Performative Bravado

Sarah and the guys discuss the protests to reopen the economy amid the coronavirus outbreak, ...

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Sarah and the guys discuss the protests to reopen the economy amid the coronavirus outbreak, testing capacity and the divide between the federal government and states, and the president’s move to block new green cards.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Dan Jett

    Good pick for an album, Sarah.

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    Theirn Scott

    Sarah, of all the albums mentioned I was intrigued by "Flood by "They Might be Giant's." I listen to that album today. It's not my cup of tea, except for one song. "Your Racist Friend", that one has been added into my favorites playlist after listening to it three times.

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    Mark Wm L

    Re: best album top to bottom that brings you joy: props to Steve on his pick of BHTM Midnight Radio (Sister Sweetly & Beautiful World both very good) & surprising to hear Jonah is a fan of the Man in Black. Two more suggestions, Sarah: The Avett Brothers I and Love and You is joyful. Sturgill Simpson's Grammy-winning A Sailor's Guide to Earth is literally an album of songs he wrote as advice to his young son, so fitting for your situation--not exactly joyful, but wise.

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    Aquamarine

    I would be interested to know what the Dispatch podcasters think of Dan Crenshaw's fairly recent podcast, in which he outlined what the Trump administration was doing in February, disagreeing with idea of the "lost month of February". I know at this point to some extent it doesn't matter anymore, but since the consensus at the Dispatch seems in agreement with the idea that a lot more should have been done in February by the administration (and would have been done by more competent leadership), I would appreciate hearing what you think of the information presented by Rep. Crenshaw.

    (I know this comment is not directly on topic here, but I can't find a better place for it--sorry!)

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    Julia

    Since Thriller is ruined, Purple Rain.

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    BillK

    Steve, the other day my son asked me to name five albums I like to listen to all the way through. had "Midnight Radio" on my list too. After graduating from CU Boulder (where Todd and the boys are from and went to school as well) I had an internship at Heritage - that's when that album just came out. It brings back great memories.

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  7. Nathan Shiba

    David, humbly, I think several of your comments concerning testing, testing compared to Korea, and what level of testing is required to begin to open up the country are, to a meaningful extent, brought into question by the data, and in the case of your comments concerning Scott Gottlieb, perhaps lacking context.

    I'll start by agreeing with you. Korea has done a much better job in flattening the curve and minimizing the spread of the virus. But is testing the only substantive reason why Korea is faring better, and is the US testing throughput today the limiting factor in terms of taking a "Korean approach" to dealing with COVID-19?

    When asked by Sara about testing you stated, (correctly I believe,) that (1) comparing the absolute number of tests performed in Korea versus the US is not meaningful because of the differences in the population size. (2) You went further and implied that unlike Korea we're only testing those with symptoms or have the presumption of exposure to someone who has had COVID-19. (3) Finally, you cited Dr. Gottlieb as an expert who presumably indicated that we could not safely begin to open up the country until testing was so widespread that, "If I go to the doctor for almost any reason, they should swab me..."

    Here's your quotation.

    "If we're ramping up testing we're going to quickly pass other countries in raw numbers but where I think critics have a valid complaint is that as of right now, by and large, you're still testing people that, quote unquote have a reason to receive a test, maybe they're showing symptoms, maybe they can identify direct exposure to somebody, and a lot of epidemiologists will say we have to test more than that. When you listen to Scott Gottlieb who has been on a number of podcasts talking about kind of the scale of testing we need he talks about 'well if I go to the doctor for almost any reason they should swab me . . . "

    1. Population and Date of 100th Case Adjusted Testing

    To provide a more useful comparison of testing between Korea and the US, you need to adjust for (1) the population and (2) a date which is a reasonable starting point for the spread of the virus in each country.

    If you compare the number of tests performed by the US and South Korea per-thousand inhabitants after that point in which the 100th case was reported, you'll find that after a slow start, the US caught up and passed Korea on an adjusted basis. 27 days after reporting the 100th case, Korea had tested 5.7/1000 to the US 3.0/1000. That's a difference of 89% in Korea's favor.

