You Say You Want a Revolution

The Republican primary features two models of disruption.

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Former US President Donald Trump speaks during a 2024 election campaign rally in Waco, Texas, March 25, 2023. (Photo by Suzanne Cordeiro/AFP/Getty Images)

If your highest priority as a Republican is choosing a nominee who will “shake things up” as president, how are you voting in the coming primary?

Answering that question was easy in 2016. On the one hand there was Trump, on the other a menu of traditional politicians who hadn’t accomplished anything as legislators (Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio) or weren’t populist enough as governors to suit the right-wing base (Jeb Bush, John Kasich).

For an electorate craving maximum disruption, there was only one choice. And insofar as there was another, it’s no coincidence that the second-place finisher’s claim to fame was shutting down the government.

Republican voters crave disruption. But who is the candidate of disruption in 2024?

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  1. Robbie1138@gmail.com

    First time comment as a Dispatch member (took about 18 months to do it, shows how engaged I am in the community!!)

    First, as usual, an enjoyable and thorough analysis from Nick. Thank you!

    My question is one that I tend to ask the podcast I'm listening to or article Im reading whenever I hear, "he's [Trump's] term limited." I'm just curious why I never hear anyone in these podcasts or writing newsletters question whether term limits wouldn't be challenged by MAGA. Maybe Trump's age makes it a non-issue, but beyond that I could see the MAGA-verse yet again testing the strength of our institutions and enforcement of Constitutional provisions in 2028 (emoluments, anyone?). Would the GOP as it currently stands [read: kneels] really say no to a Trump who wanted to be nominated for a third term just because some Amendment says he can't?

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      Ben Connelly

      Welcome to the comments section. Yeah I wonder the same as you, but I don’t actually think that he’s got a strong chance of being either nominee or president in 2024. Plus, as you say, age (and poor health) may do what term limits might not.

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  2. Joe1776

    Ukraine will need longer range missiles and/or jets to deal with Crimea and finish the war. If DeSantis's position is they are off the table then it is very hard for me to vote for him. I wonder what generals are giving him advice.

    Right now Nikki Haley seems the top choice for me.

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  3. James Morphew

    Mr. Catoggio writes with eloquence and vigor, very readable. But this article, like many, are full of weak prediction, speculation, and conclusions based on those. I believe we call these "strawmen", which are then knocked down so easily. The very general rems of "populism", Maga-Republicans", and "disruptor" are enjoyable groups to criticize, but there is no clear point being made without clearer description of who we are disparaging, and why.

    "Disruption" became popular in business around 2000, when the dot-com bubble was flying high with other people's money. There is is still some romance about disruptors, until they touch something we like. If we are talking about agents of change, all change is disruption -- some is needed, some is not, and discretion and discernment are the necessary tools for selection.

    DeSantis has been rather political in some of his pronouncements rather than unambiguous, which leaves a lot of room for interpretation and speculation. I would prefer he spoke clearly and carefully with justification and reason about his positions; I suspect he can, because he has some powerful credentials and has spoken such in the past. He will certainly need a strong PR - sales program. Not all who voted for Trump were strong supporters, but saw him as the preferred choice of lesser evils. Trump has since reduced the number of such tolerant voters, so he has little chance in a general election. But the Republicans (especially the primary voters) still have quite a few loyalists, who may choose to take their votes home, and give us another 4 years of Democratic rule. That is my chief worry.

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  4. Ken Motamed

    "Even if the war doesn’t drag on, [DeSantis] might take such a beating from Trump loyalists in this year’s primary for being a “globalist” that he’ll be keen to make a grand gesture as president to prove them wrong."

    It's hard to imagine DeSantis winning the primary if he takes a heavy beating from the Trump loyalists.

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    Mister D

    I have one foot out the party door and am waiting to see who we choose in 2024. I don't want "disruption." I want sanity. After that, maybe some principle, preferably conservative. I fear too many sane voters have left the party. Like boiling salt water, the concentration of nuts is only increasing and that will make it harder to get a sane, electable candidate through the primary.

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    Ajax81613

    I think I agree that Trump would be the bigger disrupter, but I'm not sure. Trump is so odious that he is easier to see coming. I don't see much difference in policies. DeSantis would surely also take us out of the Paris Accords and end support for Ukraine, continue the culture wars with calls for book banning and corporate and media censorship by the government, etc. Maybe, MAYBE, he would somehow be less divisive, but I don't see it.

