Trump Must Decide Whether He’s Campaigning Against ‘Sleepy Joe’ or ‘Dangerous Joe’

The president must win over voters who don’t like him if he wants to be re-elected, and he needs a strategy.

By
227

If Donald Trump is going to defeat Joe Biden he’s going to have to define Joe Biden. It’s not looking good right now.

 It’s forgotten now, but there was a time when some of the crazier right-wing types thought President Dwight Eisenhower was a Soviet agent. The idea was popularized by the John Birch Society, which was sort of the QAnon of its day. When asked about this nutty theory, Russell Kirk, a renowned conservative intellectual, famously responded, “Ike’s not a communist, he’s a golfer.”

 In fairness to Ike, he was also one of the most successful military leaders in world history, successfully overseeing the invasion of Europe and the defeat of Nazi Germany, among other resume highlights. But Kirk’s quip captured the otherworldliness of the idea that President Eisenhower—who worked assiduously to fortify the NATO alliance against the Soviet Union—was really a pawn of Stalin.

 We’re in a somewhat similar moment these days. The Trump campaign recently released an ad claiming that Joe Biden was “Endorsed by Osama Bin Laden.” Put aside the fact that Bin Laden was unavailable for comment since he’s been dead for a while—killed on the orders of the Obama administration in which Biden served. The Trump campaign’s defense of the ad revolves around the fact that bin Laden apparently thought it would be good if al-Qaeda could kill Obama, putting Biden in charge.

But the “endorsed by Bin Laden” silliness is part of a larger effort to paint Biden as a dangerous figure. Trump has called him a “puppet of the radical left.” He’s been at pains to claim that Biden will be the poster boy for defunding the police and will grease the skids for America’s descent into socialism.

So far, Biden has been able to deflect much of this. At the beginning of the George Floyd protests he rejected calls for defunding the police. In the primaries he opposed Medicare for All and abolishing ICE.

The Trump team’s response has been to undercut its own messaging by also claiming that Biden is sleepy and boring and not really radical at all. You see the problem right? Either he’s a dangerous Jacobin or he’s a low-energy run-of-the-mill pol.

Again and again, the Trump campaign smears Biden with mud with one hand and then cleans him off with the other. They claim he will be a Trojan Horse for the Black Lives Matter movement and the Defund the Police agenda, and they denounce him for his record of putting more cops on the street. They attack him for working with segregationist senators while playing footsie with Confederate symbols.

The Trump campaign thinks it can resolve this contradiction by arguing that he’ll be a pushover for the radical left. On the merits, this is not as absurd a claim as they sometimes make it sound. Biden is a consummate go-along, get-along, Democratic politician who never positioned himself as a centrist so much as a difference-splitter between liberal Democrats and more conservative ones. In other words, Biden’s not a socialist, he’s a hack.

But, as the polling indicates, he’s a serviceable one because a boring, likable, hack sounds pretty good to a lot of people right now.

Trump’s problem is that he needs the votes from people who don’t like him. Contrary to a lot of myth making about the power of his base, Trump has always needed the voters who don’t like him. The base got him close to the finish line (in the Electoral College, not the popular vote) in 2016, but the voters who put him over the top were those who disliked Hillary Clinton more than they disliked Trump. A late September 2016 Pew poll found that 11 percent of Trump voters would be disappointed if Trump won.

Without those voters, Trump would have surely lost in 2016. And he needs them this time even more. He can lose a few points among his base—who cares if he wins Alabama by 5 instead of 10?—but he desperately needs Trump-exhausted former Trump voters in the suburbs of swing states. And he’s losing them in droves.

It’s way too late to make those voters like Trump. There’s theoretically time to convince them to fear Biden more than they fear Trump. But to do that, they need to come up with a disciplined message that Trump can deliver not at his base but at the voters who will decide the election. And there’s no sign they know how to do that.

Photograph by Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images.

227
By
Comments (227)
Join The Dispatch to participate in the comments.
 
  1. Richard Fulmer

    Whoever wins in November, America loses.

    Collapse
  2. Avatar photo
    Soniak21

    My dad is a very intelligent man, if a little over-saturated in conservative media, and he's convinced Biden's senile. He says it like it's such a well-known fact that there could hardly be any pushback - like calling Bill Clinton a philanderer. He just thinks it's true. And I've heard a lot of the same on conservative Twitter.

    Honestly, I don't see it. If you watch Biden at any length, he's... well, he's Biden. And for Biden, he's fine. Apt to say goofy stuff, obviously, but he always was. The idea that he "can't string two sentences together" (a talking point I've heard a lot lately) is totally false. But I'm guessing someone's made some good montages of Biden gaffing it up, and some folks are convinced.

    If the Trump team knew what they were doing, THIS is the line they'd stick to. Not because it's strictly true (it isn't), but because Biden is obviously susceptible to it. People buy it. And you can count on him to say enough weird stuff to keep propping up this perception.

