No Confidence

Getting nervous about Biden 2024.

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308
President Joe Biden holds a press conference with Prime Minister of Australia Anthony Albanese in the Rose Garden at the White House on October 25, 2023. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

On Wednesday afternoon, while most of America’s media was consumed by war in the Middle East and the election of a new House speaker, we nerds of the Dispatch staff were chattering internally about … a super PAC memo.

According to the memo, new data from the Rust Belt battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin placed Joe Biden and Donald Trump in a dead heat at 50 percent each. Among voters who dislike both candidates, Trump led by 3 points. In 2020, Biden won that cohort by 6.

Read that again. Among voters who hold negative opinions of Biden and of a guy who’s been charged with 91 felonies and whose last major act as a public servant was trying to stage a coup, Biden is behind.

Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin accounted for 46 electoral votes in 2020, supplying the margin of victory. The unmistakable takeaway from the memo was that if Democrats proceed to renominate the president, they’re at dire risk of losing the White House to the political equivalent of the Joker.

What made this interesting to participants in the Dispatch Slack channel was that the memo didn’t come from one of Trump’s super PACs. It came from one of Biden’s.

Why on earth would a pro-Biden shop release such discouraging numbers, one staffer wondered? Normally when a candidate’s PAC leaks polling data, it’s aimed at nudging his campaign to focus on wooing a particular slice of the electorate. This memo felt more like an argument to pull the plug altogether.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    President of California… California Uber Alles

    You’re right. That voter description does sound familiar. Yes, if it’s Newsom, I’m writing in Lysander Spooner or John Galt. But, no, my vote was never really up for grabs anyway. If it’s Orange Man v. Uncle Sleepy, I’m probably writing in Kevin Williamson.

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    JDW

    I'm a solid NO! on Trump. I live in West Virginia at the moment and as such my vote won't matter much. If Trump loses WV, he has lost the election anyway. If my vote mattered, I'd hold my nose for Biden. Since it does not I will write in someone.

    I'm concerned about the Republicans who want an excuse to vote for Trump who didn't last time. They may decide the election. If Biden can be demonized enough they may feel justified even with Trump's faults. I know better but remember they want to vote Republican real bad.

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    Mandy B.

    I don't care how antediluvian Biden is. I will eat my grandmother's ashes before I will vote for tRump.

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  6. Viges.Annette

    I'm tired of hearing Michigan as a rust belt state. When was the last time you were here?
    It's a tiring old dated term.

    I live in West Michigan and there is continus building of apartments, houses and new business buildings. My brother lives on the east side north of Detroit. There is a lot of growth in his area and good things happening in Detroit. Maybe it's time you visit Michigan to see how dated that term is.

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    Sad Trombone

    On one level I know I'm too optimistic, but I still really, really want to see Trump as the redneck's Farrakhan; they tell pollsters they support him because they've tuned out his opposition for the time being, and they know saying they support Trump drives every squat to pee librul into outer space.

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  8. Jack H Wolf

    Dean Phillips is now running and I will support him. His politics I estimate from reading his rating with Progressive Punch which parses out stuff that the further left like, and they rate him 174th of the 219 which puts him on the conservative side of the Democratic center. Being the son of a whiskey magnate and grandson of Dear Abby, he can offer voters a shot and some advice.

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    1. Dadgum41

      Sorry, dood. Good whiskey loving and good manners ain't hereditary.

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    Theirnscott

    The impact of "the Dispatch bloc" would depend on the distribution of its voters. For example, a significant base of said voters in a "swing" state might make a difference. Unfortunately, while definitely a swing state, Georgia might not have a significant "Dispatch bloc." You see, we haven't had one of those coveted Dispatch parties.

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  10. Ricardo Denis

    Newsom said “ Despite our major differences, California is committed to stopping the greatest existential threat our planet has ever known.” He meant climate change but he was standing next to the actual threat: Xi himself.

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