Can the GOP Win a Senate Seat in Virginia?

Undeterred by his failed bid for a House seat, Hung Cao considers jumping into an even tougher race.

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Hung Cao campaigns for Congress in 2022. (Submitted photo)

One of the few Republican congressional candidates to lose in 2022 but still maintain a strong grassroots following is considering another run for the House in 2024—and maybe even a bid to unseat Democratic incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine.

Hung Cao, a Navy veteran, and Vietnamese refugee, didn’t win his 2022 race against Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton in Virginia’s newly redrawn 10th District. But after a surprise victory in Virginia’s GOP primary last spring, Cao mounted a stronger-than-expected campaign and became one of the top House GOP fundraisers in the country.

Winning the Northern Virginia suburb President Joe Biden carried by 18 points in 2020 was always going to be a challenge for a Republican. But Gov. Glenn Youngkin came within two points of winning it in 2021, giving Republicans hope that former GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock’s turf could flip red once more.

That hope wasn’t enough to carry Cao across the finish line: He lost by 6.6 points. 

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  1. Mturnerlandscapes

    Don't be so sure that a Republican can't win a Senate seat in Virginia. Ed Gillespie came awfully close to upsetting a popular Mark Warner in '14. https://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/virginia-senate-ed-gillespie-mark-warner-112631.

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    Andy Napoli

    I worked in the US House of Representatives from 1995-2005. I ran my boss' eastern half-of-his district campaign operation in 1996 and 1998, and ran the entire re-election campaign in 2000. I realize many things have changed in 23 years, but the fundamentals rarely change. Namely, it takes a significant amount of campaign infrastructure to run a successful campaign. Infrastructure in this context is very broad - it covers everything from donor lists, vendors you can trust, customized voter files, relationships built with various stakeholders, etc. Most first-time candidates lose because you're building all that infrastructure while simultaneously trying to win your race. It usually takes two shots (or three) to win a race because the first time, you don't have the needed infrastructure and team in place and by the time you've got the organization put together, you only have a few weeks (at best) to truly do what you wanted at the scale you wanted. On the other hand, a re-match gives somebody like Mr. Cao the opportunity to build on what he's created and leverage all those relationships and experiences to really give REP Wexton a run for her money. He gave her a scare but frankly Donald Trump blew it for many Republicans in 2022. I hope Mr Cao runs again for the US House and passes on a US Senate run. If he loses again for the US House, he should consider running for the State House because we need people like him in government.

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  3. J. Everett Schubert

    There's a big difference between a senator and a governor. Clearly, Vermont and Massachusetts have/continue to elect GOP governors, but there's no way either of them is sending a Republican to the Senate anytime in the foreseeable future.

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  4. Spepper222

    The thing is, Americans don't like cowards, esp. cowardly politicians, unless they successfully hide their cowardice in a pile of sweet-sounding words. So if you bought that line about "go to the gas pumps or to the grocery store" and that will prove that Biden is president then you missed the point. So while I'm sure there's a lot to like and admire about this guy, he still did not have the balls to just answer the question and tell the truth without eliding into some lib-dunking evasion.

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    David Hendrickson

    Wonderful to hear!

    (Also, in this paragraph:

    For now, Cao is serving as honorary chairman of a new political action committee called Unleash America, which plans to announce its fundraising team in a few weeks and aims to invest heavily this cycle in Republican candidates for state Senate and House of Delegate

    you need an "s." at the end.

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  6. Viges.Annette

    I've been wondering if a Republican can win a Senate seat in Michigan. It's been a long time since we've had one.

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    Ben Connelly

    I’d vote for him against Kaine.

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  8. Charles Bimba

    I live in VA-10. CAPT Cao has a lot to admire in a person. I was saddened when in a debate with Wexton he sold out Ukraine to the pro-Putin MAGA crowd.

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    Phil H

    Not so long ago, Virginia was a reliably red state, when I lived in the Northern Virginia suburbs of DC.

    But those dang Northern Virginians (aka, the "People's Republic") have tilted the state blue to the degree that Glenn Youngkin's election was big news.

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    Lchrisberg

    This kind of read like a People Magazine piece, not a The Dispatch piece. Note to author: When doing articles on relative unknowns, invest a significant amount of time on their policies and perspectives. We don't care about anecdotes from candidates we don't know.
    Other than he feels that inflation is the fault of Biden and that he is not an election denier, we know nothing of him having read this.

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      Phil H

      As fas as I'm concerned, he dodged the election denial issue, by pivoting to Biden's record. But he didn't say who was the rightful winner of the 2020 election.

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        John

        I noticed that as well. He should have said it plainly, if (I hope) that's what he thinks.

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        Lchrisberg

        Perhaps. If he is an election denier, that would certainly disqualify him in my book.

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          Eston

          Agreed, but it isn't enough to dodge the question to avoid "denying" the election. Any GOP candidate that I vote for has to affirm the election. The candidate can mumble about a few dead people voting in Chicago (as always), and perhaps about a few other statistically irrelevant irregularities, but must affirm positively the overall accuracy of the election, and the result.

          Ideally the candidate would thank Liz Cheney for her service on the election committee, but that may be hoping for more reason than can be found in aspiring candidates. Of course the value of showing such adult attitudes will diminish once Trump leaves the scene permanently.

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      3. Dhsavidge1

        That seems to be an epidemic among even the anti-Trump portion of the GOP. Steve Hayes interviewed Chris Sununu and the guy danced like Fred Astaire around whether he'd support Trump if he were the nominee. Larry Hogan did the same in a recent interview I believe with Sarah Longwell.

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          Kmregan7

          Oh man...not Larry Hogan too!

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          1. Dhsavidge1

            I know! I shed centrist tears.

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