The Normalcy Candidate

The political peril of linking Ukraine and Israel.

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U.S. President Joe Biden addresses the nation from the Oval Office of the White House on October 19, 2023 in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Jonathan Ernst - Pool/Getty Images)

I don’t like to criticize anyone for doing the right thing.

And what follows isn’t criticism, really, just an observation about the agonizing position in which the president and his administration suddenly find themselves. Joe Biden has behaved admirably in supporting Israel and Ukraine against two distinct flavors of fascist irredentism. It’s just hard to see how it ends well for him politically.

I hope you enjoyed your break from Eeyore yesterday because today he’s back and gloomier than ever.

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  1. Deleted Comment

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  2. Dougrhon

    I take issue with a few things. America is not "entering another conflict". All The US needs to do is continue to help Israel replace it's Iron Dome equipment and provide diplomatic support and cover when the vipers at teh UN try to save Hamas. Next, it's absurd to compare Israel's battle to destroy Hamas, a terrorist group running a tiny statelet with Ukraine attempting to repeal an invasion by a much larger and more powerful country. Ukraine NEEDS western advanced weaponry and a green light to use it to have chance at repelling the invasion. Israel just needs the world to STFU and let it act. Israel's effort will take months. The reason is because Israel will not do what the US did in Iraq or other places and simply level the place. Israel will make as strong an effort as possible to avoid civilian deaths while ensuring Hamas doesn't have a way to claim they "won." As they did each time Israel moved in over the past 15 years. The fact that you think Israel is incapable of or will struggle to accomplish this shows the extent to which NEtanyahu and company have allowed Israeli deterrence to slide.

    On a separate note how on earth can anyone in the American State Department or anywhere else witness the wanton slaughter of 1300 people, threaten to resign when the US stands with Israel not even two weeks after the slaughter, and not see themselves as evil? That I don't get.

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  3. Indisguise

    Cheer up man. If your doing the right thing that's enough.

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  5. Stevenreedcurtis

    I'm not a swing voter since I've never voted Dem after close to 50 years voting.
    Biden will receive my vote if it's Trump vs Biden. California Democrats? Local, congressional? No.

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  6. Jfan

    In this essay Allahpundit's political analysis finally rises to the level of Michael Barone's. If Nick can keep this up he will be the foremost analyst in America.

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  7. John

    I’ve read many comments on various right wing sites that are appalled that we could have a president who was unable to tie his shoes, was incapable of completing a sentence, was unable to walk without falling down and on and on. He’s a simple oaf unable to perform any function.
    I think he’s doing well in a very difficult situation. He actually seems to know stuff. Maybe someday historians will look upon him as a good leader and president. Just a thought

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  8. Brandon Hartley

    It seems like this column hangs a lot on the belief that turning out the base is always better than appealing to independents. I'm not so sure about that. I've voted R for much of my life, but had to pull for Clinton in 2016 and I've been voting Dem ever since. I would love, LOVE, to vote for essentially anyone other than Trump or Ramaswamy (I'd have to think long and hard about the spineless-bend-over-to-radicalism-for-political-efficacy Desantis option). Biden's behavior over the last year and a half makes me much more comfortable voting for him and pumping him for all of my friends. Will we wind being more or less numerous than the base voters Biden could lose? I dunno.

    The most immediate explanation, I think, Catoggio would agree with. Biden's dug himself into a hole with the Iran and Afghan withdrawal debacles. So he needs to put on the war-monger hat to help turn some of that around. I'm not considering the whole "he may honestly believe this" angle here, not because it's not true (it very well might be, huzzah if so), but just to keep it in the realm of political strategy for the moment.

    Is there another possibility, though? It seems to me the two big parties are in a moment of huge political realignment. Dems are going from having some credit with the poor working class to being almost exclusively the rich well-educated urban elite party. Republicans are proudly frog-marching toward anti-immigration, anti-capitalism populism. They seem to have thrown the conservative strong foreign policy ideology into the nearest crapper, so is it absurd to think that Dems might wind up trying to pick up that gauntlet?

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    1. Hikingguy

      I'm not so sure it's absurd. Before we were involved in WWII, the political scene was weirdly reminiscent of today. The Republicans were isolationist, generally. So were many of the Democrats. The voters were dead set against another round of foreign wars. Yet overseas fascism was on the move. FDR saw it for what it was, but it took months of careful politicking before he brought country with him. Had the Japanese not attacked us, I doubt we would have gone in at all. While the UK was on the ropes and Lend-Lease was necessary to keep them afloat even Democrats like Sen. Burton K Wheeler were accusing FDR of warmongering and going after any attempts to aid the Brits. So FDR came up with the slogan: Arsenal of Democracy. And Lend-Lease passed. The Allies could not have won without it. I can certainly see Biden running with arsenal of democracy. Because we are. Still.

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        Kahster

        That was a very interesting insight. Thanks for sharing. 🙏

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  9. Jenaigoss

    I'm giving Biden a second look now, and I'd consider myself a staunch conservative and classic liberal (not MAGA populist psuedo-conversative.)

    Normally I would never consider voting for a democratic candidate. Abortion was the biggest litmus test for me - if they can't even support the most helpless among humans, how can they be trusted among other issues? I've never voted for a Democratic candidate for president in my life. I used to, before the rise of MAGA, primarily vote for the most conservative candidate in any race except ones where it didn't matter (like state treasurers) and the Democrat had better credentials and seemed less kooky.

