Biden’s Fantasies About a New New Deal Are a Mirage

He’ll never be a transformative president, but he could still be a transitional one.

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In 2020, it was widely reported that Joe Biden wanted to be a “transitional” president. At a campaign event in Detroit, appearing with several younger, more progressive Democratic politicians, he seemed to endorse this idea.

“Look, I view myself as a bridge, not as anything else,” Biden said. “There’s an entire generation of leaders you saw stand behind me. They are the future of this country.” 

His pitch wasn’t just about his age. Biden made the case that his more moderate stance on various issues was necessary to get elected. The message to the base was, in effect: “You need to tolerate my opposition to socialized medicine and defunding the police if you want Trump out of the White House.”

But then, after he was elected, Biden got it into his head that he could “go big.” All of a sudden there was a lot of New Deal talk. The progressive base, some liberal historians, and cheerleaders in the press convinced Biden that he could be a transformative, not transitional, president who would usher in a new progressive era. 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Jason Gibson

    I’m 50-50 that the president will take this road that Jonah recommends . The Spectre of A Jimmy carter legacy looms if he doesn’t

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    PGC

    I’m going to have to disagree with Jonah on a lot of this. The Democrats play the long game. Obamacare being a pretty good example. They have been yearning for government run “universal’ healthcare since FDR. While they still don’t have it, they are a lot closer and will get to it eventually. They are shameless about cramming through whatever they can get in their 2 year windows and are willing to sacrifice their members to do it.
    And when they do, the Republicans scream bloody murder, vow to reverse it, and ultimately do nothing. They have chipped away at Obamacare but the law is still with us and ain’t going away, ever, unless the Democrats replace it with something more to their liking.
    They will do as much damage as they can through reconciliation until 2022. At which point they will either get voted back to the minority and hunker down until their next window opens or increase their majority enough to ignore Manchin and Sinema. Either way, they will, eventually, get what they want while the Republicans whine and do nothing to reverse the damage.
    And God help us if they are foolish enough to give Trump the nomination in 2024.

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    Earl King

    Umm....my point about those who voted for Trump actually voted against Biden, against loopy Democrat members and their ideas. Conversely those that voted for Biden that includes the Never Trumpers conservatives voted "against" Trump. Voted against Trump for all reasons I could list but let's start with the first one...Chaos. Trump was chaos incarnate. I's said the number of people who voted enthusiastically for either candidate might be 50% of their votes while the rest would be anti other party or candidate. I know many here hate the idea of voting based on a binary choice but that is the reality of presidential politics. Trump has changed the GOP and no matter how many conservatives hope for it...it is never going back to GH Bush.
    There might be a Reagan....but in case you all forgot Reagan was painted as an extremist...Someone who would start WWIII. he also was a Hitler and Racist and any other perforative you can throw out there.
    I guess I am left with a question for Jonah.....Transitional to what? More government paid for programs for the lower middle calls and poor? Fewer billionaires? The elimination of corporations? I have no idea what the hell Jonah means...Maybe my friends here can elucidate me.

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    1. Mary Stine

      All good points, Earl, as usual. I am looking for Biden to be a better role model than Trump. I'm hoping he can continue to lower our national temperature and speak calmly and reassuringly to people. I'm hoping he can, if not get us to love each other as Americans again, at least get us to respect our differences and find common ground. I'm hoping the lack of total daily chaos will encourage investors, inventors and entrepreneurs to roll full steam ahead!
      Actually, I think Jonah is pretty clear here: that Biden needs to lead (or drag, maybe)the transition of his fellow Democrats to the center politically. There is probably 30% who are already firmly there: that number rises to over 60% among African Americans and Latinos.
      If more people on both sides of the aisle moved to the center, much of our polarizing atmosphere might begin to die out.
      One of the problems with Democrats moving to the center, and becoming more fiscally cautious, is the sheer enormity of some of the tasks facing them: a crumbling infrastructure that has been mostly ignored for decades, sea level rise and climate change, also denied and ignored for decades, an increasing number of citizens with chronic illnesses along with a shrinking workforce. Can these be done with baby steps? Or is it "go big or go home" time??




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    2. Mary Stine

      All good points, Earl, as usual. I am looking for Biden to be a better role model than Trump. I'm hoping he can continue to lower our national temperature and speak calmly and reassuringly to people. I'm hoping he can, if not get us to love each other as Americans again, at least get us to respect our differences and find common ground. I'm hoping the lack of total daily chaos will encourage investors, inventors and entrepreneurs to roll full steam ahead!
      Biden doesn't have Ronald Reagan's soothing voice, but he does seem to sincerely love talking with and enjoying people as much as Reagan. And he too, has come from a more humble background that forged a respect for working people and the military.
      Trump lacked all of those.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Narwhal

        “I’m hoping he can continue to lower our national temperature and speak calmly and reassuringly to people. I'm hoping he can, if not get us to love each other as Americans again, at least get us to respect our differences and find common ground.”

