Happy Families

Poised to return from Maine, Jonah’s in especially scatterbrained form on today’s eclectic Ruminant. He ...

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Poised to return from Maine, Jonah’s in especially scatterbrained form on today’s eclectic Ruminant. He begins the program by expanding on Wednesday’s “news”letter and offering some further thoughts on the problematic relationship between data and audiences in today’s media space. Afterward, he addresses Biden’s “morally and politically indefensible” student loan forgiveness plan, the foolishness of politicians who don’t know what they believe, and the nature of a life well lived. Stick around until the end for ruminations on nationalism and fulfillment.

Show Notes:

– The Wednesday G-File

– James C. Scott’s Seeing Like a State

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  1. Avatar photo
    The Bell Tower

    Amen, brother. Life is much more than one thing, whatever Curly Washburn says. Your cocoon point reminded me of Tocqueville’s long ago observations about Americans:

    “I seek to trace the novel features under which despotism may appear in the world. The first thing that strikes the observation is an innumerable multitude of men, all equal and alike, incessantly endeavoring to procure the petty and paltry pleasure with which they glut their lives. Each of them, living apart, is a stranger to the fate of all the rest – his children and his private friends constitute to him the whole of mankind; as for the rest of his fellow citizens, he is close to them, but he sees them not; he touches them, but he feels them not; he exists but in himself and for himself alone; and if his kindred still remain to him, he may be said at any rate to have lost his country.“

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    Mark Wm L

    I greatly enjoyed your analysis of how moving from pro-life to less pro-life/more pro-choice is much more morally problematic than the other direction. Very insightful and helpful.

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    Jason Gibson

    do i hear waves in the background? Definately got a "last scene of planet of the apes vibe"

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    Kyzyl Tuva

    Anyone else having a problem with this podcast not updating automatically within Apple podcasts? It requires a manual operation of signing into this website, copying the RSS link and pasting into Pocast APP. I am getting behind on my favorite podcast, The Remant.

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  5. AHenry

    Here is some math it would be interesting to see... How many of the people receiving student loan forgiveness worked for companies who received PPP loans that were forgiven?

    Is that some sort of double dipping?

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  6. Pohl

    “The straight-up extremists who are, like, ‘Yeah, it’s God’s will for a ten-year-old to get raped and have a baby.’” A similarly glib remark was made in the Dispatch Podcast and again sours an otherwise nuanced discussion about “Happy Families.” But Jonah is very proud that he “stuck to [his] guns” on his abortion stance. To be exasperated with some state legislatures is completely reasonable. But this little habit of caricaturing the pro-life position on rape is disappointing, even if he has in mind only a few nutters who go overboard in their rhetoric. The arguments against rape exceptions themselves are legitimate. Otherwise, a good podcast.

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  7. Harry Hodges

    Happy Anniversary!

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  8. Harry Hodges

    Happy Anniversary!

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  9. Philebus

    Yikes! "Happy Families": When you can listen to a story and try, try, try to remember some of it for future reference. Let us discern if I've got it right: the good things about diversity; sleazy politicians; loan forgiveness and moral hazard; abortion lite, or not so much; and uhmm....uhmm...oh yea, the making of a society or a state.

    Ha! I think I have it (soon to be proved wrong).

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  10. GregS

    First, let me say that I have nothing to gain from student debt forgiveness, and generally think that the policy of forgiving federal student loans is bad - not because its unfair, but because it won't address the underlying structural issue that higher education has become grotesquely expensive.

    That being said, I find your framing of "this is bad policy because it helps people who don't need help" to be ridiculous. When Democrats suggest policies that help the actual poor, like, oh I don't know, SNAP expansion, Medicaid expansion, ACA subsidies, TANF expansion, Republicans - and most importantly, *you* - oppose them. So please spare us the bloviation that you could get behind policies that forgave car loans for poor people.

    Incidentally, I think it is actually an example of capitalism at work that higher education has become more expensive. If it is true that a college graduate makes $1 million more over her lifetime than a high school graduate, it stands to reason that there would be a steady upward pressure on the cost of getting that college degree, with a ceiling around the NPV of $1 million over a lifetime (i.e. around 400k). And lo, behold: the current cost of a private college 4 year degree (tuition+fees+room+board) is around 200k, up from about 130k (real $) 20 years ago. I predict this continues to increase for about 10 years and then stalls because that is what the NPV analysis would predict. Then whoever is in charge at that time will take credit for solving the problem of inflation in college costs and it will have had nothing whatsoever to do with anything they did.

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    1. AHenry

      $1 million over the course of 30+ years of work in no way justifies the massive inflation in the cost of college.

      Colleges now often offer undergraduate and even some graduate degrees that are worthless and they are not the typical degrees Jonah pokes fun at. In 1988, someone could graduate with a BS in occupational or physical therapy, spend six months in a residency program, pass a state board, and go to work. The all-up, four year cost of tuition, room, and board at my school was about $40K. That same school now charges $80K/year for that same BS but to become a working PT someone needs a PhD or at least three more years of school, each at $80K (assuming no tuition increases). So the BS price is double what it was but is basically useless except to spend more money on more degrees. The top salaries for a PT max out at around $90K/year so it is not a good return on investment.

      Every market the Fed enters (including healthcare, especially healthcare) has price increases faster than normal inflation. The ACA and Medicaid expansion may have increased access to health plans but has not improved healthcare outcomes, reduced costs, or decreased the use of emergency medicine. And more providers are refusing to take on Medicaid patients because the reimbursement is not worth the cost.

      In other loans - business, mortgages, even credit cards, someone who cannot pay can declare bankruptcy. That's not possible with student loans. And while bankruptcy is a terrible option it forces discipline on the lender as well as the borrower. Student loans cannot be disposed of by bankruptcy. Even if students could eliminate their loans via bankruptcy, it wouldn't matter to a "bank" that can print its own money.

      The Fed should exit the student loan business all together.

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      1. GregS

        Lets do the math:
        4 yrs BS + 3 yrs Masters = 7 yrs
        7 yrs @ $80k = $560k
        PT salary = $90k
        Baseline salary w/o PT degree = $40k
        Net diff = $50k/yr
        35 year career
        NPV of $50k annually over 35 years, with 5% discount rate = $820k
        Net value = $820k - 560k = $260k

        So even at those inflated numbers (a BS degree does *not* cost 80k per year, it costs 40k per yr on average at private school) this was still a good investment.

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        1. AHenry

          So... $90k was the TOP comp. The people I know are graduating to @30k salaries with $100k in debt. After practicing for a decade or two and building a practice, $90k is what you can expect to earn. So, no house, hard to get a car loan or credit card, etc.

          But, you're math begs the question...

          If they are doing so well why erase their debt.

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          1. GregS

            My position is that forgiving the debt is a bad idea.
            We're arguing about whether market forces would predict that the cost of college would go up if a college degree is so valuable. I am arguing that college prices will rise because colleges will capture some of the excess value of their degrees - and nothing we do can stop this unless we regulate this market to limit the value colleges are allowed to capture.

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