    At this point, Pence would be a better choice -- at least he's civilized in his bigotry.

    So I wish the media would stop saying "that's why I support DeSantis over Trump" and instead say, "NEITHER OF THESE GUYS IS ACCEPTABLE" so that we can get a better option before it's too late. We need the GOP to have, you know, actual leadership and get their house in order. We need the media to keep pushing this and stop both Trump AND DeSantis.

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    1. Ken Motamed

      I'm reasonably sure a lot of DeSantis's truculence is intended to appeal to the MAGA crowd's attraction to "fighters." As president, he will behave much more sanely.

      Let's not forget how Biden misrepresented himself in the primary as a centrist Democrat only to end up doing the radical left's bidding as president.

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        Ajax81613

        This is exactly, almost to the word, what was said about Trump. "He'll be more presidential when he's in office." NOT. When someone shows you who he is, believe them (someone once said...)

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      Pat Riot

      DeSantis is divisive because doing so gets him votes. Trump is divisive because he's actually that way naturally. Which is worse? Neither: they amount to the same thing.

      I agree that Haley or Pence would be... fine.

      And I too wish the media would stop pushing DeSantis as the Trump alternative, but I think he's already starting to lose his shine...

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        Ajax81613

        I'm hopeful.

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  7. Jim S

    If Republicans have a Trump voter problem, how does the continual twisting of themselves into a knot to placate those voters do anything to mitigate that.

    Lots of lectures from conservatives about how this is a binary choice between Trump and DeSantis because you need to preserve “the base”. All this begs the question of why you insist on remaining beholden to these folks at all. Zero talk of new coalition building, just the same ole sleazy political hamster wheel throwing out gimmes to various special interest groups in an attempt to get to 50% + 1 vote.

    It is obviously time for a third party, but unfortunately all the people in a position to make it happen are so focused on winning in the short term they would gladly sacrifice a better future to make minuscule gains today.

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    1. James Morphew

      Third parties start slowly, have a struggle, lose for a while, and need nurturing. But it may be time. It will take strong, eloquent leadership -- not a wrestler, a social media star, or a "disruptor". A possible Biden-Trump election would certainly be a larger opportunity than some single issue-based candidacy. Ross Perot got around 11%, at a fairly happy time, not bad for a first-timer.

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      1. Grafakos

        Perot got nearly 19%, and no doubt would have done even better had he not dropped out of the race in July only to re-enter in October.

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    2. Goatprairie

      Ever hear the phrase half a loaf is better than none? Most cultists might be cracked, but they and the non cultists still agree on many issues.
      Whereas they probably agree with Dems on just about nothing. Except maybe Ukraine.
      I favor telling the cultists to bugger off, but many conservatives dread having Biden or whatever Dem in the WH another four years.

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      1. Indisguise

        If Biden loses do you see him inciting riots and trying to throw out electoral votes he doesn't like? I don't. So I will vote for Biden. Yes it means Trump won and made me leave a party I was in since the 70s. Happens

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    CJ

    "The most meaningful domestic legislative achievement of his [Trump's] administration wasn’t building the border wall, of which less than 500 miles were constructed. It was enacting a tax cut written by establishment titans Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell, the benefits of which accrued mostly to America’s upper class instead of to Trump’s working-class base."

    God I love having Nick here. We get honesty at The Dispatch that we wouldn't get anywhere else because to utter those lines at a place like NR would get you shown the door.

    Republicans have a "Trump voter problem" because Republicans MADE a "Trump voter problem". Imagine if the tax cut (or ones before it) had been structured to fall on the lowest-income Americans. Maybe the common people would be less wildly angry and in favor of populist extremism (of the Sanders or Trump sort) if we occasionally threw them a damn bone instead of giving it to the rich? The same goes for a lesser extent to the Democrats, who at least are trying to improve things but are just not that good at it.