        Then you might want to listen to Biden’s speech that Jonah selectively quotes from to make his argument in this opinion piece. Biden talks at some length to the crowd on that issue and offers a warning to them, Democrats and some rowdier progressives, if they mimic Trump and Trumpism in certain ways.

        https://www.c-span.org/video/?470101-1/joe-biden-holds-get-vote-event-detroit

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    3. Avatar photo
      Narwhal

      You wrote, “I guess I am left with a question for Jonah.....Transitional to what? More government paid for programs for the lower middle calls and poor? Fewer billionaires? The elimination of corporations? I have no idea what the hell Jonah means...Maybe my friends here can elucidate me.”

      Jonah’s closing paragraph is, “His base would scream bloody murder. But the path is there for Biden to become a transitional president—not to some new socialist nirvana, but to a more moderate Democratic Party that actually speaks to the voters who delivered him a victory in the first place.”

      Biden’s speech that day was a pitch to progressives that he would be a transitional president leading to a future president who is more progressive. It wasn’t a pitch to moderates, whether they are Ds, Rs, or Is. Here is a link to his full remarks that day: https://www.c-span.org/video/?470101-1/joe-biden-holds-get-vote-event-detroit

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      1. Avatar photo
        Earl King

        thanks it wasn't clear to me....I think I needed to hear that Biden can transition to a more moderate Democrat Party....which makes sense...I just didn't read that.

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        1. Avatar photo
          Narwhal

          Happy to help. Jonah is making a case for his desire based on a quote from a speech Biden gave where he was arguing something entirely different in an effort to placate some rowdier progressives in the crowd that day.

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  4. Avatar photo
    Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

    𝗛𝗲’𝗹𝗹 𝗻𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗲 𝗮 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗮 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗼𝗻𝗲.

    So the secret service isn't going to allow that surgery?

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    Theirn Scott

    Let's see. Our system of government lends itself to a two party system. Both parties are effectively dysfunctional. The Libertarian Party couldn't win an election if it were the only party. Is it possible that the only way to regain control of our government is to stop voting?? You know, apply the Chinese concept of Wu Wei to politics. Just a thought. Ok, a bad thought, but a thought nonetheless.

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    Will Bates

    If I am any representation of the mainstream Biden voter, I was voting for disposition and normalcy. We wanted grandpa to grab the kids by the ears and give em a talkin’-to.

    This grampa had a few too many butterscotch candies.

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      Narwhal

      Has he proposed passing MfA or the Green New Deal?

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  7. Avatar photo
    Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

    I have good news. Biden is already moving to the center: today I saw a tweet from his white house showing beef prices are down from last year, in time for the 4th of July barbeque.

    Biden is promoting beef eating? OMFG! AOC must want to shoot herself just so she can roll over in her grave. But I hope she doesn't, I don't root for anyone to shoot themselves.

    Does he realize he just lost the kale caucus? Or is he gambling they'd rather shoot themselves than vote for a Republican?

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  8. Pedro Goulart

    The data Jonah showed do not really support his argument. First, I haven't seen large deviations from what was already Biden's policy agenda during the primaries. It was already pretty bold, it was just not as bold as Bernie's and Warren's, and people didn't care because they pay attention to style rather than substance (I had to read abt his proposals at the Economist).

    Second, the data on Biden's electorate don't really prove his point, because it rests on the assumption that the median moderate or conservative normie voter is closer ideologically to the median conservative pundit (and I mean, even in big issues like inflation, look at Ramesh Ponnuru) than to the Biden administration as it is. An assumption that is.....questionable at least, especially if it's true that millennial moderates and even conservatives are more dovish on macroeconomic policy than their older cohort, who still remember the experience of inflation in the 70s. In practice, even in Jonah's podcast, you can see how conservative think tankers seem to accept that that's the direction of the current consensus, the matter being how far.

    In fact, there's issue polling showing no major red flags for the Biden agenda popularity. Granted, it's problematic to make strong inferences on this kind of polling, but still beats assuming that normies share all the opinions of pundits, just because they happen to share a label.

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  9. Obie 250

    And what is "scary enough"? For me we passed that a long time ago

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  10. Avatar photo
    Narwhal

    Jonah wrote, “Look, I view myself as a bridge, not as anything else,” Biden said. “There’s an entire generation of leaders you saw stand behind me. They are the future of this country.”

    His pitch wasn’t just about his age. Biden made the case that his more moderate stance on various issues was necessary to get elected. The message to the base was, in effect: “You need to tolerate my opposition to socialized medicine and defunding the police if you want Trump out of the White House.”

    Umm…, his statement that day was mostly about his age. But, it was also in response to the more progressive element of the crowd that day and how they perceived him. The ones whose support of him might be tepid and who might be reluctant to turn out to vote for him. It wasn’t a pitch to moderates. Don’t believe me? What the entire speech for yourself.

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?470101-1/joe-biden-holds-get-vote-event-detroit (Biden’s portion begins around 21:35 in the video, but it is perhaps worth listening to what the other speakers said, you know the future leaders)

    As Mo pointed out to Jonah the other day, there are several ways to slice up Biden’s winning coalition. Biden wouldn’t have won without increased support from moderates, but he also wouldn’t have won without progressives turning out to vote for him.

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