The Sweep: The 2020 Election in Seven Graphics

Now that the dust has settled a bit, it's time to pick through the data.

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I hope everyone had a wonderful and healthy Thanksgiving—healthy, in this case, referring to COVID-19 and not the number of sticks of butter that were used. Lots to be thankful for over here, including all of you who subscribe to this newsletter and especially the comments section, which I consume with joy every Wednesday … and it turns out the Brisket loves pumpkin. 

Over the course of the week, I was thinking about the month that felt like it lasted a year in the year that felt like it lasted a decade. There’s so much data to sift through, and we’ve still got the two Georgia races to grapple with. But another thing I am particularly grateful for this season are the folks who can make all that data sing by visualizing it in new ways or just ways to help us make sense of it. So this week’s newsletter is dedicated to the seven graphics that made me stop and think the most this week. 

In case you didn’t notice: the polls were wrong again. This graphic highlights just how skewed the polls were against Republicans in 2020 by state. The national polls are under “US” and are just right of center. After two cycles in a row of such large misses despite assurances from polling companies, expect a lot of polling caveats from the media and pundits for the next four years. (Via Bruce Mehlman, former Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Technology Policy under President George W. Bush.)

The polarization continues and accelerates. The Wall Street Journal looked at landslide counties since 1980—places where either presidential candidate won by at least 20 points more than their national total. In 1980 (first graphic), voters in landslide counties accounted for about 4 percent of the vote share—or 391 counties nationwide. By 2016, that number had risen to 30 percent, and it was the first year there were more landslide counties than counties that were within 5 points of the national outcome. This November (second graphic), there were 1,726 landslide counties—equaling 35 percent of voters. (Via the Wall Street Journal.)

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ray Salemi

    It would have been interesting to color the WSJ red and blue. It appears that Democrats are constantly fighting closer races.

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    Julie from Texas

    Thank you for that last graphic! I've been saying for years that the Baby Boomers need to move aside and let Gen X take a shot at things. I'm not dissing anyone personally, but the focus always seems to go from Baby Boomers to Millennials, with little acknowledgment that there's a generation in between there that would like a shot at leadership, thank you very much. Then again, if it doesn't happen, we Gen Xers will go with our usual shrug and "Oh well, whatever, never mind."

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    Ann-Marie Inglis

    thank you again for your research and thoroughness, I am a huge fan of all the Dispatch produces.
    so my comment, I am a Tech worker and my partner is in oil and gas, we hold post graduate degrees and live in a 'blueberry' in Texas. I've been here 6 years now, and whilst not a citizen (an aussie for my sins!) I have become fascinated by american politics. I am both intrigued and somewhat appalled by how Texas is so reliably republican and when I raise this with my ex-pats friends and co-workers I am find they cant explain it to me (hence why listening to y'all helps me make sense of this) ......I guess I live in a bubble in my "blueberry"

    anyway, the graphs on income and STEM education and how these align politically says it all to me, I find it absolutely a truism of the city in which I live, and how as a member of the tech world, I am want truth and science and facts and objective reality, not alternative facts, culture wars, bullying and lies (call out to mudskipper for his/her/they excellent post in this thread)

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  4. E. Ross

    Always enlightening. My friends continue to be impressed by the depth of my knowledge on the election. thanks for making me look brilliant!

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  5. Pawpaw

    As a STEM educator: I trust that expecting my students to think, and to be lifelong readers will enable them to vote wisely over time, instead of wedded to one party. But that depends on both parties supporting forward-looking policies which create jobs, such as infrastructure and green energy. As a native Georgian and current VA resident, perhaps DEM strength will encourage Republican platforms, candidates and leaders to be forward-thinking re: energy and environment. At least give STEM professionals reasons to consider both parties!
    Glad the Brisket enjoys pumpkin! As it's a nutrient-dense food, unlike sweetened, processed ones that can dominate holiday meals...butter and beef whole foods as well, again with much better nutritional profiles than sweets.

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  6. Matt D

    When do we find out why the polls were wrong? 2016 polls seemed to be unfairly hit. 2020 polls continue to appear to just be wrong. I've seen the late appearance of "Defund the Police" as a potential swing, but how long does it take to really find strong reasons behind the failures?

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  7. Mary Stine

    Of course the brisket loves pumpkin! My son was such a pumpkin lover that he got in the food line at a family reunion as a small child and marched out with just a whole pumpkin pie! One of my husband's sharp-eyed aunts, a second grade teacher, noticed. Upon questioning, he admitted that he intended to eat the entire pie himself! He was apprised of the rule of food sharing at reunions and has behaved well ever since. There is, however, a food fight over the banana pudding. This is a family reunion held on a Midwest farmstead that is on the historic register. It has been a tradition in my husband's family for over 150 years.
    I think respect for tradition is one of the appeals of the GOP to many rural and small town voters, along with respect for self reliance and hard work.

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  8. rob

    Great summary! it really simplifies the realignment down into visible pieces.

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    David V

    Someone help me out: landslide counties went from 4% of the total to 35% of the total -- so almost a 9x increase. But in total numbers, we went from 391 to 1726, which is more like a 4.4x increase. What am I missing here?

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      Sarah Isgur vertical-nib Author

      Great catch bc I didn't write it very clearly. The % is the share of the vote in those counties...not just the counties themselves.

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    John Russell

    Under the paragraph headed "The polarization continues and accelerates" Sarah refers, in turn, to "the graphic on the left" and "the graphic on the right." I only see one graphic (though I admit it has an above and a below). What's the deal?

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    1. Avatar photocircle-angle-nib
      Sarah Isgur vertical-nib Author

      thanks for flagging--i asked the editor and it was an uploading error. he's fixing now! (although i'm told they still won't be side by side)

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      Angie

      I didn't get it either...but, I think the bottom graph is from 1980, and the top graph with the grey squares is 2020 without the map, but is right and left

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      1. Avatar photo
        John Russell

        I clicked on the source Sarah cited in the hope that it would have a recognizable left and right but ran into a paywall.

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