China’s Middle East Power Play

A Beijing-brokered normalization deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia may lack staying power, but it signals China’s long-term strategy.

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Chinese President Xi Jinping is welcomed by Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud in Riyadh on December 8, 2022. (Photo by Royal Court of Saudi Arabia/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Saudi Arabia’s theatrical reception during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s December visit garnered plenty of attention. What didn’t was the most consequential aspect: Xi’s offer to mediate restored diplomacy between Saudi Arabia and longtime regional foe Iran. 

Xi’s proposal came to light Friday when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with top Iranian and Saudi Arabian officials in Beijing to unveil a normalization agreement between the adversaries. They now have two months to finalize the deal and reopen embassies in each other’s capitals, but the rapprochement’s full implementation—contingent on Iran’s good behavior—is far from assured. 

Saudi Arabia and Iran broke ties after Iranian protesters overran the Saudi embassy in response to Riyadh’s execution of a Shiite cleric in 2016, but sectarian differences, clashing allegiances, and Iranian proxy warfare have long marred their relationship.

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  1. Charleswchoate

    The 2nd to last paragraph is the most prudent aspect of this piece. I am of the opinion that the Saudis are using this as leverage against the US to concede to policies of their liking in the region.

    While time will only tell how this whole ordeal plays out, the Biden Administration's attitude and approach to relations with the Saudis has been lackluster at best. We can all agree Saudi Arabia is nowhere close to an ideal ally, but you have to play ball and be realistic when it comes to geopolitics.

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    DougAz

    Benjamin Netanyahu is a major loser here. He is moving past being a global pariah to worse. He's corrupt, racist, mean and divisive man.

    Why are we still friends with Saudi Arabia?
    They like Putin. Raise oil prices to hurt the West. And love Xi. Time to Sanction China.

    China a huge winner. Who else could deal with Iran.

    Well. I kinda smell a Jared Kushner Billion dollar deal in here...

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    MatthewRobin

    Does that mean our 3,000 troops in Saud Arabia and 2,000 troops in the UAE are mainly protecting and facilitating Middle East to Chinese oil flows? This is just another reason to support withdrawing these forces.

    https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/10/06/oil-dispute-prompts-call-remove-us-troops-saudi-arabia-uae.html

    Also, let's close down Al Udeid Air Force Base in Qatar, eliminate our naval base in Bahrain, and send those resources to United States Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM).

    Yes I know, United States Central Command (USCENTCOM) will not like me.

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      DougCLE

      Honestly, I’d be happy to cut ties with the Saudis. (Culturally, I think we would be a better fit with the Iranians, but that’s obviously off the table as long as the mullahs remain in power.) However, I don’t see a need to pull out of the rest of the M.E. just because we’re done with S.A. We still have serious, non-oil interests in the area.

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      1. Pohl

        Agree about not withdrawing from the region (crazy talk), except we still need to choose between the regional hegemons.

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      DougAz

      Absolutely agree

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  4. Allsoxs4488

    I can see how this is negative for the US, our waning power is creating a power vacuum and our number 1 competitor is filling it. There is some positive here as well though. The US wants stability in the Middle East and uninterrupted oil flows. This deal at least aims at both of those items. We have plenty of disagreements with China but here, at least at the top line, our interests are aligned.

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    JohnM.

    This was an excellent and informative read, Charlotte. Thanks very much for writing it.

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  6. CatoTheElder

    While the AUKUS deal gets lots of attention—and rightfully so—it’s no small potatoes, this Chinese involvement in Middle East international relations, especially when it involves Saudi Arabia and Iran. Are there three relatively powerful, generally amoral (in relations to outsiders) regimes that out strip these three in prominence, power, and potential for trouble-making? Doubtful, I think.

    The AUKUS thing has to be mentioned, thought about, etc., yes—but it’s Ms. Lawson’s piece here that significantly added to my awareness of global affairs today.

    Well, there’s also a piece in WaPo about how, due to efforts from US-based concerns, major sporting goods companies (and others) are moving away from use of kangaroo leather, “to save the roos”. Which, by most reasonable measures, are doing well. There are more kangaroos in Australia than there are humans. Kangaroos aren’t generally “farmed” but are instead hunted. The most clearly tear-jerking aspect is the killing of joeys found in the pouches of harvested females. That bit of unpleasantness is trumped up by the usual suspects, of course. Most of whom apparently don’t give nearly as much thought to what happens to roos when they overpopulate an area. Slow death by starvation isn’t pleasant, either. It’s interesting to imagine what things here in the US might be like if our native white-tailed deer were marsupials.

    PS: Yeah, I wandered into the weeds. It happens.

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      DougAz

      😄

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    Chris L

    I nearly spat out my coffee at the concept of China, Saudi Arabia, and Iran signing-on to an agreement vowing against intervention in each other's domestic affairs. Thank you for today's funnies.

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    1. Pohl

      Yeah, China is a long way off from having a diplomatic “win.” No one is impressed by this or their plan for Ukraine. It is hard to act the benign power on the world stage when we’ve seen their record-breaking, bravura run as the villain at home.

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    Earl King

    So while China’s Belt and Road initiative may not have produced results, it may be the Chinese have found a bit of foreign relations formula that might get desired results.

    How many people hate Tom Brady solely due to his winning 7 Super Bowls? Being number #1 in anything produces an anger in people. I have no idea why...but the same phenomenon hits Tiger as well. Some people just don’t like others who win or do well. The US has been accused for almost as long as I remember of being a bully. Central and South Americans countries resent and resented US interference. As far as I can tell our CIA stopped overthrowing government 40 or 50 years ago. I could be wrong but Daniel Ortega is still in office. I guess the last time overt influence was used was the invasion of Panama.

    It doesn’t take a genius to understand that the US has largely had a policy of non engagement in South America due to the resentments during the cold war and heavy handed CIA involvement. We don’t have US businessmen crawling over South America to buy up mines or any other resources. It really seems as if the US ignores South America and Africa. China has made a calculated guess that 2nd and 3rd world countries would rather make deals with China rather than the US. Someone please explain to me why we don’t have an Americas Trade pact?

    The US has been focused on the Middle East mostly for the last 40 or 50 years due to muslim extremism and oil that lubricates and fuels the global marketplace. China is simply doing what we used to do. These countries may not care who rules China or the genocide they are committing. It’s just business. In the absence of a US commitment to do business....power abhors a vacuum. Since we left it wide open China walked thru.

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      DougAz

      Exactly! America didn't care either. We supported brutal murdering dictators all over the world. Saddam Hussein. Shah of Iran. Clearly today Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu is closer to them than us. South America. SE Asia.

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