P01135809

The costs and benefits of prosecuting a president.

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271
Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport on August 24, 2023, in Atlanta, Georgia, before his surrender at the Fulton County jail. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

We had a minor family quarrel in the Dispatch Slack channel last night.

There were many family quarrels happening across America at that hour, I’m sure. The mugshot for Fulton County inmate P01135809 had arrived shortly before 9 p.m. ET. Reaction on both sides ran hot.

Dispatch family quarrels aren’t like normal family quarrels. In a normal family quarrel, a conservative dad might bellow about witch hunts and politicized justice while his liberal daughter pounds the table, insisting that no one is above the law.

In a Dispatch family quarrel, one side demands that Donald Trump be prosecuted for all of the crimes while the other demands that he be prosecuted for merely some of the crimes.

In fact, our differences are slighter than that. To my knowledge, none of us—me included—thinks prosecuting him in Manhattan for the ancient and comparatively trivial Stormygate scandal is worth the political trouble it’s caused. No one is on Team All of the Crimes.

The divide is between Team Most of the Crimes and Team Some of the Crimes.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    “Domestic terrorism wouldn’t change my mind. If I allowed it to, that really would be rank appeasement. In fact, because I view prosecuting Trump as an “in for a penny, in for a pound” thing politically, I don’t see much marginal cost in each additional criminal offense. If we’re not letting him go completely scot free then we’ll bear the same social costs from charging him with most of the crimes as we’d bear from charging him with only some of the crimes.”

    I’m with you on that. Don’t negotiate with terrorists.

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    Jeff Walden

    I think there's some room to argue for somewhat more judicious charging in some of these cases -- being a tad bit more selective, pick charges with more punch and provability rather than throw the book in every one.

    But yes, accountability is too important here to just leave off of entire courses of terrible conduct. Which means you need charges for the classified documents, you need some charges for the Georgia nonsense, and you need some for the January 6 case.

    So if we set aside the atrocious Bragg case, end of day it can't be avoided having three serious cases to pursue, if perhaps with slightly fewer charges in one or more of them.

    And yes: grading Trump on the curve of his being utterly incapable of acting any other way, Republican senators are the people most responsible for all of this, at this point. Wish I lived somewhere where my voice on the matter would mean anything at all.

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    Normb1442

    In the end, Trump's conviction will come in November, 2024, regardless of the verdicts of juries. If he beats all four raps or is convicted on all four, as long as he's portrayed by right-wing media as a victim, he will continue to command large majorities of those who call themselves Republicans nowadays.

    But if he loses -- to whoever the Democrats put up -- his cries of fraud will have lost their ability to support his fantasies, because media knows when it's time to cancel a show. You lose TWICE -- presumably in 2024 by an even larger majority than in 2020 -- and the right-wing media are left with only two ways to keep their audiences -- either outright advocacy of sedition or another candidate to take Trump's place. And the thing about Trump is his ego has never allowed him to designate a backup, lest the backup steal even a bit of his thunder.

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    PJ

    " conveniently just as his presidential campaign has gained momentum"

    I am tired of conservative male cow excrement like this. You can do better TD.

    "Would any of these cases have been brought if Trump had chosen to live out his days playing golf at Mar-a-Lago instead of insisting on one last grudge match with American democracy?"

    The answer is YES! Stupid partisan question TD, you are better than playing with this male cow excrement.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Ben Connelly

      Yeah reading that I was also struck by the fact that I don’t think Merrick Garland and Jack Smith are playing the game Nick seems to suggest. However, I did think of a principled, institutionalist reason why they might have considered not bringing any charges if Trump had retired to private life and left politics altogether. For the good of the country and the health of the body politic, they might have deemed it better not to bring charges and in doing so drag Trump back into the light and into politics. I could see them deciding that pragmatism and prudence weighed heavily on letting sleeping dogs lie. Of course, Trump was never going to do that.

      Setting aside the question of whether or not they considered that, I don’t buy Nick’s claim that they waited until he announced to bring charges in the classified document case. Rather, it seemed to me that there were various steps along the way and the process eventually led to the appointment of Jack Smith, and that time and circumstance led to the timing of that, rather than any other motivations. They wouldn’t have charged him when he left office in 2021 because a lot of stuff had to happen between now and then first.

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  5. Dougrhon

    I amnot 100 percent sure when it started. It may have been back in the 90's with Clinton or after Bush took office in 2001 but at some point, Congress turned from a co-equal branch of government to a group of politicians who either act as the president's bagmen or as the opposing party's hitmen. There is no possibility of political accountability. Obviously. At the same time, I cannot agree to the use of the judicial system as a substitute for the proper function of Congress. We need to find a way to restore the proper balance between the first and second branches. We simply cannot allow the judicial system to be used as an extension of the "hitman" function. That said, if a president or ex president commits genuinely prosecutable crimes, he/she should be prosecuted. I currently have no formal opinion on whether the 1/6 indictments are proper or not. I will form my opinion later. That said, I still cannot believe Trump is on the verge of being nominated again. Of everything that has happened this is by far the most surreal followed by the Democrats' plan to re-nominate a president that nearly 3/4 of the country thinks is too old to function in the job.

