The Sweep: Is Trump the Frontrunner or Not?

Plus: A sign that our polarization is only getting worse.

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Former President Donald Trump speaks at the New Hampshire GOP’s annual meeting on January 28, 2023, in Salem, New Hampshire. (Photo by Scott Eisen/Getty Images)

Appetizer

What is going on with the GOP presidential primary polls? From Nate Cohn at the New York Times: 

In national surveys since last November’s midterm election, different pollsters have shown [Trump] with anywhere between 25 percent and 55 percent of the vote in a multicandidate field. 

That’s right: a mere 30-point gap.

As Nate pointed out in 2019—when he predicted that Joe Biden would be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination the next year, months before Biden was even officially in the race—these polls can be predictive.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    Potentially some good news there.

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  2. Avatar photo
    Mister D

    Trump is the frontrunner until he's not. No one in the party, not even Don Ron, has the name recognition Trump does. Hell, I'm not sure Biden has the same recognition Trump does. No matter his poor approval across the nation, it is still high in the party. He will be the default choice until someone else steps forward.

    That said, when he's only getting at best 55% of the votes when no one else has announced I would not consider encouraging unless that group is homogeneously determined to vote for him regardless. Odds are many of them will be willing to switch their vote once they are exposed to more candidates.

    That said, I'd rather start with 30-55% knowing the rest is going to be split among a dozen different candidates.

    I still don't think he can win. I think he support is deep but narrow, while opposition is both wider and at least as deep. He can win the nomination, but he's going to struggle to win the general. Again.

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  3. Avatar photo
    Hyrumc

    Given:
    1. The only factor determining electoral district should be a person’s primary address.
    2. All votes should have equal weight.

    Conclusion
    A cluster analysis based on residence which produces equally sized districts would meet these criteria,

    Would anyone care to discuss the givens or the conclusion?

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  4. Mpaskowitz

    Two things.

    First, wasn't "Trump has a ceiling in the high 30's" the conventional wisdom four years ago?

    Second, I was skimming at the start and briefly thought "The Brisket" had picked Biden as the Democratic frontrunner!

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  5. BPM

    RE: polling. I understand it's a cottage industry for beltway types but....Why not just look at Betfair? Trump has improved on that market, where you can put your money where your mouth is. It's likely due to Biden's own classified docs problem.

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  6. Hughbike

    No Waffle Houses in CT, but there are several Cracker Barrels. An annoying characteristic of breakfast joints locally (think Mystic, etc) is home fries instead of hash browns. Meh...

    Love The Sweep!

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    1. Avatar photo
      Angie

      Ah, I prefer home fries myself...lol

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      1. Hughbike

        Thanks for the idea!

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        1. Avatar photo
          Angie

          You are welcome...lol

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      2. Hughbike

        Got myself up off the couch and made sweet potato home fries soon after. Red onion, a little garlic, a couple of over easy eggs, Valentina hot sauce... delicious!

        The secret was micowaving the potato for 2:30 min on high while the skillet heated up. Sliced lengthwise then into thin semicircles.

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        1. Avatar photo
          Angie

          Real fried potatoes are awesome...but rare at restaurants, my dad used to make the most awesome ones on Sunday mornings before church...there is a local mom an dpop here who makes awesome ones though

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          1. Hughbike

            BEFORE church haha!!! Niiice!!!

            Supposedly there is a small but wildly popular french fry chain down the road in the New Haven CT area, anyone heard of it?

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    2. Raincheck

      Hash browns take up an incredible amount of space on a flat top grill. They need a lot of surface area to brown properly. It’s an issue for a busy breakfast place. And what folks in your area call “home fries” are viewed by a majority of restaurant customers a more sophisticated and higher values. So many breakfast joints make the decision to go with the cut up fried potatoes, which use half the grill space.

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      1. Hughbike

        Raincheck, I think you are onto something there. Having been a short order cook in several previous lives ( and may again, who knows!?) my experience matches your description exactly. As to home fries having more caché, I seem to remember even the Cracker Barrel having something called the 'Skillet' whereby a pile of breakfast is served over home fries...ooo lala and prolly pretty tasty!

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    3. Avatar photo
      John D. Wright

      The reason is that most restaurants cannot make real home fries. Real home fries (or better named fried potatoes) are divine. The chains just deep fry them which makes them meh. So like you, I just order hash browns and if in a sit down restaurant these are tolerable. The oblong shaped fast food version though is atrocious.

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      1. Hughbike

        If they aren't too busy I like to ask the grill cook to put mine under the weight on the griddle- this helps them get a little more crunchy. They parboil the potatoes then cook them in batches on the back of the griddle w/ onions. I have had the those deep fried previously frozen nuggets as well- Yuck!

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  7. Avatar photo
    Jean-Christophe Jouffrey

    Dear Sarah Isgur,

    "A sign that our polarization is only getting worse"

    As a spectator, I have been struck over the past few years with how, right or left, many of the people who find Trump personally repulsive, actually share the same fundamental worldview with him.

    Yesterday, I was stuck in a Dispatch's comment section, with a half-literate "Native" speaker (of a significant personal anti-Trump bend), who thought that "opponent" and "enemy" meant exactly the same thing and were interchangeable, and who invoked to prove it the authority of a thesaurus...

    The very type of attitude and justification which the morons of the populist extreme right would use, to "explain" everything from their vote for Trump to their support for January 6th.

    The very type of fake "authority" required for a Puritanical moral confusion, where comparisons and analogies are no longer permitted, but only "equations". One must be "pure" and exactly like us, or one is purged. There is no place for variations and differences, they are all signs of deviance.

