An Early Look at Pennsylvania’s 2022 Senate Race

Two Republicans are vying for former President Trump’s support while the two leading Democrats push progressive agendas.

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The election to replace retiring Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey is still a year and a half away, but existing political dynamics are already shaping the field. For the Republicans, President Donald Trump looms over the race as the two candidates getting the most attention are vying for his support. Meanwhile, two Democratic contenders are working to avoid being labeled as progressives—which could make it difficult to win a statewide race—while at the same time calling for a $15 minimum wage, Medicare for All, and student debt relief.

Pennsylvania’s Senate race stands out even in a midterm that will be highly focused on the upper chamber. History tells us that the opposing party of the sitting president does well in midterm elections, but some early predictions on how the Senate map will shake out indicate it’s going to be a tough fight for either party to gain control of what is presently an evenly divided Senate. 

The GOP has controlled Toomey’s seat, except for a few years when Arlen Specter switched parties, since 1969. But there are only two seats nationwide occupied by a Republican in a state won by Biden in 2020 (the other is held by Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin). Democrats sense an opportunity.

The Trump Factor

Two candidates who are relatively new to politics seem to be garnering the most attention on the Republican side: Jeff Bartos, a real estate developer, and Sean Parnell, a combat veteran, author, and frequent Fox News guest. Neither of them have held elected office, but not for lack of trying. Bartos was the GOP nominee for lieutenant governor in 2018, and Parnell ran in 2020 to unseat Rep. Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania’s 17th Congressional District. 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Cornelius O’Brien

    Curious if the Dispatch has any insight on whether PA will re-district Conor Lamb's district again. Seems like a high value target for that same BS as last time. If they do why wouldn't Parnell run for that seat again?

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    Bayesian

    Appreciate the on the ground reportage about Fetterman. Since I don't live in PA, I just get to watch. Would probably vote Costello if he were to run, otherwise the D. Here in the ever-wokening CA, the party ID of the next Senator is pretty much a foregone conclusion, but in my on-the-bubble CD of CA-48 (solid R for decades until 2018, a RINO turned D in 2018, a POC Trumpy R in 2020 (Biden + 1.5, Trumpy R with deep roots in the district +2.2) the choice between the incumbent Trumpolator and an expletive deleted progressive wokester is depressingly possible for 2022. It's a relatively easy decision but still ...

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  3. Ryan King

    I'm not the best with national election politics, but didn't Biden win Maine and Susan Collins won there? Can someone help me out?

    "But there are only two seats nationwide occupied by a Republican in a state won by Biden in 2020 (the other is held by Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin). Democrats sense an opportunity."

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    1. Dave Rogers

      Susan Collins isn't up for re-election next year.

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    Stephanie

    Why do you call him "President Donald Trump"? Was this article written last year?

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    1. Avatar photo
      Bayesian

      1) 1st sentence contains "former President Trump" which is an accurate descriptor, methinks.

      2) Because Those Who Matter on the 'Murrican Right think His Trumpiness is still President in some Platonic sense (e.g. according to the Unstolen election results or whatever other conspiracy theory they are supporting Today).

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  5. Robert Bailey

    Hey Dispatch, please ask these Senate candidates (and all candidates) one question: did Joe Biden win a free and fair election. If they say no or hedge, we’ll know they are worthless Trump zombies. We don’t need that. I’d rather have a Dem. Heck I’d rather pick a random convict from the state prison.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Bayesian

      reminds me of Alan Jacobs (qv, a socon who never as far as I know lost his mind, kind of like Our David French in that respect) who said in 2016 that he would vote for "any living American other than Charles Manson" over Trump. Of course, Alan Jacobs takes his Evangelical Christianity both seriously and literally, and while I'm not, I love him for it.

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      Patrick Stuart

      This is especially true because our gerrymandered legislature tried to overturn the popular vote. They failed only because the PA Supreme Court stepped in.

      I may never vote for a Republican for statewide office again.

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        Cornelius O’Brien

        The PA Supreme Court punted/ buried the issue raised in the Parnell lawsuit. I think the outcome is correct but, the reasoning was bogus and bankrupt.

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        1. Avatar photo
          Cornelius O’Brien

          Politicians in robes.

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      2. Robert Bailey

        After 35 years voting Republican I quit the party shortly after the 1st impeachment acquittal-it was the last straw (of course it then got much worse). I definitely will not vote Republican again until this entire generation literally dies off or retires. It is diseased and rotten to the core.

