An Enduring Memory

It’s the 19th anniversary of September 11, 2001, one of the most harrowing historical events ...

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It’s the 19th anniversary of September 11, 2001, one of the most harrowing historical events in living memory. Today, our podcast hosts reflect on their personal memories of the day as a launching point into a discussion about the United States’ current understanding of al-Qaeda nearly two decades later. In reality, we don’t talk about al-Qaeda much anymore other than within the context of Trump’s “endless wars” rhetoric. Just this week, the Trump administration announced that troops in Iraq will be reduced to 3,000. What’s more, peace negotiations are taking place with Taliban representatives, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and representatives of the Afghan government this weekend. So as Steve points out, “You’d be forgiven for thinking this is all over.” But as Dispatch Podcast guest Tom Joscelyn reminds us on today’s episode, “Al-Qaeda is still very much alive.” Though Tom concedes that there’s a lot you can criticize about U.S. military intervention post-9/11, “It’s much more common, in my experience, that people who are against the U.S. using military force or U.S. military action to play disconnect the dots than it is for some sort of a so-called hawk to overconnect the dots.” On today’s episode, Tom, Sarah, and Steve discuss American intelligence officials’ current misunderstanding of al-Qaeda, the UAE and Bahrain’s plans to normalize their relationship with Israel, and the real and imagined foreign threats to the upcoming election.

Show Notes:

–“Why ‘Outside-In’ Diplomacy Could Be the Key to Middle East Peace” by Jonathan Schanzer, “This 9/11 anniversary arrives with the end of the war on al-Qaeda well in sight” by Christopher Miller, director of the National Counterterrorism Center in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and “The Falling Man” by Thomas Junod.

-Tom Joscelyn’s Vital Interests newsletter for The Dispatch.

–30-day free trial of The Dispatch

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  1. WBS

    After 9-11, I vowed to fight this enemy until they were vanquished on the battlefield. Nearly 20 years later, I'm back in Afghanistan, on my 6th deployment with over 4+ years in Iraq/Afghanistan. When I joined up, I thought the wars would be over in a few years. Ha!

    I'm a big fan of TJ, though I disagree with his analysis quite a bit. He's spot on that the IC is largely fractured on Al-Qaeda. However, he's incorrect with the idea that the IC plays "disconnect the dot" because they're biased against military action. There's a substantial body of evidence that disputes this. The problem is that there's an abundance of reporting, some of it of various levels of accuracy, that analysts use to achieve their assessments. Further, not everybody has the luxury of focusing on terrorism their entire career. The IC is made up of thousands of analysts who are often swamped from target set to target set.

    This talking point about the Taliban being the counter-terrorism force for the US is quite absurd. TJ/LWJ make it sound like the US isn't out in the Afghanistan still schwacking the TB. It's funny because I just got out of a meeting with high ranking Afghan general who was effusive in praise for our support in this regard specifically We are still supporting the ANDSF when they're attacked.

    How are we endorsing the Taliban? Please explain that to me? Because we sidelined GIRoA?

    What is TJ/LWJ's path forward in Afghanistan? I keep hearing that if we want to leave, then that's fine, but we shouldn't help the Taliban. Fine. Do we just pack up and leave? What are the 2nd and 3rd order effects of such a decision? Lay it out for me.

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  2. PM

    Politicians are known to lie.

    What American politician is going to go before the American people and say, "We're losing. The terrorists are winning"?

    I'm going to use "terrorist" because I'm old fashioned like that :)

    What were we told about terrorists?

    1. They want to kill us.
    2. They only want to die.
    3. We cannot negotiate with them.

    With that understanding, then as long as terrorists live, then we're losing.

    But the ultimate problem is what? The ultimate problem is that as long as people are settling their differences with violence, then the violence continues.

    So why is it that so many are able to live their lives without resorting to violence?

    And yet so many others still seek violence.

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    Tracie

    Appreciated the mention of this piece:
    https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a48031/the-falling-man-tom-junod/

    I first read it when it was a couple of years old (published 9/9/2016.) Didn't realize it wasn't current til I shared it and a friend commented about what a great article it is. Seems to cross ideological divides.

    It seemed so current, perhaps because that event is so seared for those of us who lived through it. The people jumping was the hardest thing for me to emotionally process.

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    Victor Clairmont

    So for starters, I want to say thank you to Tom Joscelyn for being on the podcast and also his articles. I may not always agree with his analysis, but the information he provides I believe is vital for people wanting to seriously engage with middle east foreign policy, or to keep abreast of it.

