Biden Has Company at the Bottom of the Barrel

What that means for 2024.

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142

The 2016 presidential election was so notable, among other reasons, because it pitted the two least-liked major-party nominees in modern political history against each other.

In an average of the five final high-quality polls of 2016, 41.4 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Hillary Clinton, and 37.4 percent felt similarly about Donald Trump. That was about 10 points below the candidates in the rancorous 2012 election and about 5 points worse than Trump and President Biden in the historically heinous 2020 contest. 

Well, if you thought 2016 was a race to the bottom, 2024 is shaping up to be a journey to the center of the earth. 

The most recent NBC News poll (which has carried on with its all-star bipartisan team of pollsters after their former partners at the Wall Street Journal bailed out), has gotten a lot of attention for its finding that Biden has reached the lowest job approval rating of his term at 40 percent. As one would expect, Biden’s poor showing was driven by voter concerns over rising prices and the economy in general. But the poll also dashes Democratic hopes that Biden would get a boost from the mostly united response of Americans in opposition to Russia’s effort to conquer Ukraine. 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    These polling results almost exactly match my own feelings: I like Biden less than I did a year ago. And I still like Trump even less than I like Biden.

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  2. Scott N.

    2024 looks like it could really be a perfect storm for a deep third party run. I'm pretty sure even a dead girl, live boy, a herd of goats, and a stack of Putin posters found in every republican candidate's bedroom would not stop the likely 2022 house/senate sweep. There'll be massive and ridiculous overreach just like the previous times that's happened - including a Biden impeachment that'll frost people badly.

    Biden will be an 82 year old running for a second term with a likely popular record on a big foreign policy issue (Ukraine), hit-and-miss with COVID (which will likely be old news whether it is or not), and almost certainly a Bush 41 recession after generational inflation struck. If Biden doesn't run, the field's open but doesn't really have anyone standout and it's not going to be a good year for the Democratic candidate.

    The Republican field...is a mess and you likely either get Trump or a Trump ally. If it's Trump, that REALLY opens the door to a 3rd party candidacy.

    The Atlantic had an amazing article about Will Hurd, former Texas Representative for huge swaths of the Border. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/will-hurd-2024-book/629398/ I could see him having tons of appeal as a young, practical, and sane option, though practically no one's heard of him.

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  3. Bill_Woods

    "It’s still far from the all-time high of 54 percent in April 2020, but a 4-point gain is still noteworthy."
    Is it? What's the margin of error on these polls?

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  4. Kgfroehle

    Polls. Sheesh.

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  5. Boatbody

    Maybe we should start a national campaign that everyone on both sides of the aisle write in Abraham Lincoln for President. If there were three or four million such ballots, would it make a statement? Why vote for flawed individuals?

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  6. Avatar photo
    Kevin M. James

    I'd just like to observe once again that voters can complain about lousy politicians all they want...but until name recognition becomes a *bad* thing, they're obviously not yet serious.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Kevin M. James

      (And yes, Trump himself didn't fit the pattern quite so neatly at the beginning of his political career...but seven years on he's traveled a long way towards becoming just another bottom-of-the-barrel-but-can't-get-rid-of-him-because-everybody-knows-his-name-and-that's-somehow-still-a-good-thing politician.)

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  7. Avatar photo
    rlritt

    All tells me is that Biden is doing something right. The left hates him because he didn't give them what the want. The crazy Right wing hates him because they hate everyone who is not Trump or his family. That leaves the sensible moderates who see Biden as a sober, experienced politician leading down the middle. Not flamboyant or sexy, which is why the ratings hungry media are desperate to get someone else in the White House.

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  8. Avatar photo
    Bill Nelson

    If you take on the job as Trump’s campaign manager, get the total in cash, up front.

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  9. Avatar photo
    Tmcke

    I am so tired of more analysis of the politics. Nearly every writer for this page was a participant in crafting the machine that empowers Republican spin. Those here have some regrets but... what the Fuck does the writer think could have been done differently, considering the politics.

    Really - what would have been a better strategy? Should Biden have ignored Ukraine? And regarding all the other issues - like inflation? It is easy now to say that it was the stimulus, but when should the spigot have been turned off? And suppose you have to choose between cutting off too early and collapsing the economy and the risk of inflation? I would choose inflation.

    We have a lot of reasonable writer here and an audience ready for it. But let's talk about what the better policy would be - and even admit to bad choices all around.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Dusty

      “I am so tired of more analysis of the politics.”

      Chris Stirewalt’s job is to write about the politics of it. That’s why he was hired. If you’re sick of reading about the political analysis you could always choose to skip by the columns that are specifically about political analysis. Problem solved.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Tmcke

        Can I just say "fuck you", I understand that all these assholes were hired for their political analysis. My suggestion is that this is fucked up. Very fucked up, in fact.

        I don't see one column that considers the 3 dimensional world where policy exists. Nor do I see policy considered without politics. It is easy to be a critique but since we have at least one opinion for every possible idea, isn't it all just bullshit??

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          Dusty

          I don’t see the point in spending $10 a month just to bitch and yell at strangers, but, to each their own.

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          1. Avatar photo
            Tmcke

            sorry but do you have a bug up your ass toward disagreement? Do you think one should subscribe only to what one agrees to?

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  10. Avatar photo
    Slp

    With the parties being so unpopular with their members are there any candidates who would be popular in the presidential race? I know people here love Senator Sasse but he wouldn't poll well nationally I don't know how he would do with the broader Republican Party.

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