The Sweep: Will the Dems’ McMullin Strategy Pay Off in Utah?

Plus: Georgia Republicans appear to be uniting behind Brian Kemp.

By , and
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Evan McMullin. (Photo by George Frey/Getty Images.)

Red Rhode Island 

Republicans are feeling bullish even in the bluest places. Just look at Rhode Island. Democrats have controlled the 2nd Congressional District for 30 years. Biden won the district by roughly 14 points in 2020. So why do Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball say the race is a tossup?

Meet Allan Fung, the former mayor of Cranston who ran unsuccessfully for governor of Rhode Island in 2014 and 2018. Election analysts say Fung’s centrist platform makes him a strong candidate for the open seat—and he’s up by 8 points in a recent poll. Fung has also locked in financial support from the Kevin McCarthy-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund. Chris Christie just finished a campaign swing through the district to tout Fung’s record.

Fung says Democrats have struggled to tie him to the rest of the GOP. “Whether it’s abortion, guns, economy, everything, I don’t fit their narrative,” Fung recently told Politico.

Of course, Rhode Island isn’t the only blue spot that could turn red. Republicans are drooling over the prospect of unseating Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Sean Patrick Maloney in New York. But more on this ongoing saga next week …

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  1. Yoshi

    Unless there's just some groundbreaking October surprise, Mike Lee will win

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    Philbnichols

    Thanks, Sweepers!

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  3. Michael.Mcchesney

    "going so far as to compare Trump on the campaign trail to Captain Moroni, a military commander in the Book of Mormon."

    Am I the only person that read this and (at least momentarily) thought it was referring to Trey Parker's and Matt Stone's Broadway show? What can I say? There weren't a whole lot of Mormon's in my Bronx neighborhood when I was growing up. There weren't any African-Americans either, but that was because of an illegal conspiracy between the neighborhood realtors. I am not sure what they had against Mormons though.

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    Bayesian

    I don't understand the question "Could California Republicans have beaten Gov. Newsom in the recall if they’d gotten behind state Sen. Susan Rubio?" other than a product placement for Sen Rubio (whom I have nothing against, BTW) - what makes her particular appealing in your minds as a crossover candidate to garner Republican votes? Ethnicity? Victim story versus her ex?

    Wouldn't Rubio have to, you know, shown any interest in running in the recall as a starting point? Or at least have a high profile as a maverick voter in the legislature (cf Will Hurd)?

    From my perspective (ticket-splitting CA voter, weak D alignment for state level offices, approximately equal hatred for wokism and Trumpism) the recall was an impressive self-goal for the Republicans, assuming the intent was to replace Newsom in the Governor's office, either as a result of the recall or via weakening him for November. The Rs had a candidate in Kevin Faulconer who is about the closest thing they were going to get to a California version of Larry Hogan, and who *might* have had a tiny chance in November. Instead the Rs with their choice of Larry Elder, a Trumpy talkshow blowhard, just gave Newsom and the hard progressives more fuel.

    Assuming the goal with the recall was to throw a temper tantrum, well, mission accomplished. I realize that a temper tantrum can win in the electoral college given HRC as the opponent (maybe even versus Biden 2024, or, imaginary God help us, Harris), but for Governor of CA? Nope. Unless the California Rs are playing some Trumpy 4D chess as accelerationists, hoping the progressive wing of the state Ds really overreaches. Possible, I guess, but even assuming that's the "plan", I fail to see that signal boosting Larry Elder helps that plan.

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    1. Kroneborge

      Decreeing strict stay at home mandates while violating those mandates seems like a reasonable basis for a recall to me.

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        Bayesian

        I consider that the hypocrisy of Newsom's fancy-pants dinner only a marginally reasonable basis for a recall (how about sheer *stupidity* on Newsom's part? I kind of think that is a somewhat better basis). But then again I would hold myself to the same standard regardless of my personal feelings about or political alignment relative to any hypothetical recall target.

        OTOH gross "do what I say, not what I do" is at least endemic, if not pandemic :), among politicians, and if we were to apply an equivalent standard to every other legally recallable (meaning states or smaller jurisdictions like counties , cities, legislative districts which have established recall procedures) officeholder we'd be doing nothing but continuous recall elections.

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          Citizen60

          Newsom can be an idiot; but R's backing Larry Elder--was a "genius" move to insure there will be no chance of a Republican governor anytime soon.

          Elder advocated off-shore oil drilling....

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    2. Michael.Mcchesney

      My sister has been living in California since 1998 and was a Republican until she quit the GOP because of Trump. She was angry at the recall and voted for Newsome. I would have voted to recall him, but it would have been illegal since I live in NY. I thought about changing my registration, but didn't really see much point. Just because I am a registered Republican doesn't mean I have to vote for GOP nominees. If that were true I would have had to vote for Trump and I voted against him 3 times. I prefer keeping my option to vote against him in the 2024 NY primary open.

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        Bayesian

        I'm curious on what specific basis you would vote to recall Newsom, or is it just a gestalt? For me (your mileage may vary) a recall is equivalent to an impeachment (though without the 2/3 majority) and should have a much higher barrier than just "I don't like how X has behaved in office".

        The CA recall process (for state executive offices) is messed up in that if a recall succeeds, the biggest vote getter in the simultaneous free for all election gets the office until the next regularly scheduled election, rather than a runoff. Ahnuld won the election that happened simultaneously with the recall of Gray Davis (and then won the normally scheduled next election). I'd feel somewhat differently about recalls if the Lt Gov took up the spot.

