, history doesn’t bode well for O’Rourke and Crist.

Worth Your Time: Audrey went to Arizona and what she found was—well—different. Here’s her write up of the “forensic audit contesting the victories of Joe Biden and Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly” that is currently underway. They’re nearly through all the ballots, but even the auditors don’t seem to know what their plan is after this—even if they do claim to find evidence of widespread fraud. 

As Randy Pullen, former chairman of the Arizona Republican Party and treasurer of the Republican National Committee and current Maricopa County audit liaison, told Audrey, “If it turns out that, you know, we find 12,000 ballots that were somehow changed, one way or another—and I’m not saying we will—which means that could result in a change in the result of the election, you know, that’s, I have no idea. I’m not a lawyer. Whether they can go to court and overturn the election in the state—I don’t know.”

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Comments (17)
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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    Insightful and very interesting! I learned a lot. Thanks, Sarah.

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    Kurt

    Excellent piece. I’ve not read anything so rational in weeks. This should be in a book you ought to write.

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  3. Ricardo

    Not to mention, the greatest polling miss in modern times, 2016 presidential.

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    Phil H

    re: "reinstatement" poll: An old IT saying applies here: GIGO (garbage in, garbage out)

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    1. Tom (Inadvertent Obfuscation)

      In the early days of computers, there was a small convention in a hotel in Yugoslavia. A Brit was discussing the GIGO concept but preferred the word "trash", so wrote "TITO".
      My prof (1980's) did not say if President Josip Broz Tito had any response.

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    Aylene Wright

    Also regarding polls; I saw some (hopefully vaccinated) conservatives pulling their hair out at a recent Gallup poll showing that 69% of respondents including 90% of fully vaccinated ones, had worn a mark in the last 7 days, ranting about how brainwashed the poor liberal fools were, to keep masking even after they were vaccinated.

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/350666/americans-getting-cautiously.aspx

    But AFAIK the question was merely whether the person had worn a mask at ANY point in the last 7 days, not "do you wear a mask EVERY time you go out". So if someone had visited the doctor, gone to a store that still required masks, been on a bus or train that still required masks, visited someone in the hospital or a nursing home, etc., they would have answered "yes".

    Not surprisingly the "do not plan yo get vaccinated" were the least likely to wear a mask at 49%, because there's an overlap between vaccine and mask skeptics. They likely only masked if they were required to.

    There's also this assumption in many conservative circles that masking is obviously an extremely burdensome sacrifice to make, to the point that wearing one when fully vaxxed is an irrational act. The problem with this framing is that most people who regularly mask don't see masking as that kind of costly burden that makes their quality of life horrible and can only be justified for a true life / death Emergency. They see it as a low cost measure that is worth continuing even when the benefit is marginal.

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    1. Avatar photo
      John A Johnson

      I agree with your overall tenor, but the fact is, mask-wearing when fully vaccinated has no scientifically supported purpose (re: COVID-19), and just as there was at least a questionable (I bought it) argument for wearing a mask to protect others in the event one were an asymptomatic carrier, that does not hold for those who are fully vaccinated. The "well there is a small chance" crew should never venture forth from their homes, for there is a small chance of lightning, a falling tree branch, tripping over a child's toy . . .

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      George.Skinner

      A lot of the vaccine and mask skeptics also deny that COVID is actually a real health risk. I always found wearing a mask to be a fairly minimal burden, although I'll concede that I don't need to wear glasses. However, it's amazing how often people who really should know better will shirk personal protective equipment. Steel toed boots: you frequently hear arguments that they're not safe if you drop a heavy piece of steel on your foot because they'll amputate your toes. Reality? Anything that'd crush the steel toe will easily smash your toes into pulp. Fall protection gear when roofing: it's uncomfortable to wear the harness and it gets in the way. What's less comfortable and more impeding to mobility: smashing your pelvis or breaking your back when you slip and fall. Safety glasses: they fog up and I can't see well. You could fix this with better glasses or anti-fog wipes, or perhaps deal with not seeing well ever when your eye is damaged due to lack of protection. Man, the number of maimed farmers I saw as a kid because they didn't want to waste time turning off a piece of machinery when clearing a clog...

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        Dave

        I work in the petrochemicals industry, and the change in safety culture has been nothing short of amazing over the past 25 years (in a good way). There's not even a question about wearing the proper PPE, and contractors are actually encouraged to stop work if they see something unsafe going on.

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      2. Greyjoy

        I’m glad you mentioned glasses. Masking while wearing glasses has been quite a challenge. The constant fogging has had the unintended consequence of cutting down on my grocery shopping bill because *I can’t see* and generally have to remove my glasses and peer at what I’m considering buying from 10 inches away, often while stooping. I’m sure fellow shoppers are amused by the sight, but I can’t tell through the fog and their masks. Then, when I exit the store and remove my mask, about 1 in 10 times the straps are entangled with the glasses temples, and I end up ripping my glasses off my face at the same time and more than once have launched them onto the parking lot pavement lenses down. So I was stoked after I was fully vaccinated and stores finally lifted their mask requirements.

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    3. Seth

      Yes, I share your attitude on this. I've been fully vaccinated for about a month now, but have continued to wear a mask in places of business that have signs requesting them. I don't see much practical need, but think of it as an act of social courtesy and respect. No different than taking my shoes off in a hosts house who requests it, even if they're sparkling clean shoes.

      Since the new CDC recommendations on relaxing masking, and our state formally dropping all capacity restrictions and mask requirements (except for public transit, healthcare, and a few other settings), I've seen most local business remove their requirements as well, and have enjoyed the comfort of being out and not wearing a mask. I still keep one with me in case I encounter situations where it's requested, though.

      Today was also the first day I noticed my gym dropped their requirement, now displaying only a sign that repeats the public health guidance that unvaccinated individuals should still be masked. One guy in the weight room was wearing one, which was actually kind of surprising.

      All they hysteria about masks being the first tool for social control (remember all the memes with sheep wearing masks, lol) always seemed silly to me, and I hope it does to everyone else now too.

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    2sequoia

    Really well done, Sarah and Chris. Very informative.

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    Walt Hilker

    I wonder if the phrase, "if at all," at the end of the Politico/Morning Consult question (“How likely do you think it is that former President Donald Trump will be reinstated as U.S. President this year, if at all?”) invites misinterpretation. To truly get at the perceived likelihood of Trump being reinstated this year, does that phrase add anything other than confusion? Might it not inflate the "likely" numbers?

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      Stephanie Hanaway

      Absolutely! I thought the exact same thing.

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    2. Brett C

      Yeah, the logically correct way to read the sentence is: Assume Trump WILL BE reinstated. Now, how likely is it that it will happen this year vs how likely do you think it will happen after this year?

      I think if it would happen at all it would be within a year. But I think there is about a 0% chance it would actually happen at all.

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    Michael Edesess

    When I taught statistics, partly but not entirely as a joke, I said that the only required text was "How to Lie With Statistics". Your example of how polls can lie (depending on how you interpret them) ought to be in the next edition of that book.

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    DougAz

    Randy Pullen, former chairman of the Arizona Republican Party and treasurer of the Republican National Committee and current Maricopa County audit liaison..

    Mr. Pullen is pretty much anti democracy and working to kill it.

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