The Sweep: Warning Signs for the GOP’s Senate Hopes

Plus: It’s 2015 all over again.

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The Big Sort, Continued

Axios has a fascinating survey out this week about which states Americans are considering moving to and why.  Not surprisingly in our current culture, a lot of Americans are factoring some amount of partisanship into that decision. Here are some of their findings:

• Republicans were more likely to consider moving to red states (51 percent) than blue states (20%) or swing states (28%).

• Democrats were more likely to consider moving to blue states (48%) than red states (25%) or swing states (27%).

• More than half of Republicans (58%) and Democrats (55%) said they thought about moving to a state where the government better reflects their political and policy values, while 69% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans considered moving to a state that’s a closer match with their cultural and social values.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Jonathan M

    I'd be interested to hear how you all think a Cheney-Manchin unity ticket would fare in the event that Trump and Biden were the 2024 nominees. I feel as though they both have credentials that put them squarely on their respective sides of the isle, but also have moved to the center enough on some issues to capture voters who are disenchanted by their respective parties.

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    Victor Clairmont

    Oz is losing to a man who had a stroke.

    Other candidates elected are far to right wing to win.

    The GOP has done this before where in winnable situations they put forth the most hard liners that will not appeal to the center left or right.

    Nevermind the fact democrats have also funded candidates in the past they wanted to see win their opposition’s primary to hopefully beat them in the general.

    Which is one of the worst thing about politics: how your opposition funds the worst, and then goes “look how crazy this is!”.

    Pot calling the kettle black I guess. But such is the state of our politics.

    I am laughing though at the Oz/Trump endorsement.

    And I wish the people of Pennsylvania the best.

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  3. George Mallory

    Very disappointing performance by Kevin McCarthy. Hageman is a Trump suck-up and very unimpressive. She was always going to win and there was no reason for McCarthy to spend political capital on behalf of her.
    I live in Texas and support some of Ted Cruz's positions but his undisciplined mouth has alienated many reasonable people and he will never attract a national following. He should sharpen and discipline his message and with the entire party, he needs to move on from Trump.

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    Dustin Anglin

    My takeaway from that Axios story on where people would consider living, is that the predominant motives for picking a state are still "can I afford a house there" and "are my parents nearby so they can babysit." That has been, anecdotally, what I've experienced of people who are moving out of my very progressive, very expensive tech city. Political variance is much more tolerable than unaffordable housing. I'm sure it probably doesn't hurt that most of the blue to red moves I've known have been to blue or purplish enclaves in otherwise red states.

    That said, I would be curious to see as red states start to solidify their post-Dobbs positions on reproductive care, whether that will become more of a sticking point in moving decisions. Obnoxious state governments are one thing, but not being able to get proper care for a miscarriage might actually be an intolerable loss for young families looking to relocate.

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    JohnM.

    This may be the most depressing edition of The Sweep that I've read, but it's still so darn good! Thanks, gang.

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    Phil H

    The GOP quest to retake the Senate is in trouble because they are running non-serious candidates in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. And their Arizona candidate is running on the same ticket as COP candidate for governor, Kari (F)lake.
    That's in addition to (and possibly caused by?) their woes raising money.

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  7. zdebman

    As your fellow Dispatcher Scott Lincicome points out, there is a difference between stated preference and revealed preference. On the Axios poll, I don't actually see anything happening on state to state migration, at least amongst the highly-educated, that isn't actually driven by seeking lower taxes (NY to FL, CA to TX, etc.), less crime and cheaper housing, rather than the stated fear of moving from a red state to a blue state or vice versa.

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  8. Richard Palzer

    Cheney vs. McCarthy? Should hardly be a contest: Who wouldn't choose courage, moral compass, and integrity in pursuit of truth over cowardly expedience enabling the continued "rigged election" lie in pursuit of power? Shamefully, the vast majority of Republican leaders, who have seen fit to abandon principle by catering to the cult of Trump and rebuking as "RINOS" the few true Republican conservatives of conscience. Should be a no-brainer. Except it's not. The Party has lost its ethical way.

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    Jesse Blankenship

    I’ve already closed the books. My interest is elsewhere. Blue holds +2

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    Mr. "B"

    If the GOP retakes the House I hope the conference dumps McCarthy for someone else. He is such a weasel.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Chany Ockert

      I betcha Elise Stefanik makes a play for Speaker.

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    2. David R

      I don't think it's possible for a non-weasel to hold the job of house GOP leader right now.
      There aren't enough actual Trump cultists (even after some bad primary choices in overwhelmingly Republican districts), the non-actual Trump cultists won't vote for an actual Trump cultist, and the non-weasel, non-Trump cultists were all primaried or otherwise won't be back.

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      1. Seth

        In a practical sense, he's the moderate compromise leader. Not sure whether to laugh or cry.

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