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    Aylene Wright

    I check Costello's Twitter out at times and he's already attacking Fetterman, who I assume he sees as his most likely Democratic opponent if he were to run and get through the Republican primary. I assume that if he does run his argument in the primary will be about electability, especially in the suburbs. I think that even as a Trump skeptic he'd have a better showing than Michael Wood but as things are now I doubt he'd win.

    Costello also has a pet issue of accusing the Pennsylvania Supreme Court of gerrymandering Congressional Districts, has called for them to be impeached, etc. However I doubt that will rally anyone to his banner as no one really cares and it comes off as sour grapes, as he basically lost his congressional seat because of redistricting; he chose not to run in the reconstructed district because he knew it was now very favorable to Democrats and he had a high chance of losing.

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  7. Avatar photo
    karmol

    I think the GOP candidates going all-in on Trumpian tactics are going to learn the hard reality that "they ain't Trump". I had some family who worked the polls in rural PA, and anecdotally, they saw so many older people who were voting for the first time in their lives (or since the 70s). It's hard for me to imagine any of these relative no-names getting those voters out to the polls.

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  8. Avatar photo
    Rick Schwartz

    I grew up just outside Braddock, PA where Fetterman was mayor. Fetterman got a few of his buddies to open restaurants there. The steel mill is still open but doesn't employ many people who live there. Otherwise, it really looks like a city that has gone through an actual war. He did nothing for most everyone in the city and it's a crumbling mess.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Cornelius O’Brien

      To be fair, it is a lot like Berlin after the war. The mill is in North Braddock, fwiw

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      Cornelius O’Brien

      "outside Braddock" means very little. Monroeville? I know the town and Fetterman improved it and actually gave a shit.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Rick Schwartz

        I lived right up the hill from the old Westinghouse plant.

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        1. Avatar photo
          Cornelius O’Brien

          Are you Arnold Slick from Turtle Crick?

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          Rick Schwartz

          It was considered Wilkins Township although you could be in Chalfant, East Pittsburgh, Braddock, Turtle Creek, or North Braddock in about a 10 minute bike ride or a 3 minute car ride.

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            Cornelius O’Brien

            meet you for a vinny pie sometime

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  9. Timothy Knight

    It's disorienting that you have a race to embrace cult of personality on one side and earnest ideological disputes on the other. Pennsylvania Democrats might be leaning leftward, but at least they're embracing policies over personalities.

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    Chris L

    If a non-Trumpian, originalist conservative were to gain traction in this race, I would bite my lip and declare Republican (ugh I can't believe I'm saying that) since PA has closed primaries and vote for that person. Unfortunately, it looks like I'll instead have to hold out hope for a Blue Dog Democrat to come out on top.

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    1. Natty Bumpo

      My exact sentiments. A Costello would be fine, but I don't think he has a chance in Pennsyltucky. While he would likely prevail in the belt counties around Philadelphia, there may not be enough Republicans left there to matter. Lamb sounds potentially acceptable but it is much more likely we see Fetterman, who I think is a good guy but is way more progressive than I want for the Senate.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Cornelius O’Brien

        Do you mean West Pennsyltucky or East?

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      2. Avatar photo
        Rick Schwartz

        There would really be no voting difference between Fetterman and Lamb. Lamb says what he has to say in a more Trumpy district to keep people on his side but these are not different people. I went to the same private Catholic high school as Lamb and he then went to Penn. Fetterman is an Ivy League guy as well. They just put on different masks for votes but I'd classify both as elites. See my comments about Fetterman above. He brought in his buddies (all white rich folks) to set up restaurants in his "town" that no one who lives there could actually eat at. He then walks in the rubble of the streets in jeans and claims to be a man of the people. It's all an act.

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        1. Avatar photo
          Cornelius O’Brien

          Fetterman has a post-graduate degree from Harvard. His undergrad is Albright College in Reading Pennsylvania. He was raised in York PA. He's not a dilletante.

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          Cornelius O’Brien

          I think this is unfair. Fetterman didn't have to live in Braddock, or be its mayor. When he became mayor the only place to get a meal was the Braddock Hospital cafeteria. The town is an absolute toilet and it's largest employer (after they razed the hospital) pays taxes to North Braddock. I give him points for putting in the work.

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        3. Natty Bumpo

          Thanks for your view on these two guys. I have no particular problem with where anyone went to school. What matters is what they stand for and what they do. I accept that there is a lot of virtue signaling and play acting and that is done both by the left and the right. I have bigger problems with Fetterman than the question of whether he got everyone in Braddock employed.

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