China, Russia, and the Challenge Ahead

Xi might distance China from Putin’s war crimes, but it’s unlikely he’ll make a strategic break with Putin’s regime.

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When Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping met on the same day Beijing National Stadium hosted the Olympics’ opening ceremony, it wasn’t to brainstorm ideas for “promoting a peaceful society concerned with the preservation of human dignity,” as the Olympic Charter states. At the time, Putin was topping off his blood supplies for field hospitals the Russian army had raised in its final preparations for its assault on Ukraine. And Xi’s “army of western social media influencers” had kicked off its propaganda campaign to whitewash his regime’s massive human rights abuses.

Putin came away from that meeting with nearly $120 billion in new economic agreements, and Xi announced Putin as China’s junior partner in Beijing’s ongoing political, economic, and military campaign to reshape the global order. The Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development the two autocrats released after their meeting shows that China, under Xi, views Russian authoritarianism itself as a strategic asset and embodies the goal of Xi’s decade-long outreach to Moscow.      

On March 22, 2013, Xi arrived in Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin. It was Xi’s first foreign trip as China’s leader. “Xi’s choice of destination,” Reuters observed, “sent a signal to the United States that the world’s largest energy producer, Russia, and its biggest consumer, China, want to bolster their joint clout as a financial and geopolitical counterweight to Washington. 

Xi has been a good partner for Putin over the years. Beijing has provided diplomatic cover for Russian aggression, strengthened military ties, increased bilateral trade, and deepened technological and scientific engagement. 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Jason Gibson

    Pieces in place for Cold War II

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  2. Avatar photo
    Victor Clairmont

    I mean, it was leaked I believe that China wants to back Russia or at least not get in its way since when they decide to attack Taiwan they want Russia’s backing.

    So they (the CCP) are rooting behind the scenes for the tyrant to win in the Ukraine. They are also paying attention to the Western response and will adjust accordingly.

    But if I were the CCP right now watching what Europe is doing and the Rubble plummeting, I would be rethinking a lot of my strategy.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Probably Wrong

      Maybe. I can’t help but worry that the perception from Beijing is more like this:

      The West will sanction Putin because it costs them very little to do so, but they will not commit troops. They will send small amounts of weapons and hope that the Ukrainians can use them, but if Putin can take the territory, it will be his with no possibility of counterattack to drive him out. Russia may not weather the sanctions easily, but China could, and so, we have a green light. We just need to be sure that we can defeat Taiwan quickly, faster than the West can hype itself up to anger.

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      1. Awesome

        Or another lesson for Beijing, if they build up their nuclear arsenal to a few thousand warheads and start openly talking about the "nuclear option" no one will risk getting involved militarily in Taiwan.

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        1. Egal.Fabrice

          Putin thought the West was bluffing when we talked about massive sanctions. Turns out we weren't, and even the word "nuclear" didn't make us cower in fear. The US didn't blink in the face of the USSR, I don't see why China would be much more terrifying.

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  3. Avatar photo
    Chris L

    I still think that, although China would never break from Russia, it is inevitable that Russia will instead try to break from China. As Putin's paranoia and aggression are showing, Russia will not suffer being anyone's sidekick. But with their being isolated from the rest of the world, China is becoming their only refuge, and that is exactly what China wants (especially now that Belt and Road is falling apart). I imagine that Russian scientists and military will not exactly appreciate China claiming Russian technology as their own.

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    1. Avatar photo
      George.Skinner

      There's a certain irony in Putin's Russian becoming an isolated vassal of China much the same way as Putin has tried to do to Belarus and Ukraine.

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