What the Wisconsin Supreme Court Race Tells Us About 2024

Plus: A progressive wins in Chicago.

By , and
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Wisconsin voters cast their ballots on November 8, 2022, in Madison. (Photo by Jim Vondruska/Getty Images)

Happy Wednesday! Donald Trump may be the first American president to be indicted. But he isn’t the first to be arrested. “Ulysses S. Grant, who had an eye for spirited horses and an apparent yen to test their mettle, was arrested in 1872 for speeding on a street in Washington, where he had been driving a two-horse carriage,” according to the New York Times. “The Grant episode apparently wasn’t reported in the press at the time, but it came to light in 1908 when The Sunday Star of Washington published an interview with the then-retired officer who pulled the 18th president of the United States over.”

Up to Speed

  • Days after being indicted on 34 counts of falsifying business records by a New York grand jury, Donald Trump appeared in Manhattan court Tuesday to enter his not guilty plea. After traveling back to Mar-a-Lago, the former president on Tuesday night gave a defiant speech to a crowd of supporters that included former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz, and MyPillow CEO and election conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell. “These radical left lunatics want to interfere with our elections by using law enforcement,” Trump said. “We can’t let that happen.”
  • Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen of Nevada announced Monday morning she will run for reelection in 2024. A Republican insider in the Silver State tells The Dispatch the party is still searching for a consensus top-tier recruit to challenge the first-term incumbent. 
  • West Virginia’s three-term Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, a Republican, announced Tuesday he will run for governor in 2024. “I’m the only proven conservative in this race,” Morrisey said at his launch event in Harpers Ferry. “I have delivered on big projects and I know how to drain the swamp.” Morrisey had reportedly been evaluating whether to enter the governor’s race or to challenge Sen. Joe Manchin, as he did unsuccessfully in 2018. Reports that Republican Gov. Jim Justice intends to run against Manchin likely motivated Morrisey to look at the governor’s mansion instead.
  • Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was in Ukraine this week. Pompeo broke with his old boss Donald Trump, arguing in a Twitter thread Tuesday that helping Kyiv should be a priority. “Supporting Ukraine isn’t about abstract ideals like ‘global democracy’: it’s about strengthening OUR national and economic security,” wrote Pompeo. “If Putin wins, he’ll control critical exports to the U.S. And he’ll be on the brink of a broader war in Europe.” Pompeo is mulling a 2024 bid for president.
  • Roy McGrath, a 53-year-old former aide to former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan wanted by federal authorities on corruption charges, died in Tennessee Monday after a confrontation with the FBI. McGrath, who had been indicted in 2021 on charges of fraud and embezzlement, became a fugitive last month after he failed to appear in court to begin his trial. The FBI said it was reviewing the circumstances of McGrath’s death, about which few public details have been released.
  • North Carolina state Rep. Tricia Cotham announced she was changing her party affiliation from Democrat to Republican Wednesday morning, a sudden mid-session flip that gives state Republicans a supermajority to overcome vetoes from Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. 

Liberal Candidate Prevails in Crucial Wisconsin Court Contest

The Republican Party under the titular leadership of former President Donald Trump continues to falter at the ballot box—this time in an election that handed liberals a majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

With Trump dominating national headlines Tuesday while being arraigned in New York, Democratic Party-aligned Janet Protasiewcz quietly romped to victory in Wisconsin, a 2024 battleground, in the technically nonpartisan race for a seat on the state Supreme Court. Protasiewcz defeated the GOP-aligned Dan Kelly 55.5 percent to 44.5 percent. Republicans blamed several factors: a moribund state party and lack of resources; Kelly’s flaws as a candidate; and swing voters motivated to preserve abortion rights. 

Indeed, abortion mattered in the Supreme Court contest in Wisconsin. But it was Trump who loomed over the race, as he did over midterm elections five months ago. The latter campaign finished with Democrats defending their hold on governor’s mansions in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, growing their majority in the U.S. Senate and only narrowly losing control of the House of Representatives. And all of this happened under the specter of deep anxiety about the economy, rising crime and dissatisfaction withPresident Joe Biden. 

