The Sweep: The GOP 2024 Primary Primer, Part Three

The three presidential hopefuls coming out of the last guy's administration.

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And we’re back with more 2024 contenders! If you’re looking for some extra content, Chris and I talked to Chris Christie this week on the pod, who provided some of his own insights into how he sees the race shaping up. 

This week we are looking at some of the folks who served in the Trump Administration and are considering a 2024 run to replace their old boss. It’s actually pretty unusual on the Republican side—Lamar Alexander in 1996 was the last cabinet secretary to run by my count. 

The Formers

Nikki Haley: The Weather Vane 

49 years old, former UN Ambassador

Nikki Haley’s presidential ambitions have been clear for some time, and she has the resumé to prove it. An accountant by trade, Haley has legislative experience from three terms in the South Carolina House of Representatives, executive experience from six years as governor, and foreign policy experience from nearly two years as ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump administration.

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  1. CWB3

    No, no, no. . .for these 3. I liked Pence prior to 2016. Will forever be grateful that in the end he did the right thing. But those years trying to shine up and perhaps reign in Trump behind the scenes. . .those are hard to get past.

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    Justin Stapley

    The question I have going into 2024 is if we can find one of these candidates willing to fill a lane that peels off the more reasonable Trump voters while bringing back the suburbanites in a way that can both produce a winning coalition and dismiss the alt-right cranks to the margins.

    I'm humble enough to recognize that a candidate that can do this isn't going to be a candidate I would personally prefer. Barring any extremely disruptive events, there's just not going to be a reality where a Ben Sasse style of conservative is the Republican candidate in 2024. But, if Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, or Tim Scott choose to go with the lane I'm describing, it just might open up a way for a more Ben Sasse style of conservative to be Vice President and run a successful campaign in the future.

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      Michael Darwin

      A fresh face who largely avoided the Trump drama might be our best bet. Staunch anti-Trumpists like Mike Lee or Ben Sasse or Larry Hogan are likely out (unless somehow Trump's base turns on him in the next 3 years), and there are a number of Trump suck ups like Ted Cruz that completely lost credibility with me and will not recover it. Haley could still pull it off but in trying navigate the minefield she may have left herself open to criticisms from both sides. Tim Scott is interesting because I don't recall him getting tangled up in Trump's politics one way or another.

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      1. Vitaly

        After reading this article, I would agree that Pompeo has a very good chance at the nomination. As Secretary of State, he managed to conduct a muscular and somewhat Reaganesque foreign policy while placating Trump at the same time. At the same time, his biography is more George Bush Sr. (military service, Harvard Law, Congress, CIA, State Dept...) He is a good speaker and has charisma. His Kansan roots should help him and Iowa and he also would be very competitive in New Hampshire. Finally, he is most likely of them all to run even if Trump does too... which means he will get in very early. Finally, he will be 60 - a perfect age for the candidate for president. Compared to him, both DeSantis and Haley look too young and Biden... well... A Biden-Pompeo race will be very interesting!

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  3. Mary Stine

    From my perch as a left of center Dem, these candidates all have one thing in common: disciplined ambition, something Trump never had. The question is: will that matter to voters??
    Of the three, Pompeo is the most ruthless and strong spoken, he'll appeal best to Trumpers. He is also the most arrogant and self centered. He's from Kansas and knows how to reach the rural Midwestern and Western voter, even without boots and a cowboy hat. He's quite intelligent, but he is often able to convey this as competence and not alienate voters. If he wants voters beyond the Trump base he needs to talk about his vision of the future, while toning down Dem bashing rhetoric. Unlike Trump, Pompeo is fully capable of beating the pulp out of his opponents, physically and mentally. Most people can sense that and if he doesn't want to be written off as just another bully, he needs to show he is more than that, and also that he likes people. Kissing babies and beagle dogs would help, too.
    Nikki Haley is certainly the most flexible and probably the most intelligent, not as ruthless as Pompeo, but just as ambitious. The Trump base would never vote for her: she's a woman, she has a foreign lineage, and she'd make most of them feel dumb, even if that wasn't her intent.
    Also, she'd never be a credible blonde. She might have real appeal to some Democrats and many unaffiliated voters, however. She could only capture the Trump voter if she found a guitar, learned to sing country western ballads, and went on tour with Dolly Parton. Actually, that would increase her appeal with everyone.
    Mike Pence has the best conservative faith credentials of the three, but he lacks ruthlessness.
    Also, he "assisted the enemy" on Jan. 6th. Pence seems to have a sincere faith and a set of firm principles, but he is not intentionally cruel. I can't see him getting any Trump voters, who all tell me they want a "strongman", and it's hard to see him picking off any moderates or swing voters due to his record on LGBTQ issues and birth control. His best option is to pray for a miracle,
    go on tour with the Reverend Barber of the Poor People's Campaign and pray with all the people he's been ignoring.

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      Michael Darwin

      Does it have to be beagles or will any dog do?

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  4. Randall Briggs

    What a non-fascinating series this is: "Will the GOP nominate a Trump sycophant, or merely a Trump toady, in 2024?"

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  5. James B. Ronan II

    Think VP Pence and Secretary Pompeo should change their first names to Bob. Every time Trump said something they would bob their heads "yes". Further, I voted for Amb. Haley twice for governor because of her perceived courage in facing down the good old boys in her initial gubernatorial campaign and for getting the rebel flag off state house grounds. Apparently she as the courage of her ambition but not of her convictions.

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    I Am the Eggman

    I have to respect Pence a little for doing his duty on January 6. That counts for something, but it's not enough after four years of being Trump's lapdog. Of course, one could argue that VP is inherently a lapdog position; you don't make policy, just carry it out. But accepting the role of Trump's running mate in the first place was a bad call. There is no way to work for Trump without coming away dirty. Ask Michael Cohen.

    As for the others... Pompeo actually is not an idiot, and it's conceivable that he might make an okay President, but his toadying for Trump tarnishes him just as much as it does Pence.

    Niikki Haley can't keep her story straight from one day to the next. She's not stupid, but she has no integrity. She's like a female Trump who isn't actually an idiot or a loon (unlike MTG, the female Trump who is both an idiot and a loon).

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    Graps

    This series has been top shelf. And God bless Stirewalt for calling out the laziest stories of all: "Here's how Twitter reacted to ". If pixels can be wasted, that's the crap that wastes the most.

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    David M

    Thanks guys, great work.

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  9. KyleGF

    Not important, but I believe both Alexander and Elizabeth Dole ran in 2000, but both dropped out prior to the primaries. Alexander was the last semi-serious cabinet secretary.

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  10. CatoTheElder

    I'll start at the end and work backwards:

    What's wrong with polling is BOTH how it's done and how it's used. Many polls, as noted, aren't worth even a flicker of attention, being so poorly thought out, designed, and performed--often intentionally--that there should be a polling Hall of Shame housing the more notable miscreants. And of course, the "how they're used" part is equally depressing.

    Thinking of this sort of thing should cause one to consider just how valuable a summer 2021 list of possible 2024 GOP candidates really is. The answer: not very. Follow-up question: Is it better to divide the discussion up over several installments, grouping the potential candidates by current job or position in the political world? Answer: No. Okay, another follow-up: Is it okay to do this just 'cause some of us are political junkies, and like all junkies, we're always a little anxious about what's to come, and boy, howdy, what is this but a good time to be anxious about what's to come? Answer: Yeah, sure. Just don't take it seriously.

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