    The risk, of course, is setting expectations so low that he can blow them away with a good debate. Maybe this is what the none-too-disciplined Trump team are afraid of. Maybe they think they need a backup plan in Evil Biden. But Jonah's right: trying for both is like a schizophrenic person having an argument with himself.

    Collapse
    1. Deleted Comment

      This comment has been deleted

      1. Avatar photo
        Logical

        Its called projection

        Collapse
      2. Avatar photo
        Soniak21

        I agree with most or all of that - and as for my dad, he's making progress. When I saw him on Fathers' Day, I think it was the first time he ever said he was "embarrassed" by Trump. He'll probably still vote for him, but it's something. And at least he's not in a swing state.

        I should add that I don't ultimately think the "senility" line is that damaging. I think the people who buy it (or say they do) are overwhelmingly committed Trump voters, not swing voters who'll be swayed by it. And I do think that unless he's *uncommonly* bad, he'll neutralize this attack in the debates. When persuadable voters see he CAN string two sentences together, that will be that.

        And yes, the part about glass houses should go without saying. For President Word Salad to even "go there" is beyond absurd - but then again, it's hard to think of anything here in Trumpistan that isn't.

        Collapse
        1. Deleted Comment

          This comment has been deleted

  3. Tommy

    I'm beginning to think that the discussion board of "The Dispatch" is the electronic equivalent of "push-polling", where Political Parties evade the restrictions of the Federal Elections Campaign Act.

    When someone self-identifies as "a life-long member" of a Political Party, it's a clue.

    Collapse
  4. Airish

    I understand the distaste for Trump, which I generally share. He's not a good president. But Jonah and others have concocted this gauzy image of a wacky, but generally moderate Uncle Joe who we can live with for four years. To use a Thanksgiving dinner analogy, Uncle Joe is a bit pervy, and makes inappropriate but harmless comments to the nieces ("Wow, looks like you're getting quite a chest there!") and is a little too touchy with the young girls, but is generally a fun guy and makes you laugh with his crazy comments. Uncle Don, on the other hand, is the three times divorced cranky uncle who is no fun and says different kinds of inappropriate or mean things ("Look at Johnny in that la di da interpretative dance program. Always knew the kid was a homo.")

    These "who would you want to have a beer with" perceptions aside, Jonah again jokes about the fact that Biden is far down the dementia pike and is not going to control things in the "Biden" administration, other than maybe when naptime is. Sure, they will trot him out from time to time to read a short statement off a cue card or something until they ring 25th Amendment is called or he "decides" to step down, but he's not going to be calling the shots. People like Symone Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez will, and in all likelihood, VP Kamala Harris or someone with similar political views.

    So what are you going to get in a Biden administration? DC Statehood and with it a virtually permanent Democratic Senate. Reparations for blacks and American Indians (this is what Biden read off a card recently: "I can't believe that, whatever it is, the African American community would not support what I'm talking about [i.e., more free stuff] in addition to fair reparations." You're going to see Title IX reforms reversed and the process made even more unfair. You're going to see essentially open borders (things have changed dramatically on the left since Obama, so don't cite what happened then to claim it won't happen). The ACLU and Neera Tanden picking judges instead of the Federalist Society.

    The only thing the could stop all this and lot more would be a Republican controlled Senate, and shockingly to me, many professed conservatives on this site and elsewhere say they want the Dems to control everything to somehow punish the voters for Trump. The faux "conservatives" like the Lincoln Project crowd are not only spending money to defeat Trump, they are also buying ads to try to trash people like McSally, Ernst, and Gardner. To me, if you claim you are a conservative who doesn't like Trump and you simultaneously work to make Chuck Schumer Majority Leader, I'm going to call you out for lying about the "conservative" part.

    Collapse
  5. Avatar photo
    Earl King

    Completely agree. Trump messaging is horrific. Spending time on Joe Scarborough, a political weasel, wastes time he doesn't have. Trump's believes his own rhetoric, while it's something every pol must do, his of late has been politically toxic. Biden's immigration policy would bring back the caravans. The Iran deal would likely return. He has already said fracking would end and we would not have any new pipelines or approval for replacement pipelines that carry Hydrocarbons.
    Biden economic policies wouldn't be as robust..and its likely his EPA will declare ponds on farms waterways again. Deregulation would end. Trump's only chance is to run on popular ideas.
    He also needs to depress the African American vote and Hispanic vote for Biden. He has plenty of accomplishments to run on. Polls do suggest he has more support in those communities.
    So far he is the only one to have actually done anything on police reform.
    Without discipline it is over for Trump. But I completely disagree with you that a Biden Administration will be benign. Biden polices are dangerous too much of America business and life. While we survived Obama just imagine a Kamala Harris as VP or W. Warren....good god. I am sure you believe if Trump were no reelected all the lawlessness would end. I'm not so sure...College Professors have done and continue to turn out America hating ignorant citizens. Several generations who don't believe in the aspirational America.