    A week later on the 34th day since the 100th reported case, Korea had tested 7.0/1000 versus the US at 5.8/1000. The gap had narrowed to a 20% population adjusted difference in 7 days. Just 4 days later on the 38th day, we essentially equaled Korea with 7.7/1000 tested.

    Today, on the 50th day since the reporting of the 100th case, the US has tested 13.5/1000 population to Korea's 9.8/1000. In other words, we've tested 27% more citizens per/1000 than Korea, and that gap is just going to keep widening.

    Here's additional context. In New York, they've tested 34.4/1000. That's almost 3x times the national average.

    If dramatically more testing is the critical precursor to a safe Phase I that many are suggesting, why hasn't Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan and other countries similarly needed vast multiples of testing per/1000 of population? What is the magic number?

    2. Criteria for Testing in the US vs. South Korea.

    The government recommendations for receiving a COVID-19 test in Korea are virtually the same as those in the US, and to this day and based on having symptoms consistent with virus or other respiratory illness. Here's a link to the KCDC website and testing FAQ.

    http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/en/faqBoardList.do?brdId=13&brdGubun=131&dataGubun=&ncvContSeq=&contSeq=&board_id=

    3. Scott Gottlieb Recommendations on Testing Required to Enter Phase I

    Dr. Gottlieb was a co-author and presumably integral part of the AEI COVID-19 Roadmap to Recovery plan. In that plan, largely adopted by the Administration, it is stated that with respect the testing throughput required to enter into Phase I,

    "We estimate that a national capacity of at least 750,000 tests per week would be sufficient to move to case-based interventions when paired with sufficient capacity in supportive public-health infrastructure."

    In the past 7 days the US has processed over 1,080,000 tests, over 330,000 tests more than Dr. Gottlieb and his co-authors indicated were necessary for a Phase I.

    The only time "widespread point-of-care testing" is mentioned in the AEI report is as a requirement for Phase III when ALL restrictions would be lifted and a vaccine or advanced therapeutics would be available.

    Now it's quite possible that Dr. Gottlieb has either changed his mind or never really agreed with the AEI report upon which his name exists, but that, at least to me, seems unlikely.

    https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/National-Coronavirus-Response-a-Road-Map-to-Recovering-2.pdf

    All this being said, there is a much better outcome in Korea than in the US. The AEI report highlights contact tracing and quarantine as at least as important a component to the overall strategy as testing. Perhaps it's time to have a more robust conversation about these other critical components.

    I fear that the nebulous goal of "dramatically increasing testing" before we open to Phase I will be the ventilator story a month from now. We will have focused all of our efforts in one spot to the detriment of a variable that actually is constraining the care and recovery from COVID-19.

    In hindsight, would it have been better to have focused obsessively on swabs and reagents rather than ventilators? I think there's a decent argument that it would have.

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  8. Daniel Hall

    Sarah - a perfect song to help the baby to sleep is "In a Landscape" by John Cage. Worked great when my twin girls were little. But, it may put you to sleep, too.

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    Chris Craft

    Sarah, I'm quite certain the others on this podcast are my contemporaries, and I'm saddened by their poor choices in albums*.

    My friends have been passing around a "challenge" to post your ten favorite albums over a ten day period.

    While my choices ran the gamut from Dave Brubeck, through Pink Floyd, Phish, and Elvis Costello, the first album, with no thought to any other was Elton John's Captain Fantastic and the Brown Dirt Cowboy. While the themes are not always "joyful," the pure musicality brings me great joy. I grew up on this album, and my children are growing up on this album.

    Elton John has called it his favorite as well.

    *I really can't slight Mr. French's actual album choice as I've never heard it, but "anything from '83 to Nirvana" is a bit of a cop-out.

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  10. Daniel Hall

    OK Computer by Radiohead

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