The Sweep: They Only Need One

An early look at Senate races in Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Alabama.

By , , , and
11

This week’s Sweep is all about (and only about) the GOP’s efforts to take back the Senate in 2022. We’ve got some great reported pieces below about the races in Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Alabama. And then some more traditional punditry from me and Chris. 

Sarah’s Quick Take:

They only need one. And it sounds so easy. Since Richard Nixon, five of the seven presidents have lost at least one Senate seat in their first midterm—Obama lost six and Clinton lost eight. But kind of like how all politics is local, all campaign cycles are different. Republicans already have four big retirements to deal with,  in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Missouri—and that doesn’t count either Iowa’s Chuck Grassley (who is 87 years old) or Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson (who said in 2016 he wouldn’t run again), neither of whom have yet declared their intentions. Those four states will host bruising and expensive primaries, and it’s not hard to imagine 2022’s version of Todd Akin winning one of them. 

Chris’ Corner:

The midterm curse really applies only to the House … unless you’re a Democratic president. While presidents of both parties have been almost equally afflicted by first-term losses in the House—an average of 22 seats going back to Ronald Reagan—it’s different for the Senate. No Republican president has overseen first-term Senate losses since Gerald Ford in 1974, and he had some other stuff going on that fall. Meanwhile, every Democratic president since Lyndon Johnson in 1966 has seen his Senate conference shrink.

As Republicans have become the rural party and Democrats the urban party, it’s helped the GOP in the Senate. As Democrats never tire of pointing out, the Senate is not about representing individuals, but rather the states themselves. The Cook Political Report classifies 18 states as Democratic leaning, two (New Hampshire and Nevada) as dead even, and the other 30 as leaning Republican. If 60 percent of the states are at least a little Republican-leaning, that’s a nice head start for the red team.

Keep reading with a free account
Create a free Dispatch account to keep reading Get Started ALREADY HAVE AN ACCOUNT? SIGN IN
11
By , , , and
Comments (11)
Join The Dispatch to participate in the comments.
 
  1. Avatar photo
    JohnM.

    Another excellent Sweep! Thanks to all of you for such an insightful piece of writing.

    Collapse
  2. Avatar photo
    Angie

    Always fun and interesting to read..thanks everyone

    Collapse
  3. Avatar photo
    Ethan Cordray

    Here in Missouri, I'd been thinking that Greitens would be the most insane option, but now McCloskey has really raised the bar. I imagine the relatively-sane GOP members are hoping that Triggerfinger and Fifty Shades split the nutcase block and let one of the normal Missouri Republican garbage people get over the line. Remind me again why state parties aren't allowed to simply tell some people, "No, you can't run in our primary, sorry"?

    Personally, the immolation of the state's Republican party has made my own decision a whole lot easier than in years past: I'm gonna vote D on everything. Hell, I might even give their Senate candidate some money.

    Collapse
  4. Avatar photo
    Dave Conant - MO

    So Mr. Brooks is suggesting that the people of Alabama follow him in groveling at the feet of a disgraced former president and failed insurrectionist? Doesn't make much sense to me.
    I suspect that the real question in Missouri is who the Democrats find to run. The Republican choices are all a step back from Mr. Blount except for the two Congresspeople. It will be tough to call and harder to watch if someone like Greitens gets the nomination.

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      Cecelia Grace

      Unfortunately Mo Brooks's plan does make sense... look at Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), who successfully beat incumbent Doug Jones (D) in Alabama's last election cycle. His one campaign promise was to do whatever Donald Trump said. He captured something like 70% of the vote (I'm too busy closing tabs to go open another to find the exact number, but it was a clear majority).

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        Dave Conant - MO

        Not going to worry about the details, your point is well and accurately made. Indiana's Mike Braun ran and won on the same platform and still pushes it today.

        Collapse
  5. Petrean_04

    Why isn't Nevada on the list that Democrats need to watch, along with New Hampshire?

    Collapse
  6. Avatar photo
    Paul Britton

    Andrew and Ryan, I have to ask: When Republican candidates won’t speak to a reporter for The Dispatch, can we infer that it’s because they think of The Dispatch as a never-Trump media outlet that’s on the former president’s enemies list?

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      Andrew Egger

      It's hit-or-miss, honestly. Some candidates/campaign staff are extremely skittish of all coverage that isn't guaranteed to be favorable; others operate according to the philosophy that it's better to try arguing a reporter around to their way of seeing things rather than clamming up and letting pieces go up without including their perspective. So the phenomenon you describe exists, but it isn't universal.

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photocircle-angle-nib
        Ryan Brown vertical-nib Author

        Yep, I largely agree with Andrew here. I haven't run into any blatant bias against The Dispatch, but sometimes it's hard to know why someone won't respond to your emails.

        Collapse
  7. Avatar photo
    Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

    It's too early to tell, but republicans need something bad to happen in one of the blue states in order for them to get to a majority.

    Republicans need to hope for tru wuvvvvv to seize a Dem senate candidate about a month before the general election, while avoiding it themselves.

    Collapse