Do a Majority of Republicans Think Trump Will Be Reinstated?

No.

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An article from Conservative Brief, a right-wing media blog, claims in its headline that “[A] Majority Of Republicans Believe Trump Will Be Reinstated As President This Year.”

The article references a survey conducted by Politico and Morning Consult, in which respondents were asked, among other questions, “How likely do you think it is that former President Donald Trump will be reinstated as U.S. President this year, if at all?”

Among Republicans, 17 percent said they thought it was “very likely.” A further 12 percent said it was “somewhat likely.” The Conservative Brief article accurately details these findings within the article itself, noting that “almost a third of Republican voters believe Donald Trump will be reinstated as president this year.” It’s headline claim that “a majority” of Republican voters think the former president will be reinstated is, however, inaccurate: The actual number of Republican respondents to the Politico/Morning Consult survey who think there is at least somewhat a chance Trump is returned to office this year is 29 percent.

If you have a claim you would like to see us fact check, please send us an email at factcheck@thedispatch.com. If you would like to suggest a correction to this piece or any other Dispatch article, please email corrections@thedispatch.com.

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  1. Avatar photo
    Matt J

    My god, this is the dumbest shit ever. This is like when Fox News had a poll where the results somehow tallied to 120%.
    How do you fuck math up that badly? I know the guy who writes the headline isn't the guy who writes the article, but could he at least be bothered to read the article?

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  2. Alex DeLarge

    I think a study would show that 80% of Trump supporters won't respond to pollsters. And 90% of those who do respond are just trolling the pollsters.

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    1. Ben P

      Fewer than 10% of all adults respond to pollsters. Probably lower for Trump supporters.

      As for trolls, it definitely happens. I don't know of any studies on how often Trump supporters troll pollsters, but here's a fun one about trolling COVID pollsters who called people up asking if they were injesting cleaning products to ward off COVID:

      https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.11.20246694v3

      "In a series of studies totaling close to 1400 respondents, we show that 80-90% of reports of household cleanser ingestion are made by problematic respondents. These respondents report impossible claims such as ‘recently having had a fatal heart attack’ and ‘eating concrete for its iron content’ at a similar rate to ingesting household cleaners."

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      1. Alex DeLarge

        Ha Ha. Great study: "Once inattentive, mischievous, and careless respondents are taken out of the analytic sample we find no evidence that people ingest cleansers to prevent Covid-19 infection." On the other hand, who would ingest cleanser if they weren't already "inattentive, mischievous, and careless."

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    2. Mack

      If what you say is true, then the study should only have in the neighborhood of a 20% response rate…and probably at least 90% of those who choose to respond would say they’d never do any such thing.

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      1. Alex DeLarge

        IDK, It depends on what percentage of the population are Trump supporters and how they choose to troll. Also pollsters often use weighted values. For example, if they only get 20% Republicans in the sample but they think the actual population percentage is 30%, they will just multiply the Republican answers by 1.5. If they do that for the subcategory of "Trump supporters," they will just be multiplying any skew in the original sample that exists due to a selection bias in favor of trolls.

        Polling is a dark art, and very subject to manipulation of the sample selected.

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        1. Mack

          Oh. I thought the satire was obvious, but maybe not...

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  4. Avatar photo
    Victor Clairmont

    It’s the same 30% that stuck with Trump in 2016 that carried him to the GOP win.

    They are loyal, I will give them that.

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  5. Avatar photo
    Andrew

    Hilary Clinton’s ‘half of Republicans are a basket of deplorable’ comment was an exaggeration by about 20% apparently.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Michael Darwin

      Did she say half? I think the GOP was bigger when she said it, so I think she's off by more than that. Regardless, believing false information isn't enough to make someone "deplorable" in my eyes. Gullible, naive, foolish maybe, but not deplorable.

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        Andrew

        It’s not just false information Michael, it’s malicious and seditious. Gimme a break.

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  6. Joe Curtis

    LOL

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  7. Avatar photo
    Ed P

    Thanks for correcting the record but its not exactly comforting.

    What I can’t grasp is why the rest of you have not left that party yet. The populist have stolen your party, and made its values totally incompatible with the Republican party I knew 25 years ago. What could possibly be holding you back? Hate of liberals is the only thing that seems feasible.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Michael Darwin

      I live in a closed primary state. If I wish to have a say, however negligible, I have to stay in the party. There is also not yet a viable alternative for me. Also, it is a bit like boiling salt water. The more water that evaporates, the saltier the water left behind. I am not yet ready to evaporate and leave the party I have belonged to for 30 years to the salty populists.

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      Victor Clairmont

      Speaking as more of an outsider, that’s like asking why didn’t democrats leave the party after the civil war.

      People can be complicated.

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    3. Mack

      Speaking as a former Republican, before I left the party behind — for many years at least, and perhaps forever — I remember worrying that enough people like me leaving the GOP would swing things too far to the left. Without a corresponding exodus of sensible Democrats, the extreme left might gain enough power to change our nation beyond recognition or restoration.

      Then in the aftermath of January 6, I finally realized that between the extreme right and the extreme left, this warping of America was going to happen anyway. So I left, qualms-free. And I wish that more people would forsake our two broken political parties and join me.

      However, in the absence of a major and sensible third party, there is a coherent defense to be made in favor of the idea that one should try to befriend the bear in order to keep the tiger at bay. It’s not one I agree with, and it’s certainly not one I subscribe to. But it’s one I understand.

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    4. Richard Kennedy

      I agree. City Hall hasn't opened yet. I'd rather not change affiliation over phone or mail.

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  8. Avatar photo
    Nick H

    Only 29%. /insert eyeroll gif here/ I'm really hoping that for these people this is just their way of expressing support for Trump and not what they seriously believe.

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    1. Avatar photo
      Show Jay Janney the 🚪!

      If I am honest I am still rooting forRTrump to grow 50' tall and shoot lasers out of his eyes. Not for reasons of justice, but just because it doesn't happen very often, and would be memorable.

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      Mudskipper

      Yes, I sometimes think (hope) that a lot of respondents really know better, but answer in a way that gives them emotional satisfaction.

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  9. Avatar photo
    Chris L

    This should be linked to the article here on The Dispatch about headline writing and how this is becoming increasingly irresponsible lately.

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  10. Daniel Sanders

    That must be the third that never read The Constitution.

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    1. Joe Curtis

      They read the "[w]e hold these truths to be self evident ... " part of the Declaration and then made up their own new truths to fill in the rest.

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