Coup to Form

An inept putsch attempt mirrors the ineptitude of Russia’s war.

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Members of the Wagner Group prepare to depart from the Southern Military District's headquarters and return to their base in Rostov on June 24, 2023. (Photo by Arkady Budnitsky/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Watching capital-E Events unfold this weekend brought to mind two titans of the 20th century.

“Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma,” Winston Churchill once said. Rational analysis of why members of the siloviki behave as they do will get you only so far before it founders on the inscrutability of private grudges, secret alliances, and collective psychopathy.

The other titan was Casey Stengel, who went from managing baseball’s greatest dynasty in the 1950s to overseeing the historically terrible New York Mets in their first season in 1962. Vexed by a team of has-beens and never-was-es bumbling their way around the diamond, Stengel wondered, “Can’t anybody here play this game?”

My attempts to understand The Putsch That Wasn’t alternate between those modes of thinking. There must be a logical explanation for why Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin would mobilize thousands of his men to invade Russia and threaten Moscow—only to decide “nah” and turn back a few hours outside the capital. But when you’re working off highly incomplete information, as we amateur Kremlinologists are, you’re destined to feel confounded. Riddle, mystery, enigma.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Normb1442

    As has often been said in election analyses, you cannot beat somebody with nobody. It's nice to believe that the reception accorded the rebels in Rostov signals that the Russian public will support a regime change. But that's not enough. There needs to be a SOMEBODY ready to take over and with at least SOME apparatus to do so.

    Leon Trotsky, I believe it was, once said of the November Revolution, "political power was lying in the streets; we picked it up." Those circumstances may indeed exist in Russia today, BUT... The Bolsheviks had the will to seize power and a disciplined party machinery to replace the hapless Kerensky government. Is there an equivalent in Russia today? Those who have openly opposed Putin are, for the most part, in jail. The oligarchs are what they are because he has protected them; will they turn on him now?

    If it comes from anywhere, it will have to be if several oligarchs decide the time has come to move on from Putin. And we have no way at all of knowing if that's even possible.

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  2. Scianti7

    It could be any of the theories. I think Prigozhin wanted to show how weak Shoigu & Gerasimov were, & he did & then got close to Moscow & things didn't look how he had figured for whatever reason or multiple reasons. He was careful not to speak against Putin, but perhaps realized that didn't matter.

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  3. James Morphew

    Great thoughtful summary from Mr. Catoggio, including his admittance that we all know very little about what really occurred.

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    George.Skinner

    We’re probably missing a lot of information that might make more sense of what happened this weekend. Why didn’t anybody take any decisive action against Wagner on their drive? Why was Putin flying to St Petersburg? Why did Belarus intercede?

    Some of this may become more clear in the next few weeks or months. I’d guess it was probably a coup where other elements of the government refused to commit and the whole thing fell apart. The problem with an authoritarian regime that’s been constantly weeding out anybody with a hint of ambition is you end up with a passive and indecisive bureaucracy that can’t and won’t make any decisions. Both Prigozhin and Putin may have found out that nobody would do anything until they saw how things were going to shake out. That meant nobody rallied to Priogozhin or Putin.

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  5. Belisarius.Aves

    Not a fan of the Czar (Tsar?) reference to Putin. The Czars, in their Romanov incarnation for example, ruled not just by military or secret police (though later that a part) but of divine right of having been purportedly fathered by the previous monarch. Legitimacy to rule came from the ruling family and a quasi religious confirmation just as it did for Bourbons, the Hohenzollerns, the Habsburgs and the Hanovers (whose descendants now make silly Netflix documentaries and write tell all books). Putin is not Peter the Great or or even Czar Paul. He is Carlo Gambino with nukes.

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  6. Sjsarich

    Two points that Putin cannot ignore. One. The stand down of Russian military personnel & their leaders as Prigozhin marched into Rosov and beyond. Two. The locals in Rostov & surrounding areas treated Wagner troops & Prigozhin as something akin to liberators.
    The optics of these two points plus the ease in which Wagner downed five helicopters & a flying command post is further proof of Putin’s Potemkin military. The loss of 13 airmen leaves Putin with little choice but to respond violently or risk what limited support he has with the military.