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    1. Mazzz

      Think of it this way: if you were in the process of surviving a zombie apocalypse, the act of meeting someone you didn't know would probably initially involve determining the likelihood that he/she would kill you in your sleep (or in your wake). Once you've established that this is not likely to happen, you can then spend time deciding if you agree with his/her preference for rat goulash or pigeon pie.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Jean-Christophe Jouffrey

        Dear Mazzz,

        Flight 93 or Zombie Apocalypse... it is the same worldview, which justifies anything.

        Thanks for the supporting evidence. 😉

        PS: same delusion for those who think that getting rid of Putin will resolve the problems in Ukraine. Chances are that his replacement will be worse. No need to point out that he is not "tough" enough.

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        1. Mazzz

          "...it is the same worldview, which justifies anything."

          It certainly justifies *thinking* anything. Actually *acting* on those thoughts however is where it all hits the fan. But you make an excellent point, backed up by extensive research: humans are notoriously bad at assessing relative risk. Many people perceive a monumental risk in what is happening now. Is it possible to talk them out of it?

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          1. Avatar photo
            Jean-Christophe Jouffrey

            Dear Mazzz,

            "Is it possible to talk them out of it?"

            By looking at the actual historical record (not reading historians with an agenda).

            The USA electing a would-be dictator, who would then do a successful US equivalent of the 2 December 1851, which is what the 6th of January was, would not be "The End of America As We Know It". Other current liberal democratic countries have gone through successive phases of dictatorship, and come out of it, still being the same countries.

            It is extremely seldom that a crisis in a country is existential or ontological.

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  8. Tcoyne1707

    Hi Sarah,

    Regarding the differences between the two parties - I can't identify with either the left or the right.

    I have to believe there are a lot of us in the same boat.

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    1. Mazzz

      If I may ask, what compromises do you feel unable to make in order to identify with the left?

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  9. Avatar photo
    Jean-Christophe Jouffrey

    Dear Sarah Isgur,

    "The VRA requires minorities to have the same “opportunity as other members of the electorate to participate in the political process and to elect representatives of their choice.”"

    Is there a more disgusting, primitive and racist thought, a true denial of humanity, than that only people who "look" like you, can "represent" you?

    PS: Think also of those who believe that if God made people "in his image", it means that God looks like a human being, and that "the hand of God" is to be taken literally.

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    1. Mazzz

      It only makes sense if much of your life (or your parents' or grandparents' life) has been deeply affected by what they look like. In that case, the importance of "look" has been imposed from without.

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      1. Avatar photo
        Jean-Christophe Jouffrey

        Dear Mazzz,

        Cultural appropriation, or embracing the white oppressive patriarchal values... how unwoke🤣

        As I have said many times, anti-Racists share the very same worldview which they pretend to oppose.

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        1. Mazzz

          "...anti-Racists share the very same worldview which they pretend to oppose."

          That's quite a broad brush. So you are saying it is literally impossible to be against racism without being for it?

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            Jean-Christophe Jouffrey

            Dear Mazzz,

            Now, who is using a broad brush, and going completely out of the frame?

            What I am saying is that most current anti-Racists are espousing a racist worldview.

            Like many people, who refuse to be forced in false categories, I oppose both. I am truly anti-race.

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  10. Avatar photo
    The Bell Tower

    The difference you’re leaving out is it’s easy to see that someone is black or white. It’s not easy to know someone’s political persuasion unless they are open about it. I think this world of polarization you’re talking about exists at the margins, on Twitter and in the utterly out of touch media.

    Most of us go to work, raise our kids, hang out with our dogs and neighbors and don’t know what’s happening in these idiot bubbles or have almost bottomless contempt for all of it if we do.

    The Great Sort is probably real but I wonder how much of it is driven by politics and how much is just people of certain political persuasions do a lot of the same things or like a lot of the same places.

    I have numerous super liberal friends for whom I would take bullets. I even have a sort of party crew consisting of a radical left wing guy, a libertarian, a conventional Democrat and me, a Remnanty conservative. We’re all neighbors, by the way.

    Just because those imbeciles in Congress don’t get along doesn’t mean the rest of us don’t.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Bel

      If we go back to the Waffle House map, or any other red/blue map, we have to remember that no where is 100% anything politically. A few districts top out at 90% but there's a lot of 60/40 and 30/70 districts, even if they are consistently red or blue.

      In most cases if you get 10 neighbors together who all voted at least 3-4 voted for the non-dominant party in any given area. Add in the people who don't vote, plus the reality of most individuals holding a mix of political positions, and the great sort isn't quite so sorted.

      I live in a district that is close to 50/50 purple and I think that is healthier; people tread more lightly with opinions when they are aware there isn't a dominant view point. It's not necessary though, as long as we remember the minority percentage exists and that there will always be blue areas in red states and red in blue.

      Queen Imbecile Marjorie received 65% the vote in her district, which probably has more then 1 Waffle House, but that leaves 3-4 people in any group of 10 voters that did not vote for her.

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      1. Avatar photo
        The Bell Tower

        Easy. Let’s not drag Waffle House through the mud!

        I speak openly about my opinion without fear everywhere - except at work. That’s a problem especially because my employer is free to shove bogus propaganda down my throat all they want. But I don’t have much of a solution for that either.

        I like your breakdown of the sort though. That’s putting specificity around my belligerent opinion that I was thinking about but not articulating.

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    2. Hughbike

      Heart heart heart....I am a lefty w/ a Dispatch sub and appreciate the *HECK* outta this post

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