Is North Korea Preparing for War?

From unification to annexation.

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Jamie is joined by Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist at the American Enterprise Institute, to explain the recent fear that North Korea is preparing for war.

The Agenda:
—The ideological shift in North Korea
—Shifting American policy
—China’s power over North Korea
—Giving Kim Jong-un credit
—North Korea’s prognosis
—Where will we be in 25 years?

Show Notes:
—38 North: Is Kim Jong Un Preparing for War?

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Comments (17)
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  1. Avatar photo
    George.Skinner

    I think a lot of US adversaries are conditioning their calculations on whether Donald Trump returns to power after 2024. For North Korea, they need to hope that Trump abrogates defense agreements with South Korea. That's a pretty good bet given Trump's antipathy toward defense agreements and ignorant devaluation of alliances. A couple more fawning, flattering letters might also go a long way towards helping Trump justify to himself what he's inclined to do anyway. That would satisfy one of North Korea's preconditions for an attack on the South. However, I doubt they'd do anything until the US (and preferably Japan) are distracted by another conflict: a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, further Russian aggression in Europe, maybe a war involving Iran. Even if Trump has pulled US troops out of South Korea, an invasion from the North could provoke a response or intervention from the US. Trump would be humiliated and embarrassed, and might well lash out. If the US is engaged in a major conflict elsewhere, though, the North Koreans would have some confidence that US forces aren't going to be able to reinforce the South.

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    David Chen

    I for one cannot understand the existence of a 'sunshine' movement when the North is so blatant in their hostilities.

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  3. R. James

    It is also worth pointing out that the quote from the DPRK cited in the article is a lot more ominous than the interview let on:

    "At the plenum last month [December 2023], Kim made that shift crystal clear, declaring that 'north-south relations have been completely fixed into the relations between two states hostile to each other and the relations between two belligerent states, not the consanguineous or homogenous ones any more.'

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    Rdbarris

    A very basic question: What does North Korea want? I have always thought that the primary motivation of the Kim family was to enjoy its plundering of the hapless NK population in peace and that it has no delusions about unifying the two countries. It has, I believe, primarily built its nuclear deterrent to avoid a Gaddafi outcome. It seems that its recent strategic shift is an acknowledgement of this. Where am I wrong? What evidence is there that the Kims want anything except staying in power and surviving?

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      Ben Connelly

      I think Kim wants to rule over the whole peninsula

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        Rdbarris

        Hopefully Nick Eberstadt will give his opinion.

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  5. R. James

    The Joey Gallo analogy only works if the PRC isn't some random neighbor but Joe Columbo. He protects Joey and he pays to keep him in his apartment. If Joey bites the hand that feeds him, Joey is getting whacked.

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    Pastorfbt

    Plus one - excellent interview on a very important subject

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  7. Mkliegman

    Excellent interview. But Joe Gallo? If one went with that analogy, one should at least put China in the role of Joe Columbo, who may have been nominally more powerful a figure but unable to control Crazy Joe.

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    1. Philebus

      Yeah, Joey Gallo sent me off on a brain tangent - had to back up to relisten to consider what I'd lost in the moment.

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  8. Phillyex1

    Another great interview by Jamie. In all of these discussions lately about NoKo, Ukraine, Middle East, Taiwan, you can see the looming disaster of an isolationist America. The populists are not only ruining the US, they are going to destroy democracy in large parts of the world.

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      David Chen

      My instincts are to hide in the barrel like the wiley fish.

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      Dave T

      Exactly -- and the two are inextricably connected. Wealth and stability can only happen at home in proportion to their happening everywhere else. In a world menaced by bad actors, everything in America, Norway, Brazil, and Australia gets substantially worse as well.

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    J. Eric

    Interesting and worth my time. Thanks

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  10. Mjc1982

    Very well done interview! An excellent and knowledgeable guest and some insightful and helpful questions from Jamie. Really a very useful podcast episode.

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