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  1. Avatar photo
    DougAz

    Tennessee House expels first of three Democrats who joined gun-control protests

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/04/06/tennessee-democrats-expulsion/

    Conservative power depravity is 100% Un American. These Republicans are Traitors to American democracy

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  2. Avatar photo
    Steve Eggleston

    Let me tell you a little story about redistricting in Wisconsin. The year was 1983, and thanks to Tony Earl's somewhat-surprising victory in the governor's race a year earlier, the Democrats picked up the last piece of the trifecta of the governorship, the state Senate and state Assembly. They decided the court-drawn maps prior to the 1982 elections that had kept their legislative advantage weren't good enough for them, so they redrew them to solidify their advantage.

    That advantage survived the 1984 election (the last time prior to 2016 a Republican won a Presidential election in Wisconsin), the 1986 election of Tommy Thompson as governor, the 1988/1990 elections, and after some changes by a court following the 1990 census, 1992 election. The Democrats lost the Assembly in 1994, only regaining it for a single session after the 2008 election.

    On the other hand, it was the Republicans who had only brief majorities through the 1990s, following the 1994 election and a couple of brief moments when Thompson engineered a mid-session Democrat exit and the Republicans won the succeeding special election but almost immediately lost the majority in the following election. It wasn't until after the 2002 election that saw Republicans control the Senate for more than a single legislative session.

    Bear in mind that, in Wisconsin, each Senate district is made up of exactly three Assembly districts. Further, this current map was drawn by a court, just like the initial map following the 1980 census and the maps following the 1990 and 2000 censuses.

    As for the 8th Senate district, even before Trump, the district, especially the north shore suburbs in Ozaukee and Milwaukee Counties, was becoming less Republican as the money became hereditary. Jim Ott, who represented the north shore portion of the district in the Assembly for the better part of a decade and legislated as a prototypical pre-Trump Republican, lost his re-election bid in 2020. Now, that's spreading (south)westward into Waukesha County as the money ages in places like Brookfield and Menomonee Falls.

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    Adicesa14

    To say the Wisconsin Supreme Court election result is a wakeup call for Wisconsin Republicans is an understatement. It ought to be a wakeup call for all Republicans. Since assuming the Presidency in 2017, Donald Trump’s ridiculous insistence on fealty to himself, and blitzkrieg of verbal nonsense has caused Republican loses even though Republican’s held advantage on issues. His continued presence exasperates recovery. He stymies debate because Democrats and media gleefully allow him center stage drowning out all other Republican voices. Democrats must be astonished at the weakness of Republican politicians, who cower in fear from confronting DJT. All Republicans should wakeup and turn away from this absurd pariah.

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    DougAz

    The Wisconsin message is clear. The mid terms are clear.

    A. A vast majority want liberal abortion access.
    B. A vast and growing majority are fed up and ready to turn out Power hungry Republicans. The grotesque assymetric gerrymandering was on the Wisconsin ballot Republicans lose. Conservatives lose.

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    1. BadgerBill

      Doug, you got it just right here in Wisconsin. I’d add one thing-Kelly (watch his “concession” speech-it’s Trump in a different body) was involved deeply in the Big Lie nonsense, including the “fake elector” stuff. The two elements you mentioned and this third I’m mentioning will be the hallmark of Democratic talking points for many elections to come, rightfully so.

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      1. Avatar photo
        DougAz

        Lawyers Spar Before Judge Over Rescinding of Federal Approval of Abortion Pill https://nyti.ms/3LuHkqv

        Thanks.

        Now conservatives are just fine having lawyers play at science and medicine like this Christian Sharia law West Texas judge Matthew J. Kacsmaryk.

        And the Christian Sharia law "Alliance for Hippocratic Oath" are depraved people.

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  5. Jccarper46

    For those interested in the movement to protect human life in utero I would recommend Embryo: Defense of Human Life by Robert George and Chris Tollefsen and Marvin Olasky's The Story of Abortion in America. There is much more to this movement than the efforts of so-called "religious zealots."

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    1. Avatar photo
      O.W.L.

      For those interested in protecting human life--what are you doing about the fact that there are more guns than people in the USA? Put up or shut up. If all you care about is abortion, you are not pro-life.

