Will we or won’t we?
That’s the question that has captured Washington this week as President Donald Trump both muses about Israel’s war with Iran on his social media pages and says repeatedly he “may do it” or “may not do it.”
“Nobody knows what I’m gonna do,” Trump said Wednesday.
The “it” in question is getting the U.S. involved in the war on Iran, specifically aiding Israel in its targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. And Trump is absolutely right that nobody—not Congress, not Israel, certainly not Iran, and maybe not even Trump himself—knows exactly what he will do.
The entire situation is proving to be a real test to the president’s coalition, which includes those who believed him when he said on the campaign trail that he would seek to end “forever wars.” But support for Israel isn’t just a slogan, it’s something that the vast majority of Republicans and specifically MAGA Republicans believe in. And Trump is nothing if not deeply attuned to what his base wants.
He’s also interested in the certainty of success, which is another way of looking at the decision tree here. Trump and his administration initially greeted last week’s news from the Middle East with trepidation, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio issuing a terse statement noting that Israel took “unilateral action” on the night of June 12 as news of the strikes on key Iranian sites and assets came in. By the next day, with the resounding success of the initial round of attacks more clear, Trump suggested that Israel’s strike was a direct result of Iran failing to take him up on the deal American negotiators had been working out.
Trump’s repeated declaration this week that Iran could not get a nuclear bomb seems to have gotten the nationalist doves nervous that he might actually get involved. Tucker Carlson is their chief leader, and despite the anti-interventionists having an ally in the form of J.D. Vance, the vice president has thus far sided with Trump.
“He may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian enrichment. That decision ultimately belongs to the president. And of course, people are right to be worried about foreign entanglement after the last 25 years of idiotic foreign policy,” Vance said Tuesday in a lengthy X post. “But I believe the president has earned some trust on this issue. And having seen this up close and personal, I can assure you that he is only interested in using the American military to accomplish the American people’s goals. Whatever he does, that is his focus.”
As my colleague John McCormack has reported, the doves who oppose any military action appear to be losing the argument. For now. As Trump himself put it, nobody knows what he’s going to do.
—Michael
Top Stories From the Dispatch Politics Team
Trump Is Winning the Iran Argument Within MAGA World—For Now
DOGE’s Legacy Up for Votes in Congress
Democrats Shout ‘No Kings,’ but Maybe They Need One
2025 Gubernatorial Races May Point the Way for Democrats
Two Truths About Abortion Laws and Life-Threatening Pregnancies
Bordering on Overkill
Enjoying our Dispatch Politics Roundup? Consider forwarding this article to someone you know who likes independent, fact-based journalism.
Please note that we at The Dispatch hold ourselves, our work, and our commenters to a higher standard than other places on the internet. We welcome comments that foster genuine debate or discussion—including comments critical of us or our work—but responses that include ad hominem attacks on fellow Dispatch members or are intended to stoke fear and anger may be moderated.
With your membership, you only have the ability to comment on The Morning Dispatch articles. Consider upgrading to join the conversation everywhere.