What Will Putin Do With Kherson?

Russian forces captured the city early on, but keeping it requires resources they might prefer to use elsewhere.

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Until a few weeks ago, Russian propaganda about the occupied city of Kherson was generally positive. Victory for Russian forces was assured. Statues of Lenin were going up. There were some pro-Ukrainian protests in the city, and some activity from Ukrainian partisans, but this was all just the final gasps of the dying project of Ukraine. Would Kherson be part of Russia, or part of a Russian-controlled Ukraine? The question was a relatively small one that could wait till the war was over.

Recently, however, a note of worry, or even disguised panic has creeped into the official statements and reports about the region. Pro-Russian activists in Kherson have been waiting a while for the war to end and for their fate to get decided. It has been more than 80 days since Putin massively expanded his invasion of Ukraine, but Russian forces have stalled or even totally retreated. Putin’s new offensive in Donbas is continuing, but it is continuing slowly, and there are reports that even this limited offensive is starting to peter out due to a lack of reserves. If there is not going to be any quick resolution and if Russia won’t subdue Ukraine, where does that leave Kherson? 

A look at the map should show you why pro-Russian and Russian locals are worried. They fear, rightly, that the city of Kherson is a white elephant for Russia. It was a big deal when Russia captured this large city so early in the war, but that was back when Russia was still planning to destroy the Kyiv regime and march all the way to Odesa at least. 

Now Kherson is a large, exposed Russian-occupied city right close to the frontlines. It is nice to have as a symbol, but it probably is not worth the trouble to keep it. Russia is surely expending resources to defend it, and with Russia struggling in Donbas, those resources are probably increasingly limited. Kherson is situated on the flat plain at the mouth of the Dnieper river, and the Ukrainian units are just 10-20 miles away, with only flat difficult-to-defend terrain in between. 

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    Here’s hoping Ukraine retakes Kherson.

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    Andy Napoli

    The conclusion of this excellent piece is a good reason why the stated argument of 'NATO expansion is a threat to Russia' is such total nonsense. It's the *mere existence of a free, independent Ukraine* that is the mortal threat to Russian revanchist ambitions. Russia can't get the stooges it needs, while there is a healthy, independent and free Ukraine next door.

    The possibility of NATO providing protection to a free, independent Ukraine is a dilemma to those Russian revanchist ambitions, because joining NATO would put Ukraine theoretically under the West's nuclear umbrella.

    The unstated assumption behind John Mearshemer and his fellow "realist" Russophiles is that it's the West's obligation to just hand over Ukraine's sovereignty to the Russians to do with as they please. Apparently, "Realist" foreign policy "experts" really don't mean two-way realism. They just mean bowing and scraping to our authoritarian geopolitical foes. Apparently it's a grave violation of "realism" to actually make the other guy have to work hard to conquer his neighbors and kill innocent people with impunity. Imposing costs on the other guy is not "realistic." We're only supposed to worry about what THEY might do to US. It's totally outrageous to make THEM worried about US.

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    Matt J

    Delaying any referendum until the end of the "special operation" is pretty optimistic. The latest tally is that Russia has lost one third of its initial invasion force. That's insane. The only reason they circumvented their original invasion's culmination was by cutting their ambitions in half. Now, every day they have less forces and weapons, while Ukraine's supply of weapons has only grown. Ukrainian troops are already knocking on Kherson's door - if you want my guess, once the Donbas offensive fails, Kherson will be Ukraine's next target. The Russians need to sue for peace immediately. Every day they wait, their grip on Ukraine gets looser and looser.

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    El Duderino

    How ironic would it be if, at the end of hostilities, Russia is forced to evacuate the Crimean peninsula. It has been an unmitigated disaster for Russia, first having its military exposed as a paper tiger (bear?), losing the PR war, its economy becoming heavily dependent on the goodwill of a nation it has no history of shared relations with (China), and not having yet accomplished any of its war aims with any sort of concrete certainty. I know schadenfreude is popular right now, but you have to feel bad for them in some small way, the level of ineptitude on display is at once both highly amusing and equally appalling.

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    1. Avatar photo
      MatthewRobin

      I am happy readers of The Dispatch are considering what the Ukrainian end game will look like. My article from last week should provide some additional context.

      https://infraredline.substack.com/p/warzone-ukraine-defining-victory

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      1. Avatar photo
        Mark B

        Interesting article. You seem to be rhetorically granting the legitimacy of both the the "independent republics" and the Crimean annexation. Are you doing that as nod to the real politic facts on the ground or is there an argument that those designations are and should be viewed as legitimate on their own merits?

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          MatthewRobin

          It's a nod to the political facts on the ground. My point of using those terms is to differentiate how Russia views those territories.

          I expect Russia to contemplate the use of nuclear weapons to defend what Russia claims to be their territory. This is why I mentioned that the Russian government's subtle threat to use nuclear weapons to defend their control of Crimea.

          I may use a different term than "independent republics" to describe the DNR and LNR. Of course they are not "independent", but it does matter that Russia does not consider these territories part of Russia proper.

          For example, South Ossetia is one of those "independent republics" located within the country of Georgia. South Ossetia recently announced that they will hold a referendum to join the Russian federation. I do not think that Russia would threaten nuclear weapons to defend South Ossetia pre-referendum. I absolutely think they will post-referendum.

          https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/georgia-south-ossetia-calls-for-referendum-to-join-russia/ar-AAXfuk5

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      Mark B

      From my completely inexpert perspective that seems at least semi-likely. I'm worried about what a humiliated, isolated, but otherwise intact Russia with a chip on it's shoulder does on the world stage 10-20 years out from the conclusion of this episode.

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      1. Avatar photo
        PaulH

        I agree that a defeated Russia will remain dangerous for many years, but what is the choice? Even more dangerous would be a triumphalist, energized Russia looking for its next target after defeating Ukraine.

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        1. Avatar photo
          Mark B

          I agree with you hope we continue to fully support Ukraine to a complete victory. I think some people are a little too excited to rub the Russian’s noses in It though.

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      Rjosephpaquette

      I completely agree. Russia and Putin can't come out ahead. The world won't let it--the number of nations lined up against Russia on this is just too many. I don't think the 2014 incursion will not be allowed to stand. Putin has failed, and is going to lose; it's just sad that so many will die till he figures out a way to pull back.

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