The Never Trump Temptation

Suckers and fighters, GOP primary edition.

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Former President Donald Trump speaks at the New Hampshire GOP annual meeting on January 28, 2023, in Salem, New Hampshire. (Photo by Scott Eisen/Getty Images)

The thing to understand about the coming Republican presidential primary is that it’s a referendum, not a choice.

Superficially it’s a choice. There’s Trump, soon there’ll be Nikki Haley, eventually there’ll be Ron DeSantis and a few others, each offering a different blend of conservatism and populism. Trump might go full metal nationalist next time while Haley reverts to her center-right roots; DeSantis and figures like Mike Pence will steer somewhere in between. That’s a complex choice for voters, no?

Nah. Not really.

A “choice” election is one in which the electorate weighs the strengths and weaknesses of multiple candidates before settling on one. A referendum is one in which the strengths and weaknesses of a single candidate drive their decision. Between the time Ronald Reagan left politics and the time Donald Trump entered, I’d argue that the only true referendum Republican voters experienced in a primary was 1992. That was the year Pat Buchanan forced a right-wing gut check on the success of George H.W. Bush’s first term as president.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    Good analysis. This is where you’re at your best, Nick. I think you make mistakes when you go outside of your lane, but this stuff is the stuff you seem better able to analyze than most.

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  2. Pundette

    Rubio tried to fight Trump with Trump tactics in 2016 and got burned for it. "Don't get into a mud wrestling match with a pig. You just get dirty, and the pig likes it." DeSantis has been smart to stay above the fray, to behave like an adult and a competent executive, to address policy rather than launch ad hominem attacks. If he can hang on for another almost-two-years, he'll have my vote.

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    BloggerBarbie

    It depends on what the dragon is, really. If you think Trump is the dragon that needs slaying, then sure, use ridiculous nonsense about being "too pro-vaccine". If you think the dragon is the aggressively stupid wing of the party, feeding it doesn't win anything--a deSantis win if based on that is no better than a Trump win because no dragon has been slain. It's just a chageover of which dragon-keeper is throwing the raw meat.

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  4. Elwood

    Thanks, Nick for another solid post. You’re on quite a streak lately. You forced me to rethink a few things with this one.

    Anti Trumpers ultimately want a healthy center-right party, so your argument is unsettling not just tactically in that it’s uncomfortable to consider this more passive strategy against Trump, but also in that a DeSantis primary victory is not likely to be a huge victory for even minded classical liberal conservativism in the GOP at all. It forces us to consider what incremental victories a Desantis nomination might bring while having proven himself as more MAGA than the man, himself.

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  5. Kgfroehle

    I am ~10 paragraphs into this and there are ~10 links, each of which I assume is relevant to the argument. But, at this point, I want to go watch F Troop, The Bourne Identity, or Babylon Bee.

    No disparagement to Mr. C. Just way too much for a sod with 3 IPAs under his belt. Mea culpa. Danke! I will return tomorrow. If there is one.

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    1. Elwood

      There were a ton of links and I felt myself getting distracted by some of those rabbit holes myself (no beer to blame, just little kids). It was worth reading though if nothing else than for a unique perspective I hadn’t yet heard.

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      1. Kgfroehle

        Yes, I know! Cato is great with his in-depth explanations. I had just had a long day, and desired the précis. Also, I was hungry. Maslow or something.

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    Paul Montagu

    As a NeverTrumper who truly adheres to the word "never", I think DeSantis is taking the right approach. He's fighting against leftists, not against Trump, and his response to Trump's "truth" about DeSantis hanging with high school girls was perfect, that he's about doing his job and not smearing other Republicans.
    DeSantis isn't just fighting against this or that leftist target, he's doing it in a way that out-Trumps Trump, which has to appeal to the Trump base, and it's politically smart. DeSantis isn't my favorite by a long shot, and there are lots of other GOPers I'd rather support, but if the choice came to Trump or DeSantis, it's DeSantis every time.
    Other Republicans tried to fight against Trump and attack him, but they came out on the short end, because Trump will always go lower. This is why DeSantis and Kemp and Youngkin have polled well, IMO, and they didn't make fools of themselves like Cruz or McCarthy or Graham in their prostrations to Trump.

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  7. Shadraq

    "his habit of running deficits in the trillions while president" - Presidents don't create deficits anymore than they balance budgets (Clinton). The budget falls under the purview of Congress.

    To put it somewhat differently, if elected President tomorrow, what specific actions would you take to ensure a balanced budget?

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    1. AJLiberty

      Looking at it slightly differently, Presidents DO suggest budgets and are part of the political process of shaping priorities. Every President should be judged on how they influence those negotiations and compromises. It's especially relevant when the President's party controls one or both houses of Congress. He should be able to drive the debate. So, how did Trump fare? He wanted a big tax cut, and an increase in military spending and border security spending, and really didn't push for any spending constraints. I would say that he shares in owning the result that he of course did have to sign off on.

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  8. Dougrhon

    I'm no Republican sister.

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  9. Avatar photo
    Brian Ruff

    Lots of sharp observations and good strategy here. A couple of thoughts:

    - Barring a major incident (economic crisis, Biden health crisis, China invasion of Taiwan, etc.), I don't see the GOP getting its act together in time to retake the White House in 2024. It's too fractured and dysfunctional to reform itself in 18 months, and regardless of the outcome of the primaries their nominee will face the traditional uphill battle against a Democratic incumbent with a compliant mainstream media. That said, at least one of those major incidents has a better than low probability of occurring.

    - I will be very interested to see what percentage of the American electorate is still in Trump's corner in the coming primary contests, because in the final analysis what we're really discovering isn't who is still on the Trump train; we're finding out who is on the "burn the whole thing down" train. Continuing to back someone who was objectively attempting a coup means you're willing to throw away the American experiment entirely to get what you want - or to at least make sure you're depriving someone else of what THEY want.

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  10. Goatprairie

    I have noticed on various conservative websites that a number of previously strong Trumpsters have finally had enough of Agent Orange’s insults and turned on him.
    Trump still has many millions of devoted idolaters who will tolerate any dumb, stupid thing he says or does, but at least the cult base is weakening somewhat.

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