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  7. Avatar photo
    Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

    I wonder if Prigozhin has been giving himself trace amounts of Polonium 210, similar to the Dread Pirate Roberts use of Iocaine powder? 🧐. ‘Cause I suspect he’s gonna run through food tasters very quickly now. Might be a good use of deserters.

    I am not a gambler, but if I were, I would definitely take out a life insurance policy on Prigozhin. 1 year term ought to be reasonably priced! 😵‍💫.

    I cannot imagine Putin tolerating Prigozhin continuing to live after this past weekend.

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  8. Jfan

    I wonder whether one day we'll learn that this was the result of a silly foul-up and miscommunication, the way the Berlin Wall fell because a few border guards got confused by an ambiguous announcement by a sloppy official.

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  9. Trichwages

    Interesting theory.

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  10. Billy Zammit

    There wasn't really a coup, per se. Prigozhin didn't have any political agenda, he just wanted Wagner to maintain its independence. Putin, being a dumbass, reacted by going on TV and calling Prigozhin a traitor who should be put to death, thus backing Prigozhin into a corner. A civil war would have started had Lukashenko not intervened and offered for Prigozhin to move Wagner to Belarus.

    But now Putin's regime has been exposed for the hollow shell that it is. It's only a matter of time before some other disgruntled power player makes a move to take over Russia and whoever that person ends up being is likely to be far more dangerous than Putin ever was.

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    1. Scianti7

      I tend to think those with private personal armies are more likely to produce putcomes in a takeover. Is there someone else in Russia that has one?

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    2. Avatar photo
      Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

      This is why I am not a big fan of regime change, there’s no guarantee the next leader won’t be worse.

      I am not a supporter of Putin, But there is no guarantee. The next Ruler will be any better. And there is still plenty of room for him to be worse. Only way to avoid that is the way I don’t want to go, which is to invade Russia and govern it ourselves. That would make Afghanistan look splendid.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Thomas Grimmer

        I'm no conservative, but I take seriously their analyses of culture and institutions as defining characteristics of the prosperity of nation states. It seems to me that Russia is huffing the fumes off of more powerful and competent predecessors, and even a more competent leader isn't necessarily going to reform enough of all levels of society enough to "truly" be threatening. They're foundering against a nation that's smaller, poorer, weaker, and at least as corrupt (as you love to point out).

        Really, the only issue is nukes. If that's what you mean by a worse leader, sure, but I'm still not convinced that won't be Putin's endgame. Russia conventionally against its neighbors would continued to get stomped.

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        1. Avatar photo
          Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

          When I talk about worst, I’m not talking about governance. I’m talking more bloodthirsty, more cruel, more willing to kill.

          Sadly, I fear Putin isn’t the worst Russia could have. There’s room for worse. Plus if he is toppled, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Hunger Games fight break out among would be leaders trying to take over.

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      2. Dougrhon

        If the next regime decides not to keep invading Ukraine that would strike me as an improvement.

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        1. Billy Zammit

          yeah, but... i dunno...

          The one positive quality that Putin has is that he is bad at what he does. As long as Putin is in charge, Russia isn't a credible threat to seize any more Ukrainian territory. But if the nationalists in the army or the air force take over, then, woah boy, look out. They'd be even more belligerent and a hell of a lot better at it

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          1. Dougrhon

            Au contraire. Putin is actually very good at what he does. He has played an extremely weak hand in terms of actual power against consecutive American presidents for the entire century. In this particular case he erred by biting off more than he can chew but nevertheless appears firmly entrenched in power. I dont think its possible for the Russian Army to do better than its doing. It would be a good thing for world order if a dictator who invades a neighbor loses power as a result.

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      3. Dlwondercheck

        Yeah. Been tried a couple of times. Turned out badly.

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