    This is why I think DeSantis would be worse than Trump. His "radicalism" is fake, all for show. He's got a temper and a mean streak but I think in the White House he'd mostly just be a Paul Ryan, having no higher principle than cutting taxes for the wealthy. But I actually think that would be WORSE for America than getting Trump back, because DeSantis would keep repeating the same fucking mistakes that gave us Trump in the first place. When Trump described DeSantis (and Paul Ryan) as a "wheelchair-over-the-cliff kind of guy" he was right on the money. And if he does that from the White House, that civil war we all want to avoid may become a socialist revolution instead.

    I'll probably get a lot of flack for that, but that's my opinion and it is what it is. Our best bet is to stick with the D's and help them bleed off some of the nationwide simmering rage. Our next best bet is Trump to vent that rage in a hurry - he'd be a disaster but we can probably survive it. Our worst bet is DeSantis. I'm not sure we can survive 8 years of him just making everyone angrier.

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    1. Ken Motamed

      " ... to utter those lines at a place like NR would get you shown the door." You must not be a regular National Review reader. I read those words on NR on a daily basis.

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    2. Goatprairie

      “Imagine if the tax cut (or ones before it) had been structured to fall on the lowest-income Americans. Maybe the common people would be less wildly angry and in favor of populist extremism (of the Sanders or Trump sort) if we occasionally threw them a damn bone instead of giving it to the rich.”

      Most of the poor pay zero income tax. The rich, the top one percent of income earners, pay close to 40% of all fed income taxes. The top ten pay over 60%. The bottom 50% pay close to zero.

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        Chuckgold

        Yes, but payroll taxes count for something too, especially for the lower income earners. F.I.C.A. and Medicare taxes come out of every cent earned. It could be said that low income earners pay double, since the employers match their contributions, and presumably those matching funds would be available to fatten the worker's pay.

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        Kizedek

        “ Most of the poor pay zero income tax. The rich, the top one percent of income earners, pay close to 40% of all fed income taxes. The top ten pay over 60%. The bottom 50% pay close to zero.”

        I’m not sure it’s as “unfair” as it sounds. I don’t think the rich actually pay disproportionally as much as you make it sound like they do…. *because the top 1% percent ALSO hold 40% of the nation’s wealth*

        Are you really bragging that 50% of the US makes barely more than the basic income allowed before taxes? Because waitresses have to live off tips, and Republicans hate minimum wages and anything that favors the employee?

        And Republicans thank God that Americans don’t pay “50% taxes” like Norwegians do? Perhaps it’s because 100% of Norwegians make at least 2 ½ times what the bottom 50% of Americans are making? And then they receive something in return for their “50% taxes” : better infrastructure, better education, better healthcare, better work-life balance…

        Sadly, the thinking that totally unfettered free markets cause wealth to “trickle down” and “float all boats” hasn’t really proven to be the case in the US. It has gotten more and more consolidated in the hands of the upper 1%, whom Republicans of all walks of life and income levels still seem to feel need the largesse of the govt while the country literally crumbles.

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        Pat Riot

        Started to write the same thing...

        Unlike Republicans and their tax cuts, when Democrats want to buy votes, they give away money e.g. student loan forgiveness or new entitlements. (That said, there's very little real difference between the parties at the federal level on economic matters these days).

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        CJ

        Yes, the poor don't generally pay income tax. They do pay other taxes. Uncle Sam doesn't control all of them, but Uncle Sam does control some of them.

        And no, I don't think the rich paying 40% of all federal income taxes is nearly enough, particularly since we're running trillion-dollar-deficits and there's not a realistic way out of that hole without major revenue increases.

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    Jaylarson430

    As a "traditional" Republican I am for neither DeSantis or Trump. But will never vote for Trump. I think an elected DeSantis would be much more productive in terms of legislation and that legislation would be beneficial in getting the country moving forward.

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    Kbroot

    Just can’t support people like both Trump and DeSantis. Both have character flaws that are beyond supporting and DeSantis’s policies are not worth supporting. I am not answering comments on this, if anyone bothers to leave any.

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    1. Ken Motamed

      I don't know of any politician who doesn't have character flaws.

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    2. Goatprairie

      Too bad….you could use a good education.

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      1. Indisguise

        I mistrust DeSantis and most of the gop. Not for policy. Because they will accommodate anyone. Power is all they care about and they proved it. Most likely if we had a left wing dictator they'd just accommodate him too.

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