The Sweep: Will the Senate Come Down to Pennsylvania?

Plus: The ramifications of gerrymandering.

By and
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Campaign Quick Hits

Of All the Gin Joints: Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg traveled to New Hampshire this week “to highlight the benefits of the bipartisan infrastructure law.” It is true that New Hampshire has a top tier Senate race in 2022 as freshman Democrat Maggie Hassan defends her seat. But a bunch of other states have top tier Senate races, too. Pennsylvania is closer. North Carolina is bigger. Arizona has better weather. Georgia has better food. Nevada is more diverse. But for some reason, politicians sure love going to New Hampshire …

Why Can’t Democrats Stop Themselves: I don’t even have anything to add to this. 

Only 2 percent of those polled refer to themselves as Latinx, while 68 percent call themselves “Hispanic” and 21 percent favored “Latino” or “Latina” to describe their ethnic background, according to the survey from Bendixen & Amandi International, a top Democratic firm specializing in Latino outreach.

More problematic for Democrats: 40 percent said Latinx bothers or offends them to some degree and 30 percent said they would be less likely to support a politician or organization that uses the term …

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  1. Avatar photo
    Ben Connelly

    “ Fact of the Week: “In Florida, for the first time in modern history, registered Republican voters outnumber Democrats,” notes Anthony Izaguirre of the Associated Press. ”

    That actually surprises me.

    At this rate our country will be run by Dr. Oz, Ye (formerly known as Kanye), Trump Jr., and Peter Griffin by 2030.

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    Walt Hilker

    Sarah, thanks to you and Audrey for another excellent Sweep. (I laughed out loud while reading your Quick Hit about Nunes.)

    I'm a bit confused about gerrymandering and California. On the one hand, the latest CA maps "'would give Democrats 76% of the state’s congressional seats with just 59% of the statewide votes.'" On the other hand, CA is among the states that has "ceded primary line drawing authority" to independent commissions.

    Did CA's independent commission still yield a sharply increased partisan outcome in drawing its lines? If so, should I infer that independent commissions are not the same thing as non-partisan commissions?

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  3. GusABQ

    Check out New Mexico. The gerrymandered district map designed to eliminate the lone Republican congresswoman is on the governor’s desk.

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  4. Sue Sylvia

    While I've never been to Georgia to be able to compare, I have to say that there's plenty of great eateries in New Hampshire! 😁

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      Sarah Isgur vertical-nib Author

      Copper Door is my fav...but otherwise I do love the abundance of dunkins.

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    Pat @ Tavi Hall

    NC primaries have already been pushed back by two months to fight over redistricting. And Madison Cawthorne had announced he's fleeing his district to run against what had been the picked canidate in a neighboring congressional district, only to find Josh Remillard still hot on his tail. I'll be curious to see the results.

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  6. James D

    I have no hope of it ever happening, but gerrymandering is something that increasingly looks like it needs federal legislation.

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    David M

    Thanks for another great Sweep

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    PaulH

    There is no doubt that gerrymandering happens, but quantifying how large an impact it has is really difficult. For example, just because a state is 60/40 one party over another does not mean that representatives should end up being split 60/40. If people of each party were distributed evenly throughout the state (and everyone voted for their party's candidate) then the 60% party would get 100% of the seats. No state is like that, but in a state like California that is so overwhelming D, it is not surprising that that Dems get more seats than their percentage registration would suggest because they have a majority in so many areas. Conversely, in many states, D's are densely self-packed into urban areas resulting in a lower number of seats than their percentage registration would suggest (because unpacking them would require the creation of really odd shaped districts that split urban areas).

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    1. Avatar photo
      SL

      I found this interesting.

      https://mag.uchicago.edu/law-policy-society/tackling-gerrymandering-geometry

      The mathematician was interviewed on a Quanta Magazine podcast. The question is more complicated than it may appear to those on the left.

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        PaulH

        Yes, it is a good article and it illustrates how difficult it is to grapple with even one element under consideration in drawing electoral boundaries.

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    Ed P

    Dr Oz is such a huckster fraud. His nonsense “arsenic in apple juice” publicity stunt was a major headache and loss of business for me. And it was total nonsense, based on badly mangled methods totally inappropriately used.

    He’ll fit right in with this Maga party.

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    SL

    At this point the Dispatch columnists use the term "Latinx" more often than all the democrats I know combined, including my colleagues at a major university. Is this your way to fan the flames of outrage while pretending to be reasonable?

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      PaulH

      I see the term used regularly but it is not dominant; I am not sure the point of the article was as much to fan the flames of outrage as to show how self-defeating the term is.

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        SL

        You are probably correct. But I think the right “needs” the term because it’s a useful (and probably effective) campaign tool.

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      JohnM.

      Then you haven't been watching MSNBC or reading columns by NYT/WaPo columnists.

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      1. Avatar photo
        John Robert

        Or the on-air folks at NPR. They're also fond of "queer", which plucks my last gay nerve. I'll forego the diatribe as to why.

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        SL

        I read the NYT columns. The only “opinionators” who use the terms are the conservatives Stephens and Douthat.

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        1. Avatar photo
          JohnM.

          https://www.nytimes.com/search?query=latinx

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          1. Avatar photo
            SL

            Lots of mentions for sure, but (I think) it’s calmed down since the term came in for criticism by both the left and right. I attended an academic talk (yes, I work in the lion’s den) that had “Latinx” in the title. The speaker was challenged during Q/A because the talk only dealt with Mexican immigrants. (“Why not just refer to them as Mexicans?”). Good question. 🤔

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      PWLaw

      I have never seen the term used other than on Twitter, which most people in this country do not follow. It’s blown far out of proportion on Twitter, as are many topics.

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      1. Avatar photo
        David Chen

        My friend who works at SpaceX posted pictures of their merch store cause another friend asked if he gets an employee discount. The first thing I saw was a $15 'Men's LATINX T-shirt'. It's got some weird retro color art thing. I have no idea what I'm looking at.

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