    But now? The Republican party is a dumpster fire, and that's insulting to dumpster fires. The populist portion of the base is running bad candidates who can't govern, have no decorum, and care only for their own political prospects. I might vote for Nikki Haley, but in the very possible scenario where Trump or De Santos is the nominee, I may actually vote for Biden.

    For all his flaws, he is the normalcy candidate. He seems to have at least some moral fiber to do what he thinks is right, regardless of political harm to himself. He isn't rushing to push through every leftist dream package with the 'power of the pen.' He at least seems to understand that America has to at least attempt diplomacy with other nations and it isn't all about stoking his own ego. Unemployment is staying low.

    So...he's getting me to take a look, when even a year ago I would have never considered it.

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    1. Indisguise

      I gave up on the GOP years ago even if I didn't admit it to myself. It's sad isn't it. Now I vote for the party of AOC. For national security and freedom. Next I'll have a rainbow flag

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    2. Jfan

      I think a write-in vote is more helpful than voting for a Democrat. If you vote for a Democrat then your motive will not be clear, but a write-in vote for a candidate who clearly stands for your principles -- Cheney, perhaps -- will make clear what politicians must do to win your vote. Of course one vote will not get significant attention, but the same is true of giving Biden one more vote out of more than eighty million. Ralph Nader's success in 2000 moved the Democrats, and hence the country, far to the left, because the Democrats resolved to do whatever they had to do to win over those voters. The Left is far stronger today than it would be if Gore had won the presidency and they were taken for granted.

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      1. Indisguise

        A write in vote is in the cards for me in 2028.

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      2. Hikingguy

        If you want to kill Trumpism, a string of Republican defeats is the only way. Write-ins are a waste of time. MAGAts are not going to be impressed with your write-in.

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        1. Jfan

          If it comes down to your vote, then a write-in vote has 50% as much chance of causing a Republican defeat as a vote for Biden.

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    3. Christopher Lake

      Jenaigoss, you're not alone in the thoughts expressed in your comment. I am pro-life too, and at least as long as I've been a conservative (since my mid-twenties), I have never been able, in good conscience, to vote for a pro-choice politician. I voted mostly Republican until 2106, even though sometimes, I was a disgruntled Republican, having quarrels with my own Party, for various reasons. (Among other things, I believe that being pro-life extends to *much more* than just being anti-abortion, although that *is* a crucial part of it.) In any event, from the beginning, voting for Trump was never even an option in my mind, so I went third-Party in 2016, and I don't regret that vote. I also don't regret my third-Party vote for President in 2020, particularly in light of the terrible events of 1/6/21, which happened not very far from where I live, just outside of D.C.

      I was very happy to support Larry Hogan, a Republican, for governor in my deep-blue state for two terms, but like me, he is a non-MAGA Republican, and as such, he seems to be anathema to many MAGA Republicans now, very sadly. In more than a few ways, as a broadly pro-life conservative voter, I increasingly perceive that *I* am anathema to many MAGA Republicans, and with the increasing isolationism in the Party, regarding Ukraine, and regarding the iffiness on Israel from some MAGA isolationists, President Biden is sounding much more "conservative" to me, at least on foreign policy, than much of MAGA does.

      I don't like Biden's thinking on abortion-- and he used to be closer to my view. He used to be at least *a bit* more pro-life on abortion, many years ago, when it was more acceptable within the Democratic Party to *be* pro-life on abortion. However, he is where he is now, and I strongly disagree with his view. I strongly disagree with Trump and MAGA on many things too, though, and fundamentally, I just don't want a bullying would-be authoritarian who refused to peacefully concede defeat in 2020, and who actually praises dictators more than he respects the Constitution, to *ever* be President of the United States again.

      I live in a very, very blue state, not a swing state at all, so whether I vote for Biden or not here, my vote makes no practical difference. After listening to Biden's address to the nation on Ukraine and Israel though, and thinking of how much MAGA isolationism disturbs and sickens me, along with my other disagreements with Trump and MAGA, I knew that if I lived in a swing state, I *would* vote for Biden, in *this* Presidential election, as an American pro-life conservative.

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      1. Jrichardson

        You are, to your credit, definitely a RINO at the point.

        And thus subject to the retribution of the 2025-2035 Trump regime.

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        1. Christopher Lake

          Jrichardson, at this point, I'm so deeply alienated from what the Republican Party has become that I will unequivocally say, if being a non-MAGA conservative makes me a RINO, in the eyes of the MAGA Republican base, then I'll take the RINO label, and wear it as a badge of honor! :-) Trump knows as much about the Constitution, and about general American civics, and about conservatism, as I know about advanced physics, and that is to say, he doesn't know much at all about those subjects. He needs to lose this Presidential election, by a much wider margin than he lost the last one, and he needs to lose *all* future Presidential elections, for which he may run, *so badly* that hopefully, even some of the dedicated Trump cultists will begin to see, and admit to themselves, that they have been conned by him. Maybe, even some of them will finally see, and admit, that he should really be behind bars, rather than acting as the cult leader of the personality cult that the Trumpified Republican Party has become.

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    Marianwcates

    "Sure, [Trump] might try a coup every now and then" -- I laughed out loud.

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      Kahster

      It would be funny if it weren’t such an actual risk!

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