    Collapse
    1. Mary Stine

      Earl, you may be right, time will tell. but you are forgetting something important: Joe Biden has many Republican friends of longstanding. He has a long track record of reaching for bipartisanship over party. He is a deeply, truly devoted father and husband who seems to really understand how important a strong family is for everyone. I feel those long held precepts will guide him the most.
      I also think you overestimate Democrats desire for partisanship and far left actions. Please remember that over 65% of African American voters are pro-life and over 35% pf Dems overall are pro-life. Most of us DO want immigration reform, we just want it to be fair, not racist and not cruel. Any Dem who has run a business is still grinding their teeth over the Patriot Act and the stupid paperwork, not to mention the folderol farmers and veterinarians were put through for that. We have common ground here: common sense legislation that actually works for common citizens!

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        Earl King

        I think you underestimate the venal behavior Democrats engage in. Nancy Pelosi is not Bi-partisan. There is only one reason the Senate did take up the Tim Scott Bill...of which about 75% or more is in agreement with the House version. The idea that A) Polcie Reform would be a GOP Bill and B) That Trump would sign the bill likely gave Democrats chest pain...They were and are never going to allow that. Never. Chuck Schumer has engage in trench warfare over the silliest of Bills and Appointments simply to satisfy the #Resistance. Finally a number of his colleagues have called for the elimination of the filibuster or 60 vote rule....Democrats will rue the day that happens...It's never been true that one party rules forever. Compromise is a dirty word to Democrats.

        Collapse
  6. Avatar photo
    Ray Salemi

    Is dispensing reelection advice to the Republicans just a bad habit?

    Because the Republican candidate is Trump and I’m thinking the ink/bits could have been put to better use.

    Collapse
  7. Mary Stine

    Trump is a textbook narcissist: he has to see every event, every situation, every encounter as being about him alone. It would be impossible for him to develop a consistent narrative about anyone else; hell, he can't even develop one about himself and that is all he cares about!
    He'll be like the blind man defining the attributes of the elephant: unable to describe the full animal, just rant about meaningless parts. And if Trump continues those small-minded rants, Biden will be able to swat those away like flies. As Ronald Reagan said "There you go again..."

    Collapse
  8. Avatar photo
    Logical

    Rich Lowry of NRO was demanding an apology from some imaginary lib villains to Gov of Florida just a few weeks ago!

    I know, I know, he is probably a hero to many here on TD staff carrying the flame of WFB. But for me, he is the definition of a partisan jackass, NOT a conservative "intellectual".

    Collapse
    1. Avatar photo
      Victor Clairmont

      Well, it's debatable. I will wait till more months go by and see the Covid count. Florida has actually been the most transparent and data filled, unlike all other 49 states. So that's a plus in a lot of negatives.

      And no, there was not a conspiracy to fudge numbers in Florida (Not you Logic just saying in general, If anyone still is using that line, looking at you Paul Krugman even though you don't read the comments of The Dispatch! he should though....we're a nice crew!)

      This thread is spot on in terms of breakdown for Florida:

      https://twitter.com/Avik/status/1276490546471677952

      But like I said, I will wait for more time to pass and look at the overall demographics in Florida and other states.

      Collapse
      1. Avatar photo
        Logical

        VC,
        It is not complicated. You trying too hard to justify a point of view which science doesn't give a damn about.

        This will end only one way. Herd Immunity. Whether we get there naturally first or through a vaccine is the question. The southern govs don't have a special science on their side...they don't have magical powers. Only power is held by the bug. It is just a matter of how avoid it until help comes.

        Collapse
        1. Avatar photo
          Victor Clairmont

          Science doesn't give a damn, but humanity does.

          After all, history is the story about us at the moment.

          You are 100% right on Herd Immunity.

          Collapse
    2. Avatar photo
      Logical

      P.S. If he has any integrity, he should apologize to the imaginary villains and refrain from writing for 13 years.

      Collapse
      1. Deleted Comment

        This comment has been deleted

  9. Avatar photo
    Sonofasailor35

    “a boring, likable, hack sounds pretty good to a lot of people right now.“

    Yes, it does. But I’m worried a lot more about Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, who will do more damage to our country, given the chance, than Biden. I used to think that Schumer was by far the worst of the two, but Pelosi has given him a run for the money with one of the most reprehensible things I’ve ever heard a politician say. When Tim Scott begged the Dems not to block his police reform bill, offering to let them put any amendments they wanted on the table, her response was “the Republicans are trying to get away with the murder of George Floyd.” Way to go, Nancy. Great way to get those Republicans on your side for your version of police reform. She knew when she let loose with that bit of verbal sewage that she was setting the chances of any reform at all at zero.

    Collapse
  10. Deleted Comment

    This comment has been deleted

Load More