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  6. David Barkhausen

    If Trump is re-elected in spite of it all, it will be because independents' concern for Biden's mental deterioration and evidence of corruption, as well as the likelihood of Kamala taking over, outweighs their disdain for Trump. Even Obama has apparently weighed in with the opinion that Biden could lose to Trump. If so, their failure, thus far, to turn on Biden will be responsible.

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      Wj

      The blame will lay squarely with the Republican Party, Trump and his imbecilic base - no one else.

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    Campfire Cook

    In response to Nick's question: "Would any of these cases have been brought if Trump had chosen to live out his days playing golf at Mar-a-Lago ..." It's a great question. Point taken. If these cases are being brought only because Trump didn't go quietly into exile, then that's bad.

    But SHOULD "any of these cases have been brought if Trump had chosen to live out his days playing golf at Mar-a-Lago ..." Yes. They. Should. Regardless of Trump's refusal to let sleeping dogs lie, these crimes deserve to be prosecuted. Sadly, the only way out is through.

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  8. Avatar photo
    WKDawson

    𝑂𝑓 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠𝑒, 𝑖𝑓 𝑤𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡 ℎ𝑖𝑚—𝑎 𝑚𝑎𝑛 𝑤ℎ𝑜 𝑝𝑎𝑙𝑝𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑦 𝑖𝑠𝑛’𝑡 𝑠𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑦 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑦𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑛𝑔 ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑑—𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑐 𝑟𝑜𝑡 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝑡𝑜 𝑏𝑒 𝑠𝑜 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑦 𝑚𝑢𝑐ℎ. 𝐴 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑦 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝑜 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑇𝑟𝑢𝑚𝑝 𝑎𝑛𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑎 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡’𝑠 𝑎𝑙𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑦 𝑙𝑜𝑠𝑡. 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑠𝑢𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑑𝑜 𝑤ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑚 𝑖𝑡𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑙𝑦 𝑡𝑎𝑘𝑒.

    indeed, 𝐹𝑖𝑎𝑡 𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎 𝑟𝑢𝑎𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑒𝑙𝑢𝑚. Make no mistake about it, God brought down Jerusalem, God can easily take us down too. None of the "this is the temple of the Lord, the temple of the Lord" nonsense will save our behinds if that is what happens. Yes, it won't be tomorrow, and there will be no book in the bible to remember it, but the prophet Jeremiah should not have been put in stocks and had to live half his life in hiding either. He who made the ears and the eyes __will__ punish the nations. You don't want to wish anyone to be there if that happens.

    I was resigned to the fact that if the Orange Menace had quietly gone back to Mar-a-Lago and lived out the remainder of his days playing golf, our justice system is so two-tiered that such was to be basically "given". I cannot think that even a conviction on the classified documents will amount to more than a hand slap and no jail; unlike the young man on the Discord server (he will be lucky if he only gets 10 or 20 years of his life sitting behind bars).

    ... and you're correct; if Rubio had done his job, we would not have to ask the justice system to do the most important job he abdicated to do. I recall that McConnell said that we let the justice system handle it. Well, at least _____they are____ doing their job.

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  9. Avatar photo
    Sad Trombone

    I think hiring you was the best thing Steve Hayes has done at The Dispatch. I agree completely with your point of view.
    A couple of points, not really tied together:
    I think Mitch McConnell is the best legislative leader of my lifetime, but wimping out on impeaching Trump will be his Bill Buckner legacy. Trying these cases, other than the classified documents, is using the wrong tool for a necessary job, like trying to open a paint can with a saw blade. You're likely to spill the paint and break the tool.
    The last paragraph of your piece is the most poignant though. I still want to believe that a large, large part of Trump's "support:" is just tribal anti-anti-Trumpism, like support of OJ Simpson was for Black Americans. I want to believe once in the voting booth or caucuses patriotism will win out. If not, I think Hamilton and Adams were right, the democratic experiment is bound for eventual failure.

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    Rajeev

    Republicans have been so dishonest for 15+ years that it doesn't matter they will always turn to victimhood. There is one person responsible for his situation and that is Donald Trump. They will always pretend that Donald Trump is being treated unfairly. Trump lead a violent insurrection against the country long before he was charged with any crimes. He spent his 2016 campaign outright encouraging violence over and over again. It is in his DNA to act this way so any fear of blowback to charging him is moot to begin with.

    Donald Trump admits to his crimes and does everything out in the open and his supporters don't care. Most of them know he's guilty and understand that it's not a double standard, but they persist anyway. Just like on January 6th a significant proportion of the rally goers knew he lost but thought he should remain in power anyway. Trump has openly praised the idea of authoritarianism throughout his term as president and it's no surprise that the Republican Party has become that way too. From the lawyers to the congress to the state Republican leaders, they have embraced this philosophy that is antithetical to Democratic/Western liberal values and unpatriotic by definition.

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