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      1. Jccarper46

        In my circle, "put up or shut up" does not get the discussion anywhere. Try a proposition that can be debated or discussed. By the way, among my biology colleagues there's is no debate about when human life begins. It is not a "religious question."

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        1. Wsampson

          All or nothing because your circle knows better forces another all or nothing approach. 6 week bans are wrong. Compromising a woman’s health because the unborn are more important is bad. The new extreme unleashed by the groomed justices is creating a next wave of zero tolerance on the abortion access team. Your team can’t be trusted. Never republican will now move forward

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          1. Jccarper46

            There is nothing of substance to reply to here.

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      2. BadgerBill

        Repeal the 2nd Amendment.

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        1. Janicewfahy

          Yes. I’m with you and Justice Stevens on that one.

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  6. Avatar photo
    Steve Gordon

    It's political malpractice that for 50 years Republicans fought to be in position to overturn Roe v. Wade to the states, and then have zero messaging within those states for a rational policy. Not that I believe there's any one message that solves for the issue, but it's pretty clear that the gag order response ain't workin'...

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      O.W.L.

      Honestly, this whole mess makes it clear that the only way to achieve consensus on abortion is not to talk about it, and not to have laws about it. It is such an intensely private and ethical decision. The state should not be dictating where life begins. That is a religious question. If the Catholics are right, then everybody who had an abortion, or who helped with one, or encouraged one...is a sinner. If the Jews are right, then abortion is a purely personal decision until birth.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Steve Gordon

        Serious question. Should someone be able to abort a baby at 8.5 months, when the child is totally viable? I don't ask that to be a troll. I just think the state has a protective interest in the child at some point.

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        1. Avatar photo
          Party-san

          Can you list cases where this has happened? Can you find a doctor in the country who will do this? If not, this is not a serious question but a rhetorical one.

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          1. Avatar photo
            Steve Gordon

            According to Pew, 1% of abortions occur after 21 weeks. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2023/01/11/what-the-data-says-about-abortion-in-the-u-s-2/
            My question is serious, and yes, mostly rhetorical. It might be extremely rare. But is there a point where the state should legally protect the life of the unborn child, or is it a woman's choice until the moment of birth? In most state laws, if a pregnant woman is killed, there is a charge for both the woman and the unborn child.

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  7. Jvecchione

    Grant too! Clearly they only go after Republicans! :)

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  8. Avatar photo
    Jill

    😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂“… to a crowd of supporters that included former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz, and MyPillow CEO and election conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell. ‘These radical left lunatics want to interfere with our elections by using law enforcement,’ Trump said. ‘We can’t let that happen.’”
    😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

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    1. J. Everett Schubert

      The Mount Rushmore of MAGA World: Greene, Gaetz, Lake, and Lindell.

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  9. Avatar photo
    George.Skinner

    The Republican base seems to have caved to self-gratification. From 2008 onwards, the party has been in the position of a middle-aged guy who's been putting on weight. For a decade or so, they tried to exercise more and fix their diet. They nominated McCain and Romney, they railed about fiscal responsibility and entitlement reform.
    Heck, once they even signed up for a gym membership, but stopped using it. They did a post-mortem after their 2012 loss, figured out they needed some big changes and chased bipartisan immigration reform to try to get right with demographics they'd been losing.

    Nothing really seemed to work, and they kept getting fatter and slower than their rival at the office. They lost election after election, occasionally gaining the House or Senate, but without any real power or accomplishments.

    Finally, they had a meltdown about 7 years ago, put on the sweat pants, and gorged on all the foods they really liked and parked on the couch watching TV. They nominated Trump, gave in to every angry populist idea, appealed only to the base, and managed to win an election.

    This has only made things worse, but it's just easier to continue acting that way and turn into a shut-in rather than cutting back on the junk food, eating healthy, and going jogging again.

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  10. Avatar photo
    CJ

    One of the more interesting politics things I've seen recently is engagement from FL's new Democratic chairperson Nikki Fried, who if primary voters there had been a bit smarter would have had a good chance at snuffing out DeSantis's career in 2022 - alas, they picked an old white male ex-Republican has-been with zero personality instead of a talented, well-spoken, energetic, and to be frank quite pretty mid-40s woman.

    Fried is regularly posting names of first-time donors on Twitter and other social media, thanking them for their contributions. Just first name and last initial, but the trend is very clear: the names would seem indicate that these new donors are overwhelming female and overwhelmingly white. Obviously hard to tell much from a name, but "Jane", "Emily", "Susan", "Carol", "Hannah", "Lisa", etc. paints a picture.

    I doubt there's a woman alive who hasn't been the subject of sexual harassment at least once in their lives or knows someone who has, and a staggeringly large number have been subjected to a LOT more than harassment. Regardless of how they feel about school choice, immigration, taxation, etc., or even their personal views on abortion very few women I've ever met feel they have the moral or legal right to tell another woman what to do with her body, particularly when the pregnancy is from something other than purely consensual sex between two adults.

    As Republicans in Florida and other states continue to push for tighter and tighter bans (12 weeks with exceptions -> 6 weeks with exceptions -> 6 weeks without exceptions -> no abortion without exception -> criminalization -> death penalty) the number of women who are TERRIFIED and ANGRY is only growing, but a GOP that only knows how to cater to the base like Kelly did in Wisconsin or Trump/DeSantis do nationally is not going to be able to adapt.

    Wisconsin is a 50-50 state with very Republican & white suburbs. For Kelly to lose by double digits is a message but I doubt the religious zealots pushing for abortion bans are going to be willing to hear it.

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    1. Kaybmorrow

      I considered voting for Crist even though I am a Republican. DESANTIS scares me .

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        David Burke

        As well he should…

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        John N.

        Same here. I hated voting for Crist but DeSantis is a genuinely bad person.

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      JohnM.

      Do you really think that DeSantis won by nearly a 20 point margin solely because of his opponent?

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        David Burke

        No. But probably a good deal had to do with the appetite for bullies and mean spirited actions that appear to appeal to the majority of Republican voters these days. All to prevalent.

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          JohnM.

          Funny thing is, his policies are widely supported by Floridians.

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          1. Janicewfahy

            They won’t be the minute he signs a 6-week ban, an action that would also indicate he has zero interest in being president of these United States.

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            David Burke

            Ultimately, John, my friend, it’s not funny in the least.

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          3. Hikingguy

            This is why I am happy to be living about as far from Florida as is possible in the lower 48.

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      2. Avatar photo
        CJ

        Democrats lost 900,000 votes compared to 2018, DeSantis picked up 550,000. Turnout dropped from 62.6% to 53.6%.

        Was Charlie Crist being a crap candidate the only reason DeSantis won? No.
        Was it a big part of why he won by the oft-quoted "20-point margin"? You bet.

        If that isn't a message you want to hear, you don't need to listen to it, but it is reality.

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        1. Jack H Wolf

          Rubio also won by 16% compared to his prior win in 2016 of 7.5% so granted RDS did a little better but FL appears to in general be swinging strongly Republican

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          1. Avatar photo
            CJ

            Yeah but Democratic turnout was just as low in the Senate race as the governor's race - Rubio lost 350,000 votes compared to 2016 but the Democrats lost 900,000. I do think Florida is getting redder but I also think Democrats have run mediocre candidates for statewide races for many years.

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        2. Avatar photo
          George.Skinner

          Was DeSantis's handling of COVID also an issue? The lack of restrictions in Florida vs. other states was doubtless noted and appreciated by Florida residents, particularly as they didn't lead to any adverse impact on COVID case rate compared with other states. That, and competent management of state response to recent hurricanes could lead to a lot of people supporting him who might otherwise be put off by all of the culture war politicking. However, those factors aren't necessarily replicable outside of Florida, let alone with a couple of additional years lapsed since.

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          1. Avatar photo
            CJ

            I think that is indeed a part of how he picked up some independents.

            Florida's population grew by 1 million people between 2018 and 2022 and it's entirely conceivable that some of the newer people who hadn't had prior DeSantis experience (like his first run for governor, or his time as a crappy Congressman before that - he represented my elderly parents in Volusia Co.) did respond to some semi-positive stuff.

            But we all know the American voter is a fickle creature. If Florida allowed him to run for a third term, I think he'd have a much tougher race.

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        2sequoia

        No, but it had a lot to do with it.

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    3. Karin

      Me too. Thank you for your comments.

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