    I agree with him on the middle east pull out. If you are going to pull out, acknowledge the consequences, tell the american people, and then leave. And for god's sake, do not strike a deal with the Taliban on the way out. It benefits us in no way, and the Taliban just wants recognition. They are going to continue to kill people regardless.

    On the connect the dot points, I kinda agree and disagree. Yes, there should not be all these schools that pop up to deny terrorists claims about who they are. Yet it all depends on what insurgences religious/political ideology is too. If someone claims to be Al Bagdady, we just say "No you're just crazy. He's dead. Here's his scrambled DNA when he blew himself up since he wouldn't surrender."

    ISIS for example, made specific end time theological claims, and Albur al Baghdadi made a specific claim from the Quran to help usher in an end time Caliphate. They believed the world would unite against them and they would be victorious over them in a battle of Armageddon type proportions. We know this from their own magazine/newspaper Dabiq دابق . They made no hidden agenda about what they wanted. They believed this so long as they were winning and taking ground in Syria. Faith was their guide. People were flocking across Europe to join their theological, zealot cause.

    Till they started losing. And Baghdadi was killed, as a certain politician (probably exaggerating) said, "Like a dog.".

    So Isis began crumbling. The recruits for their specific caused dried up. Their last true stronghold in Syria was shelled so heavily with artillery and bombs they walked out and surrender, pretending like they were going to resurge in the future. Wives that left America and Europe to join the Caliphate and become ISIS brides tried to desperately get back into their home countries they betrayed for a dying religious cause. That doesn't mean there isn't off shoots or fantical members still around, but when a group (or even a religion) loses it's main theological focus and reason for its existence, it either has to morph into something else or just disintegrates. This is why ISIS, as Thomas has pointed out in previous articles, is being absorbed by the Taliban.

    So the Taliban and Al Qaeda have never made the mistake ISIS made: making theological eschatology (study of end time events in religion) fundamental to the point they have to almost solely rely on it for their existence. Like this podcast points out, 9-11 was just one step to them trying to overthrow regional governments and establish the foothold in the middle east.

    Great podcast. I hope more people Steve, pay attention to the foreign policy podcasts. They really help even if one does not always agree.

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      Tracie

      Would love to give a short reply to one of your posts, Victor, but ya got a lot to reply to.

      "...the information he [T. Joscelyn] provides I believe is vital for people wanting to seriously engage with middle east foreign policy, or to keep abreast of it."
      _________________________________

      I'll place myself in that second category.

      "ISIS for example, made specific end time theological claims, and Albur al Baghdadi made a specific claim from the Quran to help usher in an end time Caliphate. They believed the world would unite against them and they would be victorious over them in a battle of Armageddon type proportions. We know this from their own magazine/newspaper Dabiq دابق . They made no hidden agenda about what they wanted. They believed this so long as they were winning and taking ground in Syria. Faith was their guide. People were flocking across Europe to join their theological, zealot cause.

      ...the Taliban and Al Qaeda have never made the mistake ISIS made: making theological eschatology (study of end time events in religion) fundamental to the point they have to almost solely rely on it for their existence."
      _________________________________

      That always gets my attention, because my maternal grandparents were fundamentalist evangelicals, and wow I spent a lot of my childhood and teen years contemplating Armageddon.

      I've been skeptical about Israel for years, in part because the very limited foreign policy awareness that I received via that formative environment was very pro-Israel - cuz they thought rebuilding Herod's Temple would usher the second coming, or at least was a sign, or something. (Had an admittedly naive and vague understanding, but the messengers weren't sophisticated.)

      The best reasons to maintain relations with Israel are in fact pragmatic, and about regional stability vs anything ideological, religious, cultural.

      The criticism of Obama I hear in this podcast is that he tried to deal directly with the Iranian regime, as they continue to promote terrorism all over Syria, Lebanon, the Arabian peninsula. As you point out, cutting a deal with the Taliban is questionably advised as well, never mind that they're sworn enemies of the Shiites and subscribe to more Medieval social beliefs than the Iranians.

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        Victor Clairmont

        Right? I am very familiar with fundamentalist. Many of them well meaning people, and I could sit here all day and go through different ways denominations view eschatology in Christianity from historicism, preterism, to futurism on how they interpret the Bible, specifically books like Daniel and Revelation.

        What most people don’t realize, is Islam has the same concepts. They have prophecy, ideas of how to interpret it, and both radically different views of interpretation. I am not saying anyone is wrong here (though if we seriously get into certain claims we can nix them based on their original codex’s/texts meaning but that’s a whole different game, which can be confused if a movement follows a claimed prophet rather than original texts I.E., Mormonism) but even ISIS was not operating in a vacuum of theological belief.

