The Sweep: Is Trump the Frontrunner or Not?

Former President Donald Trump speaks at the New Hampshire GOP’s annual meeting on January 28, 2023, in Salem, New Hampshire. (Photo by Scott Eisen/Getty Images)


What is going on with the GOP presidential primary polls? From Nate Cohn at the New York Times

In national surveys since last November’s midterm election, different pollsters have shown [Trump] with anywhere between 25 percent and 55 percent of the vote in a multicandidate field. 

That’s right: a mere 30-point gap.

As Nate pointed out in 2019—when he predicted that Joe Biden would be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination the next year, months before Biden was even officially in the race—these polls can be predictive.

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