        I voted against the Newsom recall (as well as against the recall of the rather more atrocious Gray Davis) because neither Governor had done anything any stupider than was reasonably expectable based on the previous general election (which in Davis' case happened less than a year before the recall).

        If it were Faulconer running for gov this fall, I would vote for him over Newsom, but I would still have voted no on the recall. Similarly, while I would not have voted for Scott Walker, I strongly suspect that I would have voted against the recall of him (I've forgotten all the points of the yes on recall campaign - if I thought the suspension of the state employee collective bargaining rights was actually unconstitutional, notwithstanding the Wisconsin Supremes holding it acceptable, I might have a different take)

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        1. Michael.Mcchesney

          As I said, I don't live in CA. But as a Republican I disagree with him on many issues, including whether the governor should be allowed to attend parties at fancy restaurants when regular people may not. But I can certainly respect your view that politicians should only be recalled for conduct that might merit impeachment. But I see it that once the requisite number of people have signed recall petitions, voters are free to vote for or against recall for whatever reasons they choose.

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    Stephanie

    Apparently the most egregious gerrymandering is currently in the states' own legislative districts. That is supposedly what's enabled some of the extreme anti-trans, anti-abortion, and anti-CRT (CRT not taught in any schools, BTW) laws coming out of red states.

    In Ohio, according to an article in The New Yorker last month by Jane Mayer ("Goodbye Columbus"), Republicans have a veto-proof majority in the state legislature and only have to fear being primaried from the right. They passed an abortion law that only 39% of Ohio voters support and are planning to vote on a fetal personhood law backed by religious extremists in their next/current session.

    Thus we end up with statehouses far to the right of most voters in their state.

    Even when voters show by ballot measures what policies they support, these state governments can decide to ignore the results.

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      JohnM.

      I know that 'CRT is not taught in schools' is the current talking point, but it is simply shorthand for the tenets of CRT which are being introduced in classrooms.

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        Stephanie

        Proof?

        My understanding is that none of that is being taught.

        Hopefully, though, teachers are teaching tolerance and of the existence of racism and the slave trade and the fact that the whole economy of the South was built on slave labor . . .

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        1. Kroneborge

          If you simply google "crt examples in public schools" You will get a ton of examples, here are some of them

          https://defendourkids.org/examples-of-crt/
          https://www.thecollegefix.com/yes-crt-is-taught-in-k-12-schools-heres-how/

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            Stephanie

            Thank you for providing what you think is good information, but defend our kids dot org sounds like some astroturfing group with a right wing extremist agenda.

            I won't read it as I have no time for material that needs to be fact-checked.

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  6. Eric Bohl

    That video is the most fascinating thing I've seen all week. Thanks Sarah!

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    Will I Am

    I tend to vote Republican, but in your hypothetical, I’d vote for “Democrat” Will Hurd in a heartbeat over Greg Abbott. Vote for Beto? No way. As it stands, I’ll probably look to see who the Libertarian candidate is or write in “none of the above” in my vote for Governor.

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    Gordy Eicher

    With your interest in curling, Sarah, you must take a few minutes to listen to this most unlikely devotee to curling. A man from the deep south who was taken in by the sport. The pertinent portion for those interested in how he got involved starts at 22:20, if you don't have time to catch the entire hour interview. I'm certain that you will enjoy it.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fhuhADCI4M

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    Earl King

    I find myself saying something like, "gosh this is a very strange year in politics". Inevitably I say that almost every election cycle. As it is very likely the GOP will control the House we also should remember that controlling one house of Congress actually means not much. The Senate majority has a bit more juice in things like appts but it still cannot stop Pres. Biden from using his phone and pen. Implementing emergency Covid Powers to address a Progressive wish list. Congress will not take back Executive Power, they refuse preferring to have the imperial Presidency....Which I will remind you all gets us Trump and Biden. Pardon me I need somewhere to vomit now.

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    Man-Eating Cow

    I have been watching the Utah race from hy hospital bed.

    I hope McMullin beats Lee like a rug. I don't care if that makes some Democrats happy.

    It's hard for a non-LDS to appreciate how offensive the Captain Moroni remark is to LDS who recognize Trump for what he is.

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      Citizen60

      Feel better. I really hope the Captain Moroni is offensive enough to overcome Utah's unwavering commitment to the Republican Party. Utah voted for Trump both times.

      I think McMullin would make an excellent Senator, and I favor more Independents & 3rd parties in Congress (both Houses) as proof the voters reject the crazies. I'm find with caucusing with whatever party--"split ticket" voting works for me.

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      Bayesian

      Hospital bed? Yikes! Hope whatever it is dissipates/cures rapidly.

      Obviously the great majority of Utah LDS voters either either didn't recognize Trump for who he repeatedly told them he was (Lee's Captain Moroni comparison was just before Nov 2020 for those who have forgotten) or still considered Trump vastly preferable to Biden*. Perhaps a relative handful have since changed their minds re Trump (the Captain Moroni figure on 1/6 was a particular nice touch, I thought - has Sen Lee commented on that?), or since this is just a race for Senate might theoretically not vote for Lee, but, well, I'll believe it when I see it. Are people on the ground in Utah calling McMullin a MIMO? I would assume so.

      * Since Trump took 58% of the 2020 Utah vote, and the non-LDS part of the Utah electorate tends to vote significantly more D than the state as a whole, it seems reasonable to assume that more than 2/3rds of the Utah LDS considered Trump as the best option on their ballot (checking just now, I'm "impressed" than then-Kanye, now Ye, got almost half a percent in Utah, his best result. Idaho was his second best result - maybe there was something about him that appealed to LDS?)

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