        For a completely different example, look how Catholicism at different points will make an argument for Just War theory, as opposed to Quakers who are pacifist.

        It’s a REEEEEEALLLLY wonkey discussion that most people in the media never step into.

        But how do you understand a country if you don’t understand a persons belief system that influences their decisions?

        I 100% that anything we do with Israel should be pragmatic, not theological by the way.

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          Tracie

          Mormons are a good example of being weary of founding texts and prophets. Based on what I know about Joseph Smith, he's not a guy I'd want to drive cross country with. On the other hand, no person I've met who was raised Mormon would I not consider asking to dog sit. These tend to be nice, normal people, for all the bizarreness of the Book of Mormon.

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          1. Ashleigh

            I know getting in to a conversation about Mormonism wasnt the original intent of the post, but I wanted to jump in and as a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints ...AKA Mormon. FYI, we believe in the Book of Mormon and the Bible AND we follow the prophet. There may be other texts out there that aren't canon, but The Book of Mormon has always been canon (unless you're one of the break off sects, which I can't honestly speak much to).

            Also, I'm curious. What about the Book of Mormon is bizarre? Clearly, how it was found and translated is unusual by today's standards (but not at all by the standards you'd find in the Bible), but what about the actual text is bizarre?

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    Phil H

    Hate to repeat but -- great episode!

    Tom Jocelyn's point about how many "disconnect the dots" is a great observation. But I think one key reason was left out. Many in government, and all elites are very much afraid of overemphasizing terrorism motivated by Islamic jihadism, lest they be called "Islamophobes". This was very much a thing in the Obama administration.

    The inescapsable fact is that spreading Islam by force -- jihad -- is a very important tenet of Islam. (Tom was correct when he talked about the Muslim reaction to Osama bin Laden as reviving jihad). Getting too close to that truth makes many post-religious liberals, very uncomfortable.

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      Victor Clairmont

      Eh, I just l call it like I see it for now.

      Maybe I am wrong, but here I am always open to discussions on information that I may not have right.

      Is it probably poisonous to say this in today’s political climate? Yes.

      Should that stop me personally from saying it factually and as gracefully as possible?

      Nope!

      If I want America to get to a better place, it needs to start with me and how I act. If people cannot handle a serious discussion without intent to slander anyone, the problem is them and not us.

      But yes, I do understand that sometimes truth dies the death of a thousand deaths, before it takes hold in the hearts of men.

      After all, even in America, there was 6000 lynchings after the civil war. Yet truth, will still go marching on. Even if a generation is born that wants to destroy it. The fact that we live in a civilization built on the giants who cane before us, that struggled with far more war, poverty, and tribalism, makes me count all the blessing I have that I can go home and take a millennial nap in peace and comfort, without worrying the government is going to kick down my door and arrest me. Even with the nasty culture war waging.

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        Phil H

        Victor, did you intend this post to be in reply to my comment about "Islamphobia"? I don't see how it fits here.

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          Victor Clairmont

          Sorry, responded to the wrong post phil.

          Hard to follow the lines sometimes.

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      Tracie

      I'm afraid to like this post for fear of being called an Islamophobe.

      There's lotsa Old Testament instructions that we don't heed to the letter anymore. Since I have no expertise in comparative religion, and no familiarity with the Koran, can't speak directly to your point.

      If the UAE and maybe Bahrain can normalize relations with Israel, based probably on pragmatic regional security concerns (i.e. Iran) we should have a little faith that Muslims, too, want to live in the modern world and have peace and prosperity and Mediterranean vacations.

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        Phil H

        I very much agree that the UAE and Bahrain peace treaties are hopeful signs. Most importantly, the more Arab and Muslim countries that make peace with Israel, the more isolated the Palestinians are and the more likely they are to behave themselves and ultimately seek a peace alongside Israel.

        Rulers of Muslim countries are generally pragmatists. Many Muslims interpret "jihad" as an internal spiritual struggle. But a close reading of the Qur'an does not make that evident. You might want to Jihad Watch (https://jihadwatch.org) gto learn more.

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    Pastorfbt

    Such great dense content! Straight into my veins!

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    Butch Earl

    A terrific hour! Thank you Sarah, Steve, and Tom!

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  8. Joseph Wellford

    Great Episode! Re: 9/11 I stumbled upon the NBC's Today show from 9/11. It's interesting because I can remember watching this show, I wasn't at school because I had strep throat, and I was too lazy to change the channel, the lead story is about Michael Jordan coming back to the NBA and then the whole world changed.

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