The News from the Middle East May Not Be What It Seems

It’s still too early to say where Suleimani’s killing will lead us.

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Today’s goal is two-fold, to confuse and clarify. I’m hoping to muddy the waters on all the definitive projections and predictions about what’s going to happen next in Iran and Iraq. But first I hope to offer some clarity regarding the law of war. So, here goes—today’s French Press:

  1. Yup, Trump threatened to commit war crimes.

  1. Nope, we still don’t know if killing Qassem Suleimani was wise. 

The law of war binds the president.

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  1. RaymondSwenson

    The WW II campaign of mass napslm bombing from 130 B-29s at a time clesrly destroyed "cultural properties" over broad swaths of land. The Nagoya Castle had huge historical importance in the civil wars to reunify Japan. It was in the same city with the Mitsubishi aircraft factory that made the Zero fighter planes. Similar historic properties were burned in the firestorms created by the bombing of all the major cities of Japan. Kyoto snd Nara wete not bombed, but only because Senator Elbert Thomas of Utah persuaded the White House that those ancient cities had no military value. Thomas had served as a missionary in Japsn for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter'day Saints with his wife, and esrned a PhD in Asian Studies.

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  2. RaymondSwenson

    If Iran is able to move quickly onto wespon production, then it has been cheating all along. It took the US Manhattan Project two years to move from a program start to production of two atomic bombs. If Iran clsims it can produce a weapon faster than two years from now, they have been building the plants for uranium usotooe separation, and creation and extraction of plutonium. And fabrication of plutonium into implosion shells. And the production of implosion explosive shells to set off a chain reaction in the plutonium. If they were cheating, the Obams treaty was a sham to get billions of dollars out of frozen assets in the US.

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    Theirn Scott

    Give credit when credit is due. President Trump has opened the door to Iran to change its relationship with the rest of the world. I'm no Pollyanna about the future of Iran but the ball is in their court.

    I'm loath to make positive predictions about decisions this president makes as his future actions can sometimes obviate the good decisions he has made. But he's recently backed off his rhetoric that included committing future war crimes to punish Iran and today he made a significant effort to deescalate tensions. And the markets have reacted accordingly

    Good things could come from this. Good decisions in the future will be needed for that to happen. Most of them from Iran. But from the president too.

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  4. Stan Morris

    Is it possible that Trump's talk about bombing cultural sites was what the American people need to hear? Maybe it was what the Iranians needed to hear? The military was not going to break the rules of war and everyone who really knows our country knew that. As ex-military you know that. Sometimes you have to threaten to bring down the lightening even if that isn't really going to happen. We are ok with that. Sounds a heck of a lot better than saying that we are going to take it on the chin because there are real limits on American power and we need to face that fact.

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    Jason

    Iranian weakness domestically could be played by the regime in two days: leaning into conflict so as to marshal a sense of aggrieved nationalism, even if there's not yet widespread evidence of that emerging in the wake of Suleimani, or to David's point face-saving measures that don't subject them to a further humiliation.

    After Abqaiq, and now this, there are a limited number of regional type moves left before its in Iranian territory - still room to roll back their proxy support infrastructure outside Iran, but not much.

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