Donald Trump Stole Their Republican Party. They Want to Take It Back.

On the Lincoln Project and Republican Voters Against Trump—and their differing approaches to winning over Trump-skeptical conservatives.

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Twenty percent of Donald Trump’s own voters four years ago held an unfavorable opinion of the man as they cast their ballot for him on Election Day, according to exit polls. Sixteen percent said they would feel “concerned” or “scared” if he won, and 29 percent viewed him as dishonest. A recent Gallup survey found the GOP shrinking dramatically in size this year alone: 47 percent of respondents identified as Republicans or Republican-leaners in January; just 39 percent did in July. The Gary Johnson-led Libertarian ticket received a record 4.5 million votes in 2016—3.2 million more than Johnson won in 2012—in large part due to the unpopularity of both Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

These are the voters being targeted by two super PACs launched this year—Republican Voters Against Trump (RVAT) and the Lincoln Project—in the hopes of making Donald Trump a one-term president. And with Trump’s margin of victory in 2016 coming down to about 80,000 votes in three states, it just might work.

“This is a massive group,” said Tim Miller, political director for RVAT and longtime GOP operative who most recently worked for Jeb Bush’s 2016 presidential campaign. “You can’t win primaries with that group, that’s true. But in a general election like this, you’re talking about 15 to 20 million voters. And that is the difference between Trump winning a narrow electoral college victory and losing in a Reaganesque landslide.”

The Trump campaign proclaims not to be fazed. “This is the swamp—yet again—trying to take down the duly elected President of the United States,” spokeswoman Erin Perrine told The Dispatch. “President Trump is the leader of a united Republican Party where he has earned 94 percent of Republican votes during the primaries—something any former president of any party could only dream of.” (Trump did win 94 percent of the vote in his primary against former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld, but several state GOPs canceled their contests entirely, citing precedent established under previous incumbent presidents.)

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  1. Avatar photo
    David Eggleston

    The difference between the Lincoln Project and RVAT is that Weaver, Schmidt, and Wilson would be trumpeting the glories of The Donald from the rooftops if he’d hired them.

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    Mkapnick

    Great article Declan. I am a contributor to the Lincoln Project and I have now listened to two conversations on The Dispatch podcast as well as a discussion between Bill Kristol and Charlie Sykes on the Bulwark podcast and read David's article among others. I told David French and I will say again David makes a persuasive case against LP and in favor of RVAT. So much so that I seriously considered cancelling my monthly contribution to LP and switching it to RVAT. Ultimately, however, I have concluded I really don't trust this version of the Republican Party to be responsible with power. To be sure I don't want the Dems too have too much power either but unless they get rid of the legislative filibuster, which I don't think they will have the votes for, nothing too radical will pass the Senate in my view. Moreover, except for Justin Amash and Mitt Romney, I have found the behavior of Republican office holders to be repugnant. I won't miss Susan Collins or Corey Gardner or Martha McSalley or Lindsey Graham if he loses (who I use to really like btw) or the other Senators targeted by LP. Its not like LP is going after all of the Republican Senators running in 2020 (at least I have not seen ads targeting Ben Sasse and the like). And its not like if the Dems go hog wild one can't reverse course and try and flip the senate back in 2022. In any event, its been a spirited conversation and a respectful one between the LP supporters and the RVAT supporters and I find that at least to be refreshing.

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    Angie

    good job Declan, I enjoyed it

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    Dina

    Excellent piece, Declan--best I've read on the subject yet. I cannot imagine that the Republican Party can be salvaged in any way that will make me want to rejoin; it appears damaged beyond repair. I hope (fantasize, really) that a new party of the center will arise that will attract moderates from both sides.

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    Bill Nelson

    None of this makes any difference. The election will be lost by Trump because he can’t be anything else. The only way he can win is if Biden publicly collapses. Biden can hide in his basement and win.

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  6. Avatar photo
    AMI

    great article Declan,
    I am enjoying the work both these groups do and think that its strategically important to have multiple avenues to get the message out about how abhorrent trump is. It seems to me they are targeting different audiences for different purposes, it's probably a mis service to both groups to try and compare or critique through the same lens. I love watching the LP videos, after being gaslight for the last 5 years by trump and his enablers, its fascinating watching them meltdown as they get trolled.

    I think it would be good if more people understood and could see examples of how trump gaslights us all and how the main stream media have no way to stop it and fall victim every time. its a diabolic (yet sadly brilliant) technique that any person with a 'normal' amount of shame and honesty could never use.

    keep up the great work at the Dispatch

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    lotus-eater_77

    I find this concerning and the intellectual depth smacks of the kiddy pool if it isn’t dishonest:

    “And we need two liberal parties in this country debating each other. If there’s only going to be one liberal party, and that party’s policies are going to be progressive, then so be it. We can’t have an authoritarian party in this country, and there has to be a political price to pay for the senators who have let Trump run amok. … It’s the nuttiness of the Republican Party, more than anything else, that’s going to achieve the implementation of a progressive agenda in this country.”

    A stance against authoritarianism is certainly welcome but the idea that unopposed progressivism won’t skew authoritarian is dubious at best.

    If these people are conservatives and not just Republicans, they may also want to consider the policy outcomes from a progressive sweep. The legislation that the last united Democratic government passed has proven to be very sticky. Even a more cohesive and consistent approach from a chastened Republican government in 2024 may struggle to roll back what Biden, Schumer, and Pelosi are able to push through.

    It would probably be wiser to define what an acceptable Republican should look like and then work on holding a Republican majority Senate to that standard while it is pumping the brakes on Biden and Pelosi.

    The GOP certainly needs to get its house in order but burning it down probably isn’t the best way to get there. The fact that Dem donors are handing them the matches and the gas can should probably give them pause.

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    1. Avatar photo
      J.R.

      In my view the difference is the demonstrated nationalist and authoritarian bent of Tumpism, vs the predicted authoritarian or socialist bent of Bidenism. On one hand, we'll get some progressive policies we don't like (though I certainly don't buy they'll be any more damaging than previous progressive eras), but I find it hard to argue with the visible and continuing damage the current administration is doing through incompetence and cronyism.

      I also think that the argument that conservatives can somehow hold the Republican party at large to a conservative standard has been attempted; it's how we wound up here in the first place. If your only goal is protecting the Senate majority or Republican party power, then you'll necessarily be diluting conservatism with everything you don't want. I'd much rather argue for the previously shared position that we should defend conservative Senators, but that preserving the majority by compromising conservative values should have nothing to do with it.

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      1. Avatar photo
        lotus-eater_77

        I appreciate your perspective. I think reasonable people can estimate different levels of problematic progressive policy in an all Democratic scenario. My concern stems more from the persistence of those policies once enacted.

        Some policies in those progressive eras were indeed damaging (see Wilson, Woodrow) but the bulk of the most egregious were eventually rolled back, so perhaps that was your point. To be clear, I don’t foresee apocalypse if the Republicans lose the Senate, just a very difficult time putting Humpty Dumpty back together again.

        I too detest Trump’s nationalism but it is sometimes hard to discern from the left’s socialism. We’re agreed on authoritarianism of any stripe being detestable.

        I grant you your point about the inability of the GOP to hold candidates to account for the lack of conservative bona fides. I just think that is always going to be an ongoing concern that we’re better served to address without the progressives running the country.

        Finally, although I’m sure we would agree on conservative values and the desirability of our representatives modeling and promoting them, perhaps we differ in that I see the political realm as a separate but related sphere from the intellectual one. Politics will always involve compromise though it shouldn’t compromise values. All that said, I’m sure we agree Trump is a bridge too far.

        Thanks again for sharing your perspective.

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          J.R.

          Thanks for the thoughtful response; I think we agree on quite a bit. That is my worry, that the erosion and intentional undermining of democratic institutions (and government) will be much harder to undo than any specific policies.

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            lotus-eater_77

            Well said. I think the real shame here is that the control of the now awesome power of the Federal Government commands this much sturm und drang. If we lived on Earth 2.0 and invested all that money in local policy, maybe my kids could go back to school in the Fall at an institution that wasn’t literally and figuratively bankrupt.

            Thanks again for the dialogue.

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  8. Nathan

    I’ll be making a video for them. I’m concerned the church has become a political arm for him and his cult like following has invaded the church. I miss hearing about Jesus, not Jesus/Trump. I’ll be doing research show what damage is being done.

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    Paul Montagu

    The Lincoln Project was fine in their opposition to Trump, but they lost me in their express support for Biden and other Democrats. RVAT is doing it right.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Victor Clairmont

      Right, there's a people that line up more so with David French on this I think in conservatives circles. How many? I have no idea.

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  10. Mimi

    Just excellent in-depth reporting! Thank you

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    1. Avatar photocircle-angle-nib
      Declan Garvey vertical-nib Author

